Trading Tip – ATP Stockholm, Humbert v Sonego
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ATP Almaty
Humbert 1.59 v Sonego
Due to start at 11 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10
Humbert 5-3. Most recent June 2025, grass, Humbert in 2. He won indoors in Feb 2025, 2 sets. Sonego’s 3 wins were all on clay. Indoor win %’s are better for Humbert.
Humbert beat Berrettini in 2 sets in the 2nd round. He won the Title in Marseille 2025, Final in Paris 2024. 2nd round in Basel.
Sonego reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Fery in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kovacevic in the 2nd round. Quarter finals in Marseille 2025. 2nd round in Metz.
12 month and 2025 indoor stats are stronger for Humber on serve.
Back Humbert around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
Update: A very tight first set! Humbert was the only one to face break points. When he served at 2-2, he went 15-40 behind. This easily gave us our entry point. I backed him at 15-40. He recovered to hold and we got the exit price. I hedged evenly.
There were no break in the set and they went into a tie break that Sonego won.
I backed Humber after the set. He immediately broke and I removed the liability, leaving most of the profit on Humbert. In the next game, Humbert went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold. He went on to take the set 6-0. I had hedged after his second break at 3-0.
As I write this, they are still in the 3rd set but I am done with this match 😉
Edit: Humbert won 6-7, 6-0, 6-3.
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