Osaka (1.61) v Azarenka (2.6)

Due to start at 9 pm

they have played 4 times. Each won 2 although Azarenka’s last “win” was by walkover in the Cincinnati final 2 weeks ago. Azarenka won their only hard court match which was at the Australian Open in 2016. Both Osaka’s wins were on clay. She won in 3 sets at the French Open last season and in Rome in 2018.

Overall results in the last 12 months and in 2020 are strong for both players but slightly favour Osaka. She also has a slight lead on hard courts. Stats for the tournament are better for Azarenka for everything except service holds. Osaka leads that stat 93% v 78%.

Osaka’s game has got stronger with each match. In the Cincinnati tournament and in the early rounds of this one she seemed to be carry a slight injury. She played a superb match against Jennifer Brady in the semi final. She dropped the second set but actually only faced 2 break points and was broken just once.

Azarenka has lost 2 sets so far including 1 against Serena in the semi finals. She weathered a real storm in that one with Serena trying to get the job done in straight sets. She really seems to be enjoying her tennis since the tour resumed.

This should be a great final and I think we will see 3 sets. We have some value on Azarenka. Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove the liability at 1.60. Back Osaka if she goes a break behind or loses the first set.

I had a few questions yesterday about what markets I use. It is always the match odds market on the Betfair Exchange.

Good luck!

Update: It WAS an excellent final! Azarenka was unplayable in the first set and looked like she would over power Osaka. She easily took the set. In the second set she took a 2-0 lead but her level dropped a little and that allowed Osaka to get back into the match. Osaka broke back immediately and took another two breaks of serve to level the match.
Osaka took a 4-1 lead in the deciding set but Azarenka eventually broke back. Another Osaka break gave the opportunity to serve for the title which she managed to do.
Osaka won 1-6, 6-3, 6-3

 

Medvedev (1.95) v Thiem (2.04)

Due to start at 11 pm

Dominic Thiem leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met on a hard court at the Rogers Cup, Canada in August last year. Daniil Medvedev won comfortably in 2 sets. Thiem’s wins were on a clay court in Barcelona in April last year and on an indoor court In St Petersburg in 2018. That match went to a third set tie break.

Overall results in the last 12 months are strong for both players but slightly favour Thiem. Hard court results are excellent for both men but favour Medvedev.

Medvedev hasn’t lost a set so far. His toughest test was against Andrey Rublev in the last round. Two of the three sets went to tie breaks. He didn’t face a single break point. He has been broken 3 times in 15 sets. He reached the final in 2019 losing to Nadal in 5 sets.

Thiem has lost just 1 set in the tournament. That was in the third round against Marin Cilic. He has been broken 8 times.

Stats for the tournament favour Medvedev on serve and everything else favours Thiem but there is very little between them. The sets are going to be very close and I won’t be surprised if it goes to a fifth set. I give Medvedev the edge on these courts. Back him around 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.