EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES!

These matches are played on clay. Two normal sets and a third set will be a match tie break to 10 points.

Muchova (2.04) v Swiatek (1.83)

Due to start at 11 am

Muchova won their only previous meeting. That was on clay in April 2019 in Prague. She won in 3 sets.

Overall results in the last 12 months favour Swiatek. She also made a better start to 2020.

Swiatek has an excellent record on clay and has won 42 of her last 50. Most of those matches were in ITF tournaments.

Muchova has played well during the lockdown. She has beaten Strycova, Siniakova and Kristyna Pliskova on clay.

Swiatek has played just 2 matches during the pandemic. Those were on clay earlier this month. She won both as very strong favourite.

This should be a close match. There’s a decent chance that it goes to 3 sets.

Lay Swiatek around 1.50 and remove liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

Martincova (3.02) v Bencic (1.33)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Bencic has won both their previous meetings. the most recent was on grass in June 2018. She won in straight sets. They have not met on clay.

Their overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 are quite even.

There isn’t too much between their clay results although if we compare just those matches in the main tour events Bencic leads.

Bencic has played just 3 matches during the Covid-19 shutdown. All were on clay. She lost her last match in 3 sets to Schmiedlova.

Martincova has played fairly well on clay during the pandemic. She beat Kristyna Pliskova and Muchova in 3 sets. She lost in 3 sets to Strycova as pre match underdog.

If Bencic plays well she will win but that loss to Schmiedlova was as a very low priced favourite.

I have to favour Bencic to win but we can try a small lay on her around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove the liability at 1.45 to 1.50.

Back Bencic if she goes a break behind and Martincova also holds her own serve.

 

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

We had some interesting matches yesterday. Sinner took a tight match in 2 sets over Khachanov. Tommy Haas started as massive underdog against Struff. He took an early 3-0 lead. Struff pulled him back and seemed to be on his way to winning the tie break but Haas took it. He also took the second set in a tie break.

As expected the fact that the WTA final was moved from grass to an indoor court tipped things towards Svitolina. She broke the Kvitova serve right at the start but Kvitova came back to take a scrappy first set. In the second set Svitolina sorted her serve out and easily levelled the match. She was the stronger player in the match tie break.

Bertens was disappointing against Sevastova. She made far too many errors and clearly has some work to do in the next few weeks.

ATP

Sinner (2.64) v Bautista Agut (1.56)

Due to start at 11 am

This will be their first meeting.

Their win percentages in the last year are quite even although Sinner’s were played mostly in Challengers. His results indoor were stronger.

Bautista Agut has a good long term record indoors but in the last couple of seasons he has just 2 quarter finals and a semi final to his name.

Sinner has already played on this court which is inside an aircraft hanger. Despite being labelled an indoor court one side of it is completely open to the elements.

We have some value on Sinner today. If he can serve well we are likely to see at least 1 tie break. Lay Bautista Agut around 1.30 and remove the liability at 1.60. As it should be a close match laying the first set winner is a good option.

WTA

Petkovic (4.7) v Kvitova (1.21)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Their head to head record is 6-6. Their last meeting was earlier this week in the grass event. Kvitova won in straight sets but Petkovic did cause her a few problems. They have met 3 times indoors with Kvitova winning all of them in straight sets.

Petkovic had a comfortable win over 1268th ranked Vecic yesterday. She was broken at the start of the second set but then broke her opponent’s serve 3 times to close out the match. She has played her first 2 matches of 2020 in Berlin this week. She does have a decent indoor record but a semi final in Linz in October last year was her only recent strong finish.

Kvitova has not had massive success indoors. Her only strong result in the last 4 seasons was when she took the title in St Petersburg in January 2018. She took the first set from Svitolina yesterday in what was actually the final of the grass event. The final was delayed by rain earlier in the week and was moved to the aircraft hanger indoor court.

This could be similar to their match on grass. Kvitova should be too strong but if her issues on serve continue then Petkovic will have opportunities.

We can try a small lay around 1.15 and remove the liability at 1.30. Back Kvitova if she loses set 1.

ATP

Thiem (1.14) v Haas (6.8)

This will be their first meeting.

Thiem has a strong indoor record. He reached the final of the World Tour Finals last November beating both Djokovic and Federer en route. He lost the final in a third set tie break to Tsitsipas.

Haas had an excellent win over Struff yesterday. He also played well earlier in the week on grass and took Sinner to 3 sets.

I don’t expect Haas to pull off another surprise win. Thiem is a level above Struff although his return game is not at its best. He has been serving extremely well.

At this price it could be worth a lay around 1.10 and look to remove the liability at 1.20. Haas’ best hope is to take the sets to tie breaks.

WTA

Svitolina (1.5) v Sevastova (2.68)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Svitolina leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met earlier this week on grass. I had expected Svitolina to struggle a bit in that one but she took it in 2 close sets. They have never met indoors.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 favour Svitolina. She has a much stronger indoor record.

Excellent win over Kvitova for Svitolina yesterday. It was a messy opening set but once she sorted her serve out she was the better player.

Sevastova took advantage of a poor display from Kiki Bertens yesterday. She beat the Dutch player in straight sets. Sevastova has served well this week. She has played very few indoor matches in the last 2 seasons.

Ideally Svitolina gets broken first. Back her if that happens or if she loses set 1.