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WTA Madrid Challenger
Selekhmeteva 1.80 v Kudermetova
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Kudermetova 1-0 (Oct 2019, indoors, 2 sets). Clay win %’s favour Selekhmeteva.

Selekhmeteva needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.12 favourite. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
CH q final in Oct. CH title in Sep. CH final and semi final in July.

Kudermetova had a 2 sets win over Sherif in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win over Ponchet as favourite in the 2nd round.

12 month CH stats favour Kudermetova on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her overall.
Lay Selekhmeteva around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.90. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Kudermetova in 3 sets.

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Update: Selekhmeteva started at 1.66. Kudermetova served first. She went 15-40 behind. The price was not very attractive to lay at 1.54 (given the lower start price) so I waited for the break. She was broken and I laid Selekhmeteva at 1.47.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken back. I removed liability at 1.78, leaving the green on Kudermetova. The next 5 games were holds. Selekhmeteva did face a break point when she served at 2-3 but she recovered to hold. I thought about hedging at that break point but decided against it.

Selekhmeteva served at 3-4 and was broken. I hedged at 1.46 on Kudermetova’s ladder (3.15 on Selekhmeteva’s ladder). Kudermetova served for the set. She went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold.

Stats for the set had Selekhmeteva with the better first serve percentage at 67% but she had a low(ish) first serve points won % at 58%. Kudermetova had a low first serve percentage of 53%. She only lost 3 points on her first serve. Both players were below the tour average on second serves points won.

Selekhmeteva served first in the second set. I let her have her service game before laying Kudermetova. She was broken to 30. I laid Kudermetova at 1.21.

In the next game, Kudermetova saved 2 break points but was eventually broken. I backed her at 1.35 with the same stake that I had used for the lay. This left me with green on both players but a bigger green on Kudermetova.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva was broken again. I laid Kudermetova at 1.18. She was then broken to 30 in the next game and I backed her at 1.29 using the same stake. Selekhmeteva then held after being taken to deuce. Kudermetova served at 2-3 and was broken to 30.

I backed Kudermetova at 1.76. Selekhmeteva was broken in the next game and I hedged at 1.48.

The next 4 games were holds of serve. Kudermetova served at 5-6. She faced and saved 2 break points / set points but managed to hold.

They went into a tie break. Kudermetova won the tie break 7-3.

Kudermetova won 6-3, 7-6.

 

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ATP Monte Carlo
Moutet 1.56 v Muller
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Moutet 3-2. Most recent July 2025, hard, Moutet in 2. he won on clay in July 2020, 2 sets. Muller won indoors in 2019, 3 sets. Muller won on clay in June 2017, 3 sets. Moutet won on clay in 2017, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Muller.

Moutet lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year.
4th Round in Rome 2025, 2nd Round in Rome 2025.

Muller reached the 2nd round last season. This week he has come through the qual rounds.
Quarter finals in Hamburg 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Moutet.
Back Moutet around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Moutet in 2 sets.

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Update: Muller served first and was broken to 30. Moutet’s price only dropped to 1.39, If the price had been lower, I would probably have laid him.

In the next game, Moutet was broken after saving 2 break points. His price rose to 1.66. In the next game, Muller went 15-0 ahead and the Moutet
price moved to 1.81. I backed Moutet with part stake. Muller was broken to 15.

In the next game, Moutet had to save 2 break points but did get his first hold to lead 3-1. The next 6 games were all easy holds and Moutet took the set 6-4.

After the set, I removed liability at 1.29 to leave a free bet on Moutet. As i was expecting a straight sets win, I did not enter in the second set.

Moutet took a double break, 4-0 lead in the second set. He ended the set and the match with another break when Muller served at 1-5.

Moutet won 6-4, 6-1.