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WTA Bogota
Udvardy 1.93 v Arango
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Udvardy 2-1. Most recent Nov 2024, clay, Arango in 3rd set tie break. Udvardy won on hard in 2022, 2 tie breaks. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Udvardy.

Udvardy had a 3 sets win as 1.01 favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite.2 sets win over Kawa as underdog in the q final.
She reached CH q finals in March and Dec. CH title and final in Nov. Quarter finals in Iasi 2025.

Arango lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Carle in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Reales in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Lepchenko in the q final.
2nd round of the French Open. 2nd round in Rome 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Udvardy on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Arango around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Udvardy in 3 sets.

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Update: Arango started at 1.87. Udvardy served first. The first 5 games were holds. Udvardy faced 1 break point in her 2nd and 3rd service games.

Arango served at 2-3. She was broken to 15. As I expected a close match and 3 sets, I laid Udvardy at 1.56.

In the next game, Udvardy went 15-40 behind and I removed half my liability at 1.79. She saved 1 break point but was broken. Udvardy’s price moved to 1.85.

The nest 2 games were holds. Arango served at 4-5 and faced a break point / set point but recovered to hold. At 5-5, I hedged evenly at 2.14 on Udvardy’s ladder. Anything could happen from here.

Udvardy was broken in the next game and Arango served for the set but was broken. They went into a tie break that Arango won 8-6.

Stats for the set were a little better for Arango overall. she had the better First Serve percentage.

Udvardy served first in the second set. I let her have her service game, which she held to 15, and then laid Arango at 1.27.

The next 5 games were holds with no break points. I intended staying with the lay until the score got to 4-4. Arango served at 3-3 and was broken to 0. I removed liability at 1.74.

In Udvardy’s next service game, She led 30-15 when the match was delayed by rain. I hung around to see if it was going to be a long delay. After 30 minutes, I hedged evenly at 1.80 and did not wait for the match to resume.

When the match did resume, Udvardy held to 30 and broke Arango again to take the set.

Udvardy served first in the third set. She was broken. In the next game, Arango was broken and then broke Udvardy again! The next 3 games were holds.

Udvardy served at 2-4. She was broken after saving 2 break points. The next 4 games were BREAK, HOLD, BREAK, HOLD for Udvardy.

Arango served at 5-6 and held to 30. They went into another tie break. This time, Udvardy won the tie break 7-5.

Udvardy won 6-7, 6-3, 7-6.

 

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WTA Charleston
Jovic v Kalinskaya 1.85
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Jovic.

Jovic had an easy win over Parks in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kenin in the 3rd round.
She reached the 2nd round of the French Open 2025 2nd round in Bogota 2025. ITF title in Apr 2025.

Kalinskaya reached the Quarter final last season. 2 sets win over Tomova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Badosa in the 3rd round.
Quarter finals in Strasbourg 2025. 3rd round in Madrid 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Kalinskaya on serve.
Lay Jovic around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.95.

Match prediction: Kalinskaya in 3 sets.

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Update: Kalinskaya started at 1.81. Jovic served first and held to 15. In the next game, Kalinskaya was broken to 30. I laid Jovic at 1.65.

The next 4 games were holds. Jovic served at 4-2 and went 0-40 behind. As we were potentially close to the end of the set, I hedged at 1.94. Jovic was broken. In the next game, Kalinskaya was broken again. Jovic served for the set and was taken to deuce twice but held.

Stats for the set were better for Jovic. Kalinskaya had a low first serve percentage of 55% and won just 3 of her 14 second serve points.

At the end of the first set, Jovic was priced at 1.41. Kalinskaya served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 15. I laid Jovic at 1.23.

In the next game, Jovic was broken to 30. my current position was risk free due to having some profit in the first set so I let the lay run.

The next 3 games were easy holds. Jovic served at 2-3 and was broken to 15. I hedged at 2.10 on Jovic’s ladder.

Kalinskaya was broken in the next game. In fact, she would not win another game.

Jovic won 6-3, 6-4.