ATP Australian Open Cerundolo 1.46 v Zhang Due to start at 2 am Confidence rating 7/10
Zhang 2-1. Most recent June 2023, grass, Cerundolo in 2. Zhang won on grass in 2021, 4 sets. He won on hard in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Cerundolo.
Cerundolo reached the 3rd round last year. 4th Round in Toronto 2025, Quarter finals in Miami 2025, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2025.
Zhang lost in the 1st round last season. Just 1 ATP 2nd round in 2025.
12 month stats favour Zhang on serve but most of his wins were in qual rounds. Back Cerundolo around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
WTA Adelaide Andreeva 1.54 v Mboko Due to start at 2 am Confidence rating 7/10
1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.
Andreeva had an easy win over Bouzkova in the 2nd round. Very easy win over Joint in the Quarter final. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the Semi final. She reached the Quarter final in Brisbane last week. She reached the 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2025.
Mboko had a 3 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win over Kalinskaya in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Keys as underdog in the Quarter final. Easy win over Birrell in the Semi final. She reached the Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.
12 month stats favour Andreeva. Stats for their last 10 favour Mboko. Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Andreeva around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Mboko served first. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 30. As I was expecting a tight match, I backed Andreeva at 2.26.
The next 2 games were holds of serve. Mboko served at 3-1 and was broken to 15. I removed most of my liability by laying Andreeva at 1.73.
Andreeva then had an easy hold to get to 3-3. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 15 and I hedged evenly at 1.28.
Andreeva had an easy hold in the next game and Mboko was broken for a third time to give Andreeva the set. Mboko’s stats in the first set were weak. She won 50% of first serve points and 33% of 2nd serve points. She also had only 1 break point on Andreeva’s serve. She certainly wasn’t performing as expected!
When deciding whether or not to lay the set 1 winner, I look at how the losing player ended the set compared to how they started it. Mboko had been broken in her last 3 service games. I did not lay Andreeva at the start of set 2.
Andreeva started the second set with an easy hold and Mboko was then broken for the fourth time in a row. I need a good reason to turn down the chance to lay a player when they are a set and a break ahead. Mboko was really struggling and I stayed out.
Andreeva then held to 0. In her next service game, Mboko faced another break point in her next service game but did recover to hold. Andreeva held to 15. Mboko was then broken to 15 and Andreeva served out the match to 30.
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