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WTA Cluj
Yuan v Snigur 1.55
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Snigur 1-0 (Nov 2019, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Snigur.

Yuan had won 1 of her 4 indoor matches. 3 sets win over Ruzic in the 1st round as underdog. 3rd set tie break win over Sorribes Tormo in the 2nd round.

Snigur lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. The year she has again come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Rajaonah in the 1st round. Surprisingly easy win over Cristian in the 2nd round.
ITF title in Nov. ITF semi in Oct. ITF final in Feb 2025.

12 month indoor stats favour Snigur. 12 month hard stats are stronger for Yuan on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Snigur around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Snigur served first. She went 0-40 behind. Her price went to 1.83. I waited for the break. She saved 2 of the break points but was then broken. The price was still 1.83. I backed Snigur, but as I didn’t get my target price, I reduced the stake.

Yuan was taken to deuce twice in the next game but she held serve. I added to my position by backing Snigur at 2.04.

Snigur served next and held to 30. In the next game, Yuan went 15-40 behind. Snigur’s price hit 1.60 and I removed my liability, leaving the green on Snigur. She completed the break of serve. The next 2 games were holds to 15.

Snigur served at 3-3. She faced and saved 2 break points. Yuan had another break point which she did convert to lead 4-3. I stayed with my free bet on Snigur. The next 3 games were holds with no break points. Yuan took the set.

Snigur served first in the 2nd set. Yuan’s price after the first set was 1.60. Snigur’s stats were poor in the first set so I let her have her service game before I added to my position. Snigur held to 30. I placed a small lay of Yuan at 1.78.

Yuan was broken to 30. I removed my liability by laying Snigur at 1.83 (2.20 on Yuan’s ladder). I now had a larger free bet on Snigur.

Snigur then had another hold to 30. She led 3-0. In the next game, Yuan was again broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.50.

Snigur had a 3rd hold to 30 and broke Yuan again to take the set.

In the third set, the first 3 games were easy holds. Yuan served at 1-2 and was broken to 15. In WTA, the player who breaks first in a 3rd set indoors is broken back 53% of the time. I laid Snigur at 1.15. I had no liability as I was already in profit.

Yuan was broken to 15. I hedged evenly at 1.38. The next 2 games were long ones. Yuan faced and saved 2 break points. Snigur was taken to 4 deuces but held. Yuan then held to 30 to get to 4-4.

Snigur served next. She was broken to 0. Yuan’s price was 1.32. She was about to serve for the match. She had not served well in the 2nd and 3rd sets. I already had some profit so I used some of it to lay Yuan at 1.32.

Yuan went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 1.93 and I hedged.

Snigur served at 5-5. She faced 2 break points and was at deuce 5 times but she held. Yuan serve at 5-6. She went 30-40 behind but saved the match point. She faced another match point and this time, Snigur was able to take it.

Snigur won 4-6, 6-0, 7-5.

 

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WTA Abu Dhabi
Tjen 1.86 v Joint
Due to start at 9:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Tjen.

Tjen reached the 2nd round of the Australian Open. Title in Chennai 2025, Final in Sao Paulo 2025.

Joint reached the Quarter finals in Adelaide 2026, Semi finals in Hong Kong 2025, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025, Semi finals in Seoul 2025, 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Merida 2025.

12 month stats favour Tjen on serve. Stats for their last 10 are stronger for Tjen overall.
Lay Joint around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Tjen in 3 sets.

Update: Tjen served first. She held after being taken to deuce. In the next game, Joint faced a break point. I could have laid Tjen at 1.49 but decided to wait for the break. Tjen did break and as I was expecting a tight match, I laid Tjen at 1.39.

In the next game, Tjen faced a break point. I removed a little liability at 1.49 but wanted a better price before I removed any more. She saved the break point but faced another one and this time, Joint got the break. I removed all my liability at 1.61, leaving the green on Tjen.

The next 3 games were holds to 30. Tjen served at 3-3 and was broken to 15. Joint could be laid at 1.65 which was my original target entry price. I already had a position on Tjen but as I would be laying Joint if she took the set, I added a small lay of Joint at 1.65.

The next 2 games were holds. In Tjen’s service game, she faced a break point which was also a set point but she saved it. Joint then served for the set at 5-4. She went 40-0 ahead so I obviously thought the set was over. Tjen saved 4 set points in that game and eventually broke to get to 5-5. I hedged evenly at 1.85 on Tjen’s ladder.

Tjen served at 5-5 and held to 15. In Joint’s next service game, Tjen had 2 break points/set points but Joint recovered to take it into a tie break. Joint had a set point in the tie break but it was Tjen who won the tie break and the set.

Joint served first in set 2. I waited for her to have her service game before laying Tjen. Joint was broken and I laid Tjen at 1.14. I kept it risk free using the profit from set 1.

Tjen was broken in the next game. I could have hedged at 1.27 but as I had a no risk position, I decided to give Joint a chance to take the set.

The next 3 games were holds to 15. Tjen served at 2-3. She was broken to 0. I hedged at 1.74. There were no more breaks in the set and they went into a deciding set.

I wanted to move to another match so did not get involved in the 3rd set. There was just 1 break of serve which went to Tjen.

Tjen won 7-6, 3-6, 6-3.