Free Tennis Tips

WTA US Open
Osaka v Gauff 1.71
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Gauff 3-2. Most recent Oct 2024, hard, Gauff by retirement. She won on hard in Aug 2022, 2 sets. Osaka won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Hard win %’s are fairly even.

Osaka reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Minnen in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. She needed 3 sets against Kasatkina in the 3rd round. Final in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Final in Auckland 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2024.

Gauff reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets against Tomljanovic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Vekic in the 2nd round. Easy win in the 3rd round. Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2025, Semi finals in Wuhan 2024, Title in Beijing 2024.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Osaka on serve. Stats for their last 10 on hard strongly favour Osaka. She has the higher ROI.
Lay Gauff around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.90. Good chance of 3 sets.

Update: Gauff was broken in the first game. I expected her to be competitive but she did not have a single break point in the match.
I laid Osaka after that first break. In her first 3 service games, Osaka lost just 1 point so I exited. Gauff was broken again when serving at 3-5. I did not enter in the second set.
Osaka won 6-3, 6-2.

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US Open
Zverev 1.32 v Aliassime
Due to start at midnight
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Zverev 7-2. Most recent March 2024, hard, Zverev in 2. He won on clay in May 2022, 2 sets. Aliassime won on hard in Jan 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Zverev.

Zverev reached the Quarter final last year. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 1st round. 3 close sets win in the 2nd round. Semi finals in Cincinnati 2025, Semi finals in Toronto 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, Final at the Australian Open 2025, 4th Round in Shanghai 2024.

Aliassime lost in the 1st round last season. 3 close sets win over Harris in the 1st round. 3 close sets win in the 2nd round. Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, Final in Dubai 2025, Semi finals in Doha 2025, Title in Adelaide 2025.

12 month ad 2025 stats are stronger for Zverev. 4 sets.
Back Zverev around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Zverev broke in the first game of the match. I laid him. 3 games later, Aliassime broke back. I removed liability, leaving profit on Zverev. Zverev broke again and went on to take the set.
I expect Aliassime to take a set so I laid Zverev at the start of set 2. My liability was low.

It was a very close set with no break points. I stayed in the lay as my risk was low. Aliassime took the tie break after saving a set point.

Zverev served first in set 3. He was broken and i hedged evenly. Aliassime held to lead 2-0 and I backed Zverev. In the 4th game of the set, Aliassime went 15-40 behind and I removed my liability, leaving profit on Zverev. Unfortunately, Zverev did not break. Aliassime went on to take the set.

If I didn’t already have a position on Zverev, I would have backed. I stuck with the free bet on him but Aliassime took the next set and the match with a single break.

Aliassime won 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.

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