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WTA Miami
Vidmanova 1.58 v Jacquemot
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Vidmanova.

Vidmanova reached a CH semi in Oct. Most of her best results were in ITF’s.

Jacquemot reached Semi finals in Guadalajara 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Vidmanova overall.
Back Vidmanova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Vidmanova in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Vidmanova started the match at 1.46. That was down from 1.58. Jacquemot served first and was broken to 30. I laid Vidmanova at 1.28 as I did not think she would run away with the set. Vidmanova was broken to 30 in the next game. I removed most of my liability at 1.55, leaving the green on Jacquemot.

In the next game, Jacquemot held to 30 and then broke Vidmanova again to lead 3-1. Vidmanova hit the target price and I moved all the green to her at 2.16. (By backing her with a stake equal to the green that I had on Jacquemot).

In the next game, Vidmanova broke to 15. She then held after saving 2 break points to get the score to 3-3. She broke Jacquemot again to lead 4-3 and held easily in the next game. I hedged at 1.23 .

Jacquemot held to 15 and then broke Vidmanova to 30. The next 2 games were holds to 0 and they went into a tie break. Vidmanova won the tie break 7-5.

The last 3 or 4 games were affected by short rain delays. There was a 25 minute delay during the tie break.

The stats for the first set were fairly even.

Vidmanova served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.23 at the start of the set. She was broken to 30. Her price moved to 1.38. I decided to give Jacquemot chance to hold for a better exit price. Jacquemot was taken to deuce but held. I backed Vidmanova at 1.49 with the same stake that I had used for the lay. I now had green on both players but a bigger green on Vidmanova.

The next 3 games were holds. Jacquemot faced a break point when serving at 2-1 but recovered to hold. When she served at 3-2, She was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.22.

The next 2 games were holds. Vidmanova served at 4-4 and was broken to 30. Jacquemot had not had an easy hold in the set so I placed a small back on Vidmanova at 1.55. In the next game, Jacquemot was broken to 30 and I hedged at 1.29.

Vidmanova was then broken. Jacquemot would serve for the set again. I stayed out this time. There is a pattern that if a player is broken when serving for the set, if they earn the chance to serve for it again, they usually make a much better job of it, even in WTA.

Jacquemot served out the set to 30.

Vidmanova’s stats for that second set were poor. She won just over half her service points.

Vidmanova served first in the third set. The first 2 games were holds. In the next game, Vidmanova was broken after saving 3 break points. I laid Jacquemot at 1.51.

In the next game, Jacquemot went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 2.10. She recovered to hold and led 3-1.

I stayed out after that. The next 3 games were holds. Jacquemot served at 4-3 and was broken after saving 2 break points. Vidmanova served at 5-5 and was broken again. Jacquemot was taken to deuce when serving for the match but did eventually hold.

Jacquemot won 6-7, 7-5, 7-5.

 

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WTA Miami qualifying
Hunter v Masarova 1.66
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Masarova 1-0 (Feb 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Hunter.

Hunter reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier. 2nd round of the Aus Open as qualifier.

Masarova reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season.
Quarter finals in Austin 2026, 3rd Round in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Masarova on serve.
Back Masarova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Masarova in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Hunter served first and was broken to 30. As I favoured Masarova to win in 2 sets, I waited to see if Hunter was going to be competitive. Hunter did not force a single break point and was broken again before the end of the set.

After the set, Masarova was priced at 1.15. Often after an easy set, the set winner can switch off a little in the early games of set 2. I let Hunter have her service game at the start of the set. She held to 30. I laid Masarova at 1.19.

The next 6 games were all holds of serve with no break points. Masarova served at 3-4. I was waiting for 4-4 as that would be my exit after laying the set 1 winner. Masarova was broken to 15. I removed the liability at 1.59, leaving the green on Masarova.

In the next game, Hunter served for the set but was broken to 30. In the next game, Masarova saved 2 break points but was eventually broken which gave the set to Hunter.

Hunter’s stats had improved a lot from the first set

I left my free bet to run on Masarova. Hunter served first in set 3 and was broken to 0. The next 3 games were easy holds.

Hunter served at 1-3 and was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.04. The next 3 games were all breaks. Masarova served at 5-2 and held to 30.

Masarova won 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.