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WTA Miami
Shnaider v Bencic 1.48
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Bencic 1-0 (March 2025, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Bencic.

Shnaider lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 tie break win over Valentova in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Adelaide 2026, Semi finals in Ningbo 2025, Title in Monterrey 2025.

Bencic reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 1st round. Easy win over Sonmez in the 2nd round.
3rd Round in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025, Title in Tokyo 2025, Quarter finals in Ningbo 2025, 3rd Round in Wuhan 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Bencic.
Back Bencic around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Bencic in 2 sets.

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Update: Bencic’s price started at 1.42. Shnaider served first and was broken to 30. I laid Bencic at 1.27.

The next 4 games were holds with no break points. Bencic served at 3-2. She went 15-40 behind. I backed her at 1.34. (Hardly worth the bother!). This left me a small free bet on Bencic. Bencic recovered to hold serve. The next 2 games were holds and Shnaider was broken again which gave the set to Bencic.
Shnaider won just 2 of her 11 second serve points in that set. I did not get involved in the second set.

in the second set, the first 7 games were holds. Shnaider served at 3-4 and was broken. Bencic served out the set and the match to 0.

Bencic won 6-3, 6-3.

 

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WTA Miami
Vidmanova 1.58 v Jacquemot
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Vidmanova.

Vidmanova reached a CH semi in Oct. Most of her best results were in ITF’s.

Jacquemot reached Semi finals in Guadalajara 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Vidmanova overall.
Back Vidmanova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Vidmanova in 2 sets.

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Update: Vidmanova started the match at 1.46. That was down from 1.58. Jacquemot served first and was broken to 30. I laid Vidmanova at 1.28 as I did not think she would run away with the set. Vidmanova was broken to 30 in the next game. I removed most of my liability at 1.55, leaving the green on Jacquemot.

In the next game, Jacquemot held to 30 and then broke Vidmanova again to lead 3-1. Vidmanova hit the target price and I moved all the green to her at 2.16. (By backing her with a stake equal to the green that I had on Jacquemot).

In the next game, Vidmanova broke to 15. She then held after saving 2 break points to get the score to 3-3. She broke Jacquemot again to lead 4-3 and held easily in the next game. I hedged at 1.23 .

Jacquemot held to 15 and then broke Vidmanova to 30. The next 2 games were holds to 0 and they went into a tie break. Vidmanova won the tie break 7-5.

The last 3 or 4 games were affected by short rain delays. There was a 25 minute delay during the tie break.

The stats for the first set were fairly even.

Vidmanova served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.23 at the start of the set. She was broken to 30. Her price moved to 1.38. I decided to give Jacquemot chance to hold for a better exit price. Jacquemot was taken to deuce but held. I backed Vidmanova at 1.49 with the same stake that I had used for the lay. I now had green on both players but a bigger green on Vidmanova.

The next 3 games were holds. Jacquemot faced a break point when serving at 2-1 but recovered to hold. When she served at 3-2, She was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.22.

The next 2 games were holds. Vidmanova served at 4-4 and was broken to 30. Jacquemot had not had an easy hold in the set so I placed a small back on Vidmanova at 1.55. In the next game, Jacquemot was broken to 30 and I hedged at 1.29.

Vidmanova was then broken. Jacquemot would serve for the set again. I stayed out this time. There is a pattern that if a player is broken when serving for the set, if they earn the chance to serve for it again, they usually make a much better job of it, even in WTA.

Jacquemot served out the set to 30.

Vidmanova’s stats for that second set were poor. She won just over half her service points.

Vidmanova served first in the third set. The first 2 games were holds. In the next game, Vidmanova was broken after saving 3 break points. I laid Jacquemot at 1.51.

In the next game, Jacquemot went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 2.10. She recovered to hold and led 3-1.

I stayed out after that. The next 3 games were holds. Jacquemot served at 4-3 and was broken after saving 2 break points. Vidmanova served at 5-5 and was broken again. Jacquemot was taken to deuce when serving for the match but did eventually hold.

Jacquemot won 6-7, 7-5, 7-5.