WTA Doha Andreeva 1.52 v Mboko Due to start at 12:00 Confidence rating 7.5/10
1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.
Andreeva reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round. 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Adelaide 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025.
Mboko had a 2 sets win over Bouzkova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zvonareva in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Adelaide 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.
12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Andreeva. Back Andreeva around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: Mboko served first and held to 0. In the next game, Andreeva went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 2.00 and I backed her. She saved one of the break points but was broken.
Mboko then had another hold to 0 to lead 3-0. She was now at 1.66. I added to my position with a lay of Mboko at 1.66.
In the next game, Andreeva held to 15. Mboko served at 3-1. she went 15-40 behind. I removed some of my liability by laying Andreeva at 1.95. Mboko saved one of the break points but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.81.
Andreeva then held serve to 30 to get to 3-3. In the next game, Mboko faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged evenly at 1.48. Mboko faced 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold. She led 4-3.
In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 15. Mboko successfully served out the set in the next game.
Stats in the first set were pretty poor for Andreeva. 47% of points won on her first serve and 40% on her second serve. She was broken 3 times. Mboko had a good first serve % of 73% and had won 82% of her first serve points. Her second serve was poor. She won 2 of 8 on her second serve.
Mboko was at 1.41 after the set. Andreeva served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game before I laid Mboko. She faced 4 break points in that game but managed to hold. I laid Mboko at 1.49. As I had a decent profit from the first set, I could place a fairly hefty lay and only leave myself with a small liability.
In the next game, Mboko was broken to 0. I removed the liability at 1.88 on Mboko’s ladder. I did not hedge evenly but had a solid green on Mboko and a larger green on Andreeva.
In the next game, Andreeva was broken yet again! I laid Mboko at 1.55. No liability on the position. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. I hedged at 2.00. This time, I hedged evenly. Mboko’s level had dropped but Andreeva hadn’t improved by much, if at all.
In the next game, Andreeva served at 3-1 but was broken again to 30. Mboko then held to 0.
So, pattern time! There had been 4 consecutive breaks of serve. When that happens in WTA, if one of the players breaks the pattern to hold serve, the other player usually also holds. My theory on why this happens is that the player who just held after being broken in their last 2 service games is so relieved to get the hold that they relax a little and therefore their intensity also drops a small amount. They don’t go after their opponent’s next service game.
I laid Mboko at 1.41. Andreeva held to 15. Andreeva now led 4-3. Mboko was now at 1.62. I was green on Mboko and had a large green on Andreeva. I decided to give Andreeva the chance to take the set. Mboko was broken to 30 in the next game and I hedged evenly at 1.84 on Andreeva’s ladder. I was not about to trust her to serve out the set!
She did hold to take the set but was taken to deuce.
In the third set, the first 2 games were holds to 0. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. In WTA, the player who breaks first in the third set gets broken back 49% of the time. I laid Andreeva at 1.32. In the next game, She was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.78. The score was now 2-2.
The next 4 games were holds without break chances. Mboko served at 4-4 and was broken to 30. Andreeva would serve for the match. She was at 1.16. Her serve had improved from the first set but I had a healthy profit. It would be rude not to lay her! I laid at 1.16.
Andreeva had a match point at 40-30 but couldn’t take it. She saved a break point but was eventually broken. I hedged at 1.89.
The next 2 games were easy holds and they went into a tie break. Mboko took the tie break 7-5 to take the win.
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