ATP Buenos Aires Cerundolo 1.56 v Etcheverry Due to start at 7 pm Confidence rating 7.5/10
Cerundolo 6-4. Most recent July 2025, hard, Cerundolo in 2. Cerundolo won on clay in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Etcheverry won on hard in Aug 2024, 5 sets. All their other matches were on clay. Etcheverry won in March 2023, 3 sets. Cerundolo won in Aug 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Cerundolo.
Cerundolo reached the Final last year. 2 sets win over Dellien in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kopriva in the q final. Semi finals in Bastad 2025, 4th Round in Rome 2025, Semi finals in Madrid 2025, Semi finals in Munich 2025, Semi finals in Santiago 2025, Quarter finals in Rio de Janeiro 2025.
Etcheverry lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win as favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Burruchaga in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the q final. Semi finals in Hamburg 2025, Quarter finals in Santiago 2025.
12 month clay stats and stats for their last 10 are better for Etcheverry on serve. Good chance of 3 sets. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Cerundolo on serve. Back Cerundolo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: Cerundolo’s price dropped to 1.43 pre match. Cerundolo served first. He faced a break point in a long game but recovered to hold. Easy hold for Etcheverry in the second game. Cerundolo also had an easy service hold to lead 2-1.
In the next game, Etcheverry was broken after leading 40-0. As I expected a close match, I laid Cerundolo but didn’t use a large stake as I was confident that Cerundolo would win. I laid Cerundolo at 1.24. When Cerundolo had an easy hold to get to 5-2, I hedged evenly for a small loss at 1.17. There were no more break points in the set and Cerundolo took the set 6-3.
In the first set, Cerundolo’s stats were stronger. Their first serve percentages were quite even. First serve points won percentages and second serve points won percentages were better for Cerundolo. Etcheverry’ s stats were decent.
I laid Cerundolo at the start of set 2 at 1.15. There were no break points in the first 8 games. If I have laid the set one winner and they get to 4-4, I exit. This can take away a chance of a profit if there is a late break for the first set loser but more often than not, this exit strategy saves me. In this case, I was able to exit at 1.17. This left me a small loss for the match.
Etcheverry served at 4-4 and faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. Cerundolo then held to 0. Etcheverry was broken in the next game to 15. Cerundolo successfully served out the set and the match.
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