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Trading Tip – Ostrava Challenger, Sanchez-Izquierdo v Gentzsch

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Trading Tips 1st May

Ostrava Challenger
Sanchez-Izquierdo v Gentzsch 1.83
Due to start at 11:30 am

Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Gentzsch.

Sanchez-Izquierdo had a 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Sachko as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Svrcina as huge underdog in the q final.
CH q finals in April and March. CH semi in Jan. 5 CH q finals in July and Aug.

Gentzsch had a 2 sets win as favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Piros in the 2nd round as underdog. 3 sets win over Molleker in the q final.
CH final in March. CH semi in Sep.

12 month CH stats favour Gentzsch on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour him.
Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Sanchez-Izquierdo around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Gentzsch in 3 sets.

Trading Tip - Ostrava Challenger, Sanchez-Izquierdo v Gentzsch 1
Image from https://www.hamburger-tennisverband.de/Der-Verband-1

 
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Trading Tip – ATP Madrid, Khachanov v Mensik

Trading Tip - ATP Madrid, Khachanov v Mensik 2


ATP Madrid
Khachanov v Mensik 1.68
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Khachanov 2-0. Most recent March 2025, hard, 3 sets. He won on hard in 2024, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Mensik.

Khachanov reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Walton in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the French Open 2025, 4th Round in Rome 2025.

Mensik reached the Quarter final last season. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
4th Round in Rome 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Mensik on serve.
Back Mensik around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Mensik in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Mensik started the match priced at 1.59 (down from 1.68)

Mensik served first and held to 0
0-1

Khachanov held to 30.
1-1

Mensik held to 15.
1-2

Khachanov was taken to deuce twice and saved a break point and held.
2-2.

The next 5 games were holds with no break points.
2-3
3-3
3-4
4-4
4-5

Khachanov saved a break point / set point. He faced another break point and was broken to give the set to Mensik.
4-6

Stats for the set favoured Mensik. He did not face a break point. Decent first serve percentage. Khachanov faced 3 break points. His first serve percentage was lowish at 58% and his second serve points won were also low at 33%.

Set 1 stats


I laid Mensik at 1.19 after the first set. He served first in set 2.

The first 5 games were holds with no break points.
0-1
1-1
1-2
2-2
2-3

Khachanov faced a break point but saved it and held serve.
3-3

The next 2 games were holds.
3-4
4-4

When I have laid the set 1 winner and the score gets to 4-4, I exit. The market can get quite volatile after that. I hedged at 1.21.

It was also quite a relief! From a trading point of view, this was a boring match. It’s an hour and 20 minutes that I won’t get back. What will I spend my 2 ticks profit on?

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-5
5-5
5-6
6-6

In the tie break, Khachanov did have 4 set points. Mensik had 2 math points that he did not take. he had a third match point at 11-12 and this time he took it.
6-7

Mensik won 6-4, 7-6.

 
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