WTA Challenger, Dubrovnik Garcia v Sherif 1.75 Due to start at 12:00 Confidence rating 7/10
H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2021, clay, Sherif in a 3rd set tie break. Garcia won on clay in Oct 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Garcia.
Garcia had an easy win in the 1st round. Easy wins in the 2nd round and q final. CH semi in Oct. CH semi in Sep. She has had a lot of ITF success in the last year.
Sherif had 2 sets wins in the 1st and 2nd rounds. 3 sets win over Gormaz in the q final. CH semi in Feb. CH final and 2 CH semis in Nov. CH semi in July.
12 month CH stats favour Sherif. Stats for their last 10 favour Garcia on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets. Back Sherif around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.
Update: Sherif served first. The first 3 games were holds.
Garcia served at 1-2 and faced a break point at 30-40. She saved the break point and held serve. In the next game, Sherif was broken to 30. I backed Sherif at 2.26.
In the next game, Garcia faced a break point. Sherif’s price dropped to 2.02 and I removed half the liability. Garcia recovered to hold.
In the next game, Sherif faced a break point but held serve. Garcia then held to 15. In the next game, Sherif was broken to give the set to Garcia.
Sherif’s 1st serve points won percentage was 50%. With a healthy 1st serve percentage, this was a problem for her. Second serve points won were above tour average at 63%. Garcia had a low first serve percentage of 51% and she won 56% of second serve points. That 56% is above the tour average but when she is playing almost half her service points with a second serve, she is making life difficult for herself.
I felt that Sherif had a chance to recover in the second set.
Garcia served first in the second set. I already had a position on Sherif from the first set. I added to that by laying Garcia at 1.32.
Garcia was broken to 15. Garcia’s price moved to 1.51. I gave Sherif a chance to hold her serve. She was taken to deuce twice and faced a break point but she held. I removed my liability at 1.75.
In the next game, Garcia served at 0-2 and faced a break point. I hedged at 1.90. Garcia recovered to hold.
The next 2 games were holds. Sherif served at 3-2 and was broken to 0. I laid Garcia at 1.37.
In the next game, Garcia faced a break point at 30-40. The market didn’t react as much as I would have hoped but I hedged at 1.47. If Garcia recovered to hold we were potentially a couple of games away from the end of the match. Also, Sherif wasn’t serving particularly well.
Garcia did recover to hold. In the next game, Sherif had to save 4 break points but recovered to hold serve. In the next game, Sherif broke to 15 to lead 5-4. I placed a small back on Garcia at 1.87. I was not confident that Sherif would serve out the set.
Sherif was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.40.
Garcia was then broken again and Sherif had a chance to serve for the set again. I stayed out this time. If a player is broken serving for the set but then earns the chance to serve for it again, they usually do a better job. On this occasion, Sherif did have 2 set points but couldn’t take them. She then saved a break point but was eventually broken.
They went into a tie break. Garcia went a double mini break up at 3-0. She led 5-1 but Sherif recovered to get back on serve at 4-5. She lost both her serves to hand the match to Garcia.
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