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WTA Buenos Aires Challenger
Giovannini v Jeanjean 1.40
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Jeanjean 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %’s are better for Giovannini.

Giovannini gets a wild card entry. She lost in the 1st round last year. Most of her matches are in ITF’s. ITF final in Sep. 2 ITF titles in Aug. ITF title in May. ITF title in Jan.

Jeanjean reached the q final last season. CH final last week. CH semi in May. Quarter final in Bogota. CH semi in Dec.

12 month CH stats are much stronger for Jeanjean.
Back Jeanjean around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Match prediction: Jeanjean in 2 sets.

Update: Jeanjean started the match at 1.36. There were no breaks in the first 6 games. At 3-3, her price had risen to 1.53.

In the next game, Giovannini faced a break point at 30-40 and was broken. Jeanjean’s price only dropped to 1.31 after the break. Just 5 ticks lower than her start price. For that reason (and also the fact that there was only 28K matched on the market at this point, I did not enter.

Jeanjean held to 15 in the next game and her price hit 1.20. I decided to wait for set 2. In the next game, Jeanjean broke to 0 to take the set.
Stats in the first set were poor on serve for Giovannini. She had a high first serve percentage of 75% but was winning just 48% of her first serve points.
As I had favoured Jeanjean to win in 2 sets, I was in no rush to lay her.

Jeanjean started the 2nd set with an easy hold to 15. Giovannini was then broken to 15. She had now been broken in her last 3 service games.
Jeanjean was now a set and a break up. I need a good reason not to lay the leading player in this situation. In this case, I had favoured Jeanjean to win in straight sets. Giovannini was not serving well. I did not enter. Jeanjean could have been laid at 1.06.

The next 3 games were holds of serve. Giovannini served at 1-4 and was broken to 30. She had been broken 4 times in her last 5 service games.

Jeanjean could now be laid at 1.01. She had not faced a break point in the match. I had predicted a straight sets win for her before the match. I thought about laying. It seemed pointless. I have always noticed that WTA players often struggle when serving at 5-1. I laid for £200 at 1.01. A massive liability of £2.

Jeanjean was broken to 30. Her price moved to 1.02. Giovannini would probably get broken in the next game. Giovannini held to 30. Jeanjean hit 1.03. In the next game, Jeanjean was again broken to 30. Her back price hit 1.12.

Jeanjean had reached the final the previous week. Maybe she was tired. Maybe she though that the job was done when she was a set and 5-1 up and had switched off mentally.

Giovannini was back on serve. Another pattern in tennis is that if a player has been behind for the whole set and gets back on serve (especially from being a double break behind), they so often get broken again. Giovannini held to 15! Jeanjean was at 1.17.

Jeanjean served at 5-5 and was broken for the 3rd time in a row. her price hit 1.47. I was wishing I had laid with a bigger stake, although to be fair, there wasn’t much more available at 1.01. I would normally hedge there but Jeanjean seemed to be falling apart. I was only risking £2. An easy hold for Giovannini gave her the set. Jeanjean hit 1.80.

At least a boring match had got interesting! The first 4 games of the 3rd set were holds. No break points. It looked like Jeanjean had sorted her serve out but Giovannini had only lost 2 points on her own serve. In the next game, Jeanjean was broken to 15. In WTA Challengers, the player breaking first in the 3rd set gets broken back 56% of the time. I hedged at 1.44 on Giannini’s ladder. That was 3.30 on Jeanjean’s ladder. A profit of £138 for a £2 liability.

The next game was a hold to 15 for Giovannini. Jeanjean served at 2-4. She saved 4 break points but was broken on the 5th. Giovannini served out the set and the match easily.

Giovannini won 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.

 

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Bogota Challenger
Ficovich v Alves 1.75
Due to start at 8 pm
Confidence rating: 7/10

Ficovich 1-0 (Oct 2024, clay, 3rd set tie break). Clay win %’s are a little better for Alves.

Ficovich reached the q final last year. CH semi in July. 2 CH finals in March. 2 CH q finals in Feb.

Alves reached a CH q final in Oct. ITF title in Sep. CH q final in April.

12 month and 2025 CH stats are stronger for Alves on serve.
Lay Ficovich around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match Prediction: Alves in 3 sets.

Update: Alves was broken to 0 in the first game. I laid Ficovich at 1.65.

There were no break points in the next 4 games. Ficovich led 3-2. In his next service game, he went behind at 0-15. The match was stopped for heavy rain. I exited at 1.59 for a tiny loss. The match was delayed for over an hour. When they resumed, there were no break points in the rest of the set.

As there had been just 1 break of serve which had been in the first game of the match, I stayed with my pre match assessment and laid Ficovich at 1.34 at the start of set 2. Alves went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold. There were no break points in the next 4 games. As usual, if I laid the set 1 winner and the set 2 score reaches 4-4, I exit. Alves led 3-2.

In the next game, Ficovich went 15-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.67. Ficovich saved the first break point but was broken. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.96 and left the green on Alves. He was taken to deuce in the next game so when he held, I hedged evenly at 2.12.

Alves took the set and his price dropped to 1.74 (2.30 on Ficovich). The first 2 sets were decided by a single break so I did not enter in the 3rd set. That was also decided by a single break of serve for Ficovich. They each had a break point in the set.

Ficovich won 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.