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WTA Australian Open
Svitolina v Andreeva 1.57
Due to start at 10 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Andreeva 1-0 ( March 2025, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are a little better for Andreeva.

Svitolina reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Bucsa in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Klimovicova in the 2nd round. 2 close sets win over Shnaider in the 3rd round.
Title in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2025.

Andreeva reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets against Vekic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Sakkari in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Ruse in the 3rd round.
Title in Adelaide 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Andreeva.
Back Andreeva around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.70. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Andreeva in 3 sets.

Update: Andreeva started at 1.51. Svitolina served first and went 0-40 behind. She recovered to hold. Andreeva then had a tough hold after being taken to deuce. Svitolina held to 30 to get to 2-1.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 30. I backed Andreeva at 2.16. Svitolina served at 3-1. She had a game point but was taken to deuce and then broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.68.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken again to 30! I backed Andreeva at 2.16.

Svitolina served at 4-2. She went 30-40 behind. As we were quite late in the set, I removed all my liability at 1.88, leaving the green on Andreeva. Svitolina saved the break point. She again faced a break point at 40-A but recovered and held to lead 5-2. In the next game, Andreeva was broken for the 3rd time in a row to give Svitolina the set.

Stats for both players in the first set were poor but Andreeva’s serve had been particularly poor.

So, I went into set 2 with a free bet on Andreeva. Svitolina served first. I laid her at 1.49.

Svitolina was broken to 0. As it was hard to trust Andreeva on serve, I removed my liability at 1.90 to leave an increased free bet on Andreeva.

This time, Andreeva held to 0! In the next game, Svitolina went 15-40 behind and I hedged evenly at 1.63 on Andreeva’s ladder.

Svitolina recovered to hold serve. In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 30. The next 5 games were holds with no break points. Andreeva served at 4-5. She faced a break point / match point at 30-40 which she saved. She faced another break point / match point and was broken to give the match to Svitolina.

When trading tennis matches, the match outcome isn’t the important factor. However, if your favoured player loses, you at least need them to be competitive. In this one, Svitolina was the better player on the day but while Andreeva played a poor match overall, she did just enough to give us opportunities.

Svitolina won 6-2, 6-4.

 

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ATP Australian Open
Popyrin 1.49 v Muller
Due to start at 7:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Popyrin 1-0 (Oct 2020, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are even.

Popyrin lost in the 1st round last year.
Quarter finals in Toronto 2025.

Muller lost in the 1st round last season.
2nd round in Hong Kong 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Popyrin on serve.
Back Popyrin around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. 4 sets.

Match prediction: Popyrin in 4 sets.

**Note, the price on Popyrin has changed since I wrote the Trading Tips email so I have amended the target prices (That’s why I give a player’s price in the tips!)

Update: Popyrin started at 1.41. In the first set, Popyrin took a double break 4-1 lead. I intended laying after the first set anyway so I laid at 4-1 at 1.12.

There were no more breaks, or even break points in the set. After the set, I could have laid at 1.13 so the earlier lay at least gave a chance of a first set profit with little risk.

Muller served first in set 2. He faced a break point but recovered to hold. The next 4 games were holds of serve with no break points. In the next game, Popyrin served at 2-3. He went 15-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.31. He saved the first break point but was broken to 30. Popyrin’s price reached 1.39. I removed the remaining liability and left the green on Muller. I wanted to give him chance to take the set. The next 3 games were all holds to 15. I hedged evenly at 1.50 at the end of the set.

In the third set, Muller faced 2 break points in is first service game and was broken to 0 in his second service game. As I favoured Popyrin to win, I stayed out of this set. I did not watch the rest of the set. There were no more breaks in the set although Popyrin faced 4 break points when serving at 4-2.

I was involved in another match after that but noticed a little later that Popyrin was about to break in the 4th set. After the break, he could be laid at 1.05. I used some of my green to lay him. The next 4 games were all holds with only one of them seeing the receiver get to 30. In the next game, Popyrin went 15-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 1.16. He saved the first break point but was broken.

The next 4 games were holds with no break points and they went into a tie break. I had stopped following the match after I hedged at 4-4.

Muller took the tie break to take the match into a 5th set. Popyrin served for the match at 5-3 but was broken to 15. They again went to a tie break and Muller easily won that to take the match.

Muller won 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.