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ATP Monte Carlo
Moutet 1.56 v Muller
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Moutet 3-2. Most recent July 2025, hard, Moutet in 2. he won on clay in July 2020, 2 sets. Muller won indoors in 2019, 3 sets. Muller won on clay in June 2017, 3 sets. Moutet won on clay in 2017, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Muller.

Moutet lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year.
4th Round in Rome 2025, 2nd Round in Rome 2025.

Muller reached the 2nd round last season. This week he has come through the qual rounds.
Quarter finals in Hamburg 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Moutet.
Back Moutet around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Moutet in 2 sets.

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Update: Muller served first and was broken to 30. Moutet’s price only dropped to 1.39, If the price had been lower, I would probably have laid him.

In the next game, Moutet was broken after saving 2 break points. His price rose to 1.66. In the next game, Muller went 15-0 ahead and the Moutet
price moved to 1.81. I backed Moutet with part stake. Muller was broken to 15.

In the next game, Moutet had to save 2 break points but did get his first hold to lead 3-1. The next 6 games were all easy holds and Moutet took the set 6-4.

After the set, I removed liability at 1.29 to leave a free bet on Moutet. As i was expecting a straight sets win, I did not enter in the second set.

Moutet took a double break, 4-0 lead in the second set. He ended the set and the match with another break when Muller served at 1-5.

Moutet won 6-4, 6-1.

 

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WTA Bogota
Udvardy 1.93 v Arango
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Udvardy 2-1. Most recent Nov 2024, clay, Arango in 3rd set tie break. Udvardy won on hard in 2022, 2 tie breaks. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Udvardy.

Udvardy had a 3 sets win as 1.01 favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite.2 sets win over Kawa as underdog in the q final.
She reached CH q finals in March and Dec. CH title and final in Nov. Quarter finals in Iasi 2025.

Arango lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Carle in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Reales in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Lepchenko in the q final.
2nd round of the French Open. 2nd round in Rome 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Udvardy on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Arango around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Udvardy in 3 sets.

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Update: Arango started at 1.87. Udvardy served first. The first 5 games were holds. Udvardy faced 1 break point in her 2nd and 3rd service games.

Arango served at 2-3. She was broken to 15. As I expected a close match and 3 sets, I laid Udvardy at 1.56.

In the next game, Udvardy went 15-40 behind and I removed half my liability at 1.79. She saved 1 break point but was broken. Udvardy’s price moved to 1.85.

The nest 2 games were holds. Arango served at 4-5 and faced a break point / set point but recovered to hold. At 5-5, I hedged evenly at 2.14 on Udvardy’s ladder. Anything could happen from here.

Udvardy was broken in the next game and Arango served for the set but was broken. They went into a tie break that Arango won 8-6.

Stats for the set were a little better for Arango overall. she had the better First Serve percentage.

Udvardy served first in the second set. I let her have her service game, which she held to 15, and then laid Arango at 1.27.

The next 5 games were holds with no break points. I intended staying with the lay until the score got to 4-4. Arango served at 3-3 and was broken to 0. I removed liability at 1.74.

In Udvardy’s next service game, She led 30-15 when the match was delayed by rain. I hung around to see if it was going to be a long delay. After 30 minutes, I hedged evenly at 1.80 and did not wait for the match to resume.

When the match did resume, Udvardy held to 30 and broke Arango again to take the set.

Udvardy served first in the third set. She was broken. In the next game, Arango was broken and then broke Udvardy again! The next 3 games were holds.

Udvardy served at 2-4. She was broken after saving 2 break points. The next 4 games were BREAK, HOLD, BREAK, HOLD for Udvardy.

Arango served at 5-6 and held to 30. They went into another tie break. This time, Udvardy won the tie break 7-5.

Udvardy won 6-7, 6-3, 7-6.