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WTA Madrid qualifying
Masarova v Sramkova 1.92
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Masarova 2-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Masarova in 3. Sramkova won on hard in March 2024, 2 sets. Masarova won indoors in 2016, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Masarova.

Masarova reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year.
CH q final in July. CH final in May.

Sramkova lost in the 1st round last season.
CH q final in April 2026. 2nd round in Strasbourg 2025. 2nd round in Rome 2025.

12 month WTA stats favour Masarova overall. 12 month CH stats also favour her overall.
Lay Sramkova around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Masarova in 3 sets.

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Update: Sramkova served first. She was broken to 30. I laid Masarova at 1.65.

Masarova then held to 0. In the next game, Sramkova faced and saved 5 break points. Masarova then had another easy hold to lead 3-1. This was looking very one sided. I hedged for a loss at 1.42.

In the next game, Sramkova was broken to 0. Masarova was now a double break up so I laid her at 1.25. She was broken to 30 in the next game. Her price rose to 1.38. I decided to give Sramkova a chance to hold. She did hold to 30. I hedged at 1.45. That almost cancelled out my red position.

Masarova then held after being taken to deuce twice. Sramkova was then broken to 15 to give Masarova the set.

Stats for the set were much better for Masarova. A terrible set from Sramkova, especially on second serve.

I was not in a rush to lay Masarova. I wanted to wait to see if she could go up by a set and a break for a better lay opportunity.

The first 3 games were easy holds. Sramkova served at 1-2. She saved 6 break points but was broken on the 7th break point. I laid Masarova at 1.06.

The next 2 games were holds to 30. Masarova served at 4-2. She went 15-40 behind and I could have hedged at 1.11. I waited for the break. She was broken to 15 and I hedged at 1.16.

The next 4 games were holds. Sramkova served at 5-6 and was broken to 15.

Masarova won 6-3, 7-5.

 

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ATP Munich
Cobolli v Shelton 1.93
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Shelton 3-2. Most recent Oct 2025, indoors, Shelton in 2. 3rd set tie break win on hard in Aug 2025. 2 tie breaks win on hard for Shelton in Feb 2025. Cobolli won on hard in Aug 2024, 3 sets. 3 sets win on clay in May 2024. Clay win %’s favour Cobolli.

Cobolli lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Bergs in the 2nd round. Easy win over Kopriva in the q final. 2 sets win over Zverev as underdog in the semi final.
3rd Round at the French Open 2025, Title in Hamburg 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Shelton reached the Final last season. 3 sets win over Nava in the 1st round. 2 close sets win over Blockx. 3 sets win over Fonseca as underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Molcan in the semi final.
4th Round at the French Open 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Shelton on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Shelton on serve and strongly favour Cobolli on return.
Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cobolli around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Shelton in 3 sets.

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Update: By the time the match started, Cobolli was 1.86 favourite.

Cobolli served first and was broken to 15. I laid Shelton at 1.65.

In the next game, Shelton faced break point at 30-40. The price moved to 1.78. I wanted a better price so I waited for the break. Shelton saved the break point. He then faced another. The price moved to 1.80. Shelton also saved that break point. The price moved to 1.84. There was another break point! The price hit 1.90. I removed liability by backing Shelton using the same stake that I had used to lay him.

There were 6 break points in that game but Shelton held to lead 2-0. In the next game, Cobolli was broken to 0. I hedged at 1.39.

There were no more breaks in the set although Cobolli faced 6 break points / set points when he served at 1-5. Shelton served out the set to 30.

Stats for the set favoured Shelton on first serve points won percentage. Other stats were fairly even.

I had some profit from the first set. I laid Shelton at the start of set 2 at 1.32.

The first 8 games were easy holds. Only 2 of them saw the returner get to 30. 4-4 is my exit point if I have laid the set 1 winner. I hedged at 1.36.

Cobolli served at 5-5 and was broken to 30. Shelton easily served out the set to 15.

Shelton won 6-2, 7-5.