This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
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Download link: Trading Tips 3rd July

WTA Wimbledon
Samsonova v Bouzkova 1.75
Due to start at 11 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Samsonova 3-2. Most recent Jan 2025, hard, Samsonova in 3. She won on hard in Aug 2024, 3 sets. Bouzkova won on hard in 2022, 3 sets. Bouzkova won on grass in 2019, 2 sets. Samsonova won on clay in 2019, 2 sets. Grass win %’s favour Bouzkova.

Samsonova reached the Quarter final last season. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Shnaider in the 2nd round.
2nd round in Bad Homburg 2026.

Bouzkova reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Gibson in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Grant in the 2nd round.
Title in Nottingham 2026. 2nd round at Queens Club 2026.

12 month grass stats favour Bouzkova overall. 2026 stats on all surfaces favour Bouzkova overall.
Back Bouzkova around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Bouzkova in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: At the start of the match, Bouzkova’s price had dropped from 1.75 to 1.64.
Bouzkova served first and was broken after 4 deuces and saving 1 break point. I backed Bouzkova at 2.10. It was not my target price so I reduced the stake. I do this in case my favoured player breaks straight back.
1-0

Samsonova saved a break point but was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.66, leaving the profit on Bouzkova.
1-1

The next 4 games were holds of serve.
3-3

Bouzkova was broken to 15. As I already had a free bet on Bouzkova and we were close to the end of the set, I stayed with my free bet on Bouzkova.
4-3

The next 3 games were holds of serve and Samsonova took the set.
5-3
5-4
6-4

Stats for the set were better for Samsonova overall, although she had a lower first serve percentage.
Samsonova was priced at 1.38/1.39 after the set.

Bouzkova served first in the second set. If the set loser is serving first in the next set, I usually let them have their service game before entering.
There are 3 options:
-Lay Samsonova at the start of the second set
-Wait for Bouzkova to have her service game before laying Samsonova
-Lay half the stake at the start of set 2 and add the rest after her service game.

This time, I intended to wait for Bouzkova to have her service game. However, she faced a break point at 30-40 and I laid Samsonova at 1.28. Bouzkova recovered to hold.
0-1

Samsonova faced a break point and I removed some of my liability at 1.55. She also recovered to hold. I now had a larger position on Bouzkova with a small red on Samsonova.
1-1

The next 6 games were holds with no break points. This took them to 4-4. If I have laid the first set winner and the score reaches 4-4, that is usually my cue to exit. In this case, I had removed most of my liability and had green on my pre match favourite. I wanted to give Bouzkova the chance to take the set.
4-4

Bouzkova faced 2 break points but recovered to hold.
4-5

Samsonova held to 30.
5-5

Bouzkova again faced 2 break points but managed to hold serve.
5-6

Samsonova went 15-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 2.04 on Samsonova’s ladder. She saved the 2 break points and held to take them into a tie break.
6-6

Bouzkova took a 4-1 lead in the tie break and held on to that lead to take the set.
6-7

After the set, Bouzkova was priced at 1.80/1.81.
Stats for the set had shifted towards Bouzkova. Samsonova had a low first serve percentage of 50%. Bouzkova’s numbers were much more solid despite facing 5 break points.

In third sets in WTA matches, I generally wait for a player to be broken. If the leading player’s lay price is decent, I will lay them. The other player breaks back around 48% of the time on grass.

Samsonova served first and was broken to 0. I laid Bouzkova at 1.32.
0-1

Bouzkova went 15-40 behind and I hedged at 1.60. She faced 7 break points but managed to hold serve.
0-2

The next 5 games were holds.
1-2
1-3
2-3
2-4
3-4

Bouzkova was broken after being taken to deuce.
4-4

Samsonova was immediately broken again. She was broken to 30.
4-5

Bouzkova would serve for the match. I laid her using some of the profit at 1.16. She went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.70. She saved the 3 break points and held serve to take the match.
4-6

Bouzkova won 4-6, 7-6, 6-4.

 

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 24th June

WTA Bad Homburg
Navarro 1.69 v Ruse
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Navarro 3-0. Most recent Feb 2026, hard, 2 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2025, 2 sets. 2 sets win on clay in 2024. Grass win %’s favour Ruse.

Navarro reached the Quarter final last season. She beat Lys in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Swiatek in the 2nd round.
Final in Nottingham 2026, 4th Round at Wimbledon 2025.

Ruse has come through the qual rounds. Easy win over Noskova as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kalinskaya in the 2nd round.
Quarter finals Hertogenbosch 2026.

12 month grass stats favour Ruse on serve and favour Navarro on return.
2026 stats on all surfaces favour Navarro.
Chance of 3 sets. If Navarro is motivated to have another long week before Wimbledon, she has the edge.
Back Navarro around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Navarro in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Navarro served first. The first 2 games were holds of serve with no break points.
1-0
1-1

Navarro faced a break point at 30-40. I placed a small back of Navarro at 1.89. She saved the break points and held serve.
2-1

Ruse went 15-30 behind. I removed liability at 1.50. I left the profit on Navarro. Ruse went on to hold serve.
2-2

The next 2 games were holds of serve with no break points.
3-2
3-3

Navarro went 30-40 behind again. This time, I stayed out as we were potentially very close to the end of the set. She saved the break point but faced another and was broken.
3-4

The next 3 games were hold and Ruse took the set.
3-5
4-5
4-6

Stats for the set were fairly even, other than the fact that Navarro faced 3 break points and Ruse did not face any. Both had low first serve percentages.

After the set, Ruse was priced at 1.46/1.47.

I had been concerned that Navarro may not want another long week right before Wimbledon. I went into the second set with a free bet on her.

Navarro served first in the second set.
The first 4 games of the set were very easy holds.
2-2

Navarro was broken to 30. I could have taken a small profit at 1.19 but decided to let the free bet run.
2-3

Ruse held to 30.
2-4

Navarro was broken again to 30.
2-5

Ruse served out the match to 0.
2-6

Ruse won 6-4, 6-2.