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ATP Basel
Ruud 1.56 v Davidovich Fokina
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Ruud 3-2. Most recent May 2024, clay, Ruud in 5. He won on hard in March 2024, 2 sets. Fokina won on hard in Aug 2023, 3rd set tie break. Fokina won on clay in 2021, 5 sets. Ruud won indoors in 2019, 5 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Ruud leads in 2025.

Ruud lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Halys in the 1st round. Title in Stockholm 2025, Final in Dallas 2025. Semi final of the ATP Finals in Nov.

Fokina beat Sonego in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Brooksby in the 2nd round. He reached the Q final in Brussels (BYE in 1st round). 2nd round In Dallas.

12 month indoor stats favour Ruud on serve and Fokina on return. 2025 stats favour Ruud. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Ruud around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

 

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ATP Vienna
Medvedev 1.51 v Moutet
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Medvedev 2-1. Most recent Oct 2025, indoors, Medvedev in 3. |Moutet won on hard in July 2025, 3 sets. Medvedev won on grass in 2021, 2 sets. Indoor win %’s are a little better for Moutet.

Medvedev needed 3 sets against Borges in the 1st round. He won the Title in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Marseille 2025.

Moutet lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Dzumhur in the 1st round. Final in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

12 month indoor stats favour Medvedev overall. Chance of 3 sets. Their 2025 stats are closer.
Back Medvedev around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Medvedev can be a tricky player to trade. You can never be sure how motivated he is and often makes a slow start before overwhelming his opponent. In this one, we got a little lucky.

Medvedev was broken in the first game. I placed a part stake back on him. Moutet then held to lead 2-0. In the third game, Medvedev faced another break point and I added to my back on him. He recovered to hold.

The next 2 games were both holds. Moutet served at 3-2 and faced a break point. I removed half my liability. Moutet recovered to hold. In Moutet’s next service game, he was broken after saving 2 break points. They were now 4-4. As they were near the end of the set, I hedged, leaving a slightly bigger profit on Medvedev.

The set went to a tie break that Moutet took, 7-3.

In set two, Moutet served first. I laid him. He faced a break point and I removed most of my liability. He faced 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold. The next 3 games were holds. Moutet served at 2-2 and was broken to 15. I hedged evenly. That was either wise or lucky as Medvedev wouldn’t hold serve again. Moutet was broken serving for the match at 5-3 but broke in the next game to take the match.

Moutet won 7-6, 6-4.