WTA US Open
Osaka v Gauff 1.71
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Gauff 3-2. Most recent Oct 2024, hard, Gauff by retirement. She won on hard in Aug 2022, 2 sets. Osaka won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %’s are fairly even.

Osaka reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Minnen in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Kasatkina in the 3rd round. Final in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Final in Auckland 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2024.

Gauff reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets against Tomljanovic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. Easy win in the 3rd round. Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2025, Semi finals in Wuhan 2024, Title in Beijing 2024.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Osaka on serve. Stats for their last 10 on hard strongly favour Osaka. She has the higher ROI.
Lay Gauff around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.90. Good chance of 3 sets.

Update: Gauff was broken in the first game. I expected her to be competitive but she did not have a single break point in the match.
I laid Osaka after that first break. In her first 3 service games, Osaka lost just 1 point so I exited. Gauff was broken again when serving at 3-5. I did not enter in the second set.
Osaka won 6-3, 6-2.

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