Trading Tip – WTA Montreux Challenger, Galfi v Ferro
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WTA Montreux Challenger
Galfi v Ferro 1.71
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10
1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Ferro.
Galfi had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win in the 2nd round. Easy win over Waltert in the q final as underdog.
She reached the 3rd round in Madrid 2026. 2nd round in Linz 2026.
Ferro had a 2 sets win over Barthel as favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Palicova in the 2nd round. Easy win in the q final.
She reached a CH final in July. CH title in April.
12 month and 2026 stats favour Ferro overall. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Ferro around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Match prediction: Ferro in 3 sets.
Update: At the start of the match, Ferro was priced at 1.64.
Galfi served first. She was broken to 30. Ferro’s price only dropped to 1.45. I waited for a better price.
0-1
Ferro held to 30.
0-2
Galfi went 15-40 behind. I laid Ferro at 1.27. Galfi saved one of the break points but was then broken.
0-3
Ferro held to 0.
0-4
Galfi went 15-40 behind. I hedged for a loss at 1.17.Galfi recovered to hold!
1-4
Ferro was taken to deuce twice but held serve.
1-5
Galfi was broken for a third time to give the set to Ferro.
1-6
Not surprisingly, stats for Ferro were very strong and very weak for Galfi. Galfi did have a very good first serve percentage of 71%.
After the set, Ferro was priced at 1.14/1.15.
Matches that start with a 6-1 set often turn around, especially in matches where the pre match assessment suggested a close match.
Ferro served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.15. She was broken to 0.
1-0
Galfi held to 30. I removed most of my liability at 1.38.
2-0
The next 2 games were holds.
2-1
3-1
Ferro was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.63.
4-1
The next 3 games were easy holds.
5-1
5-2
6-2
Stats for the set were much improved from Galfi. Ferro first serve points won percentage and especially her second serve points won had dropped.
After the set, Ferro was priced at 1.84/1.85.
The price on Ferro was tempting as my pre match favourite. I placed a small back on her at 1.84.
Ferro served first. She went 40-0 ahead and I was pleased that I had backed at the start. She was then pulled back to deuce and I was wishing I had waited before entering! She managed to hold.
0-1
Galfi went 15-40 behind and I hedged at 1.36. She saved 2 break points but was eventually broken.
0-2
I did not enter again. I am usually looking to lay the player who breaks first in 3rd sets. That would have worked OK in this match, as long as I had exited at break point. Ferro saved 2 break points in the next game. Galfi did not win another game.
0-6
Ferro won 6-1, 2-6, 6-0.
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