WTA Beijing
Zheng v Andreeva 1.61
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Zheng 1-0 (Oct 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are even.

Zheng reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets as 1.08 favourite in the 1st round. She beat Kalinskaya who retired in the 3rd set. 3 sets win over Bouzkova in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Charaeva in the 4th round. 2 sets win over a poor Svitolina in the q final. 2 sets win over Mertens in the semi final.
She reached the Quarter finals at the US Open 2026, Quarter finals in Athens 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026.

Andreeva reached the 4th round last season. She needed 3 sets in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kudermetova in the 3rd round. Easy win over Snigur in the 4th round. 2 tie breaks win over Alexandrova in the q final. Easy win over Bartunkova in the semi final.
She reached the Quarter finals at the US Open 2026, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, Quarter finals in Dubai 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Adelaide 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Zheng on serve and strongly favour Andreeva on return.
Stats for their last 10 favour Andreeva overall.
Very good chance of 3 sets. Obviously, the crowd will be behind Zheng.
Back Andreeva around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Andreeva in 3 sets.

Update: Andreeva served first and held to 15.
0-1

Zheng went 0-40 behind. I laid Andreeva at 1.32. Zheng saved one of the break points but was broken to 15.
0-2

Andreeva was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.53, leaving the profit on Andreeva.
1-2

The next 6 games were holds with no break points.
2-2
2-3
3-3
3-4
4-4
4-5

Zheng went 15-40 behind. I hedged at 1.33. Zheng saved 3 break points / set points in that game and eventually held.
5-5

Andreeva was broken to 0 which was a reaction to missing 3 set points.
6-5

Zheng served out the set to 0.
7-5

Stats for the set show Zheng had a really low first serve percentage of 39%. She compensated by winning 70% of second serve points. Andreeva’s stats were fairly solid though she would prefer to win more than 61% of first serve points.

After the set, Zheng was priced at 1.39 / 1.40.

Andreeva served first so I waited before I laid Zheng. Andreeva was broken to 30. I laid Zheng at 1.20. The lay had low liability due to the profit from the first set.
1-0

Zheng was broken to 0. I removed my liability at 1.47. I left myself with green on Zheng and a larger green on Andreeva.
1-1

Andreeva had to save a break point but recovered to hold. She had faced a break point in both her second set service games so I hedged at 1.55.
1-2

The next 5 games were holds with no break points. I had decided to keep my profit to take into a third set.
4-4

Andreeva saved 3 break points. She saved them but faced another and was broken.
5-4

Zheng served out the set and the match.
6-4

Zheng won 7-5, 6-4.
A good performance from Zheng but Andreeva was disappointing.