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WTA Colina Challenger
Monnet v Erjavec 1.50
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating: 7.5/10

Erjavec 3-1. Most recent Sep 2025, clay, Erjavec in 2. She won on clay in July 2025 and on clay in 2022, 2 sets. Monnet won on clay in 2017, 3 sets. Clay win %’s are even.

Monnet reached a CH final in Oct. CH semi in Sep.

Erjavec won 2 CH titles in Sep. CH q final in June. CH semi in March.

12 month and 2025 CH stats are stronger for Erjavec on serve. return stats are fairly even.
Back Erjavec around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Erjavec in 3 sets.

Update: There were rain delays in Colina and this match was delayed by almost 3 hours. Rain delays can change matches as the players are hanging around not knowing when they will actually get on to the court.

Erjavec served first and went 15-40 behind. Her price went to 1.68 which was a little too low to enter. I waited for the break. She recovered to hold serve. The next 2 games were holds to 30.

Monnet served at 1-2 and was broken to 30. I was expecting a close match so I laid Erjavec at 1.27. Erjavec had not looked comfortable on serve.

In the next game, Erjavec again struggled on serve and faced a break point. Her price went to 1.38. I could have removed some of the liability but I wanted a better price so I waited. Erjavec recovered to hold. The next game was an easy hold for Monnet. Erjavec continued to have problems on serve and in the next game, she faced another break point. She was likely to be broken eventually, so I waited. This time, Monnet got the break. I removed almost all the liability at 1.52.

So at this point, I had my profit on Erjavec with a small red on Monnet. Monnet was serving slightly better and had only faced 1 break point. Erjavec had faced 4 break points. Monnet served at 3-4 and had her worst service game of the set. She saved 3 break points but was broken on the 4th to trail 3-5.

I certainly didn’t trust Erjavec to serve out the set so I hedged evenly at 1.30. The market also didn’t seem to trust her! Erjavec faced 4 break points when serving for the set but somehow managed to hold.

Monnet served first in set 2. I waited for her to have her service game before laying Erjavec. Monnet was broken to 15. I laid Erjavec at 1.13.

Erjavec was taken to deuce in the next game but held serve to lead 2-0. In the next game, Monnet was broken again. Erjavec’s price was 1.04. She was having a terrible day on serve. The profit from the first set meant that when I laid Erjavec, I had zero liability I felt that I had to add to the lay at 1.04. Second sets can be very different to the first set but I wasn’t sure she could suddenly start serving well. I added to my lay of Erjavec at 1.04 leaving a small(ish) liability. If Erjavec ran away with the set, there would be nothing I could do to save any of the loss so I had to be prepared to lose the liability I had on Erjavec.

Just as I placed my lay, Monnet called for a medical time out. Great! When the match continued, Erjavec was broken to 0! Monnet then held serve easily. I removed my liability at 1.23. I left the large green on Monnet. In the next game, Erjavec went 15-40 behind. I backed Erjavec at 1.51 to move some of the profit to her but left the much larger profit on Monnet. Erjavec saved the 2 break points but had another which she did take. 3-3!

Another easy hold for Monnet gave her a 4-3 lead. Both players had poor stats in the set but Erjavec’s were awful. In the next game, Erjavec was broken for the 3rd time in a row. Broken to 0. I hedged evenly at 1.70 on Monnet’s ladder (around 2.40 on Erjavec’s ladder).

Monnet was broken serving for the set but Erjavec was then broken for the 4th time in a row to give Monnet the set. I did not get involved in the 3rd set but Erjavec held to 0 in her first service game and was broken in her 3 other service games!.

Monnet won 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.

The graphs below show how the players’ stats changed during the match. You can see the decline in Erjavec’s 1st serve points won and 2nd serve points won percentages. It was her 2nd serve that just about held her together in that first set.

 

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Bergamo Challenger
Topo v Choinski (start price 1.64)
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating: 7.5/10

Choinski 1-0 (Sep 2025, clay, 3rd set tie break). Indoor win %’s favour Choinski.

Topo has very little indoor success. Most of his wins were in qual rounds.

Choinski reached a CH q final in March. CH q final in Nov 2024.

Recent performances are better for Choinski.
Back Choinski around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Choinski in 2 sets.

Update: Tight match with just 1 break of serve! This match is a good example of why trading is often a much better option than a straight punt.

Topo served first and faced a break point but he recovered to hold. The next 4 games were easy holds.

Choinski served at 2-3. He went 15-30 behind and I backed him at 2.00. He faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold. Topo then held to 30. After Choinski held to 0 to get to 4-4, his lay price hit 1.64 and I removed all my liability to leave a free bet on Choinski.

The next 3 games were holds of serve. When Choinski served at 5-6, he faced a break point/set point but recovered to hold. They went to a tie break. Tiebreaks are near impossible to predict so I hedged evenly at 1.71. Topo took the tie break 7-3.

Choinski doesn’t have a good record of recovering after losing the first set. In fact, in the last 12 months, he has never taken the 2nd set indoors after losing the first set. He was serving first in the 2nd set so I waited for him to have his service game before laying Topo. Choinski was broken to 0. I had the option of walking away or trying a lay of Topo. As I had some profit from the first set, I placed a lay on Topo at 1.16. Topo was a set and a break ahead which can be an excellent entry point. Good value and the leading player often relaxes a little.

I planned on giving Choinski 3 chances to put some pressure on the Topo serve.

Topo held to 0. In the next game, Choinski faced 2 break points but managed to hold. In Topo’s next service game, he was taken to deuce but held. Choinski’s 3rd service game of the set saw him face yet another break point. Again, he recovered to hold. Perhaps Topo might get a little frustrated.

Topo served at 3-2 and faced a break point. I hedged at 1.24 . It was the first break point that Choinski had earned since the first game of the match and I was not confident that he would take it. He didn’t take it. There were no more break points in the set.

Topo won 7-6, 6-4.