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WTA Toronto
Samsonova v Rybakina 1.35
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Samsonova 4-2. Most recent May 2025, clay, Rybakina in 3. She won on hard in Feb 2024, 3 sets. Samsonova won on hard in Oct 2023, 2 sets. She won on hard in Aug 2023, 3 sets. Hard win %’s favour Rybakina.

Samsonova lost in the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Tjen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Krejcikova in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Joint in the 3rd round.
Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 3rd Round in Wuhan 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.

Rybakina reached the semi final last season. She needed 3 sets against Kasatkina in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Li in the 3rd round
Semi finals in Miami 2026, Final in Indian Wells 2026, Quarter finals in Doha 2026, Title at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, Semi finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Ningbo 2025, Quarter finals in Wuhan 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Semi finals in Cincinnati 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Rybakina.
Back Rybakina around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Rybakina in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: At the start of the match, Rybakina was priced at 1.31.
Rybakina served first. She was broken to 15. Her price moved to 1.61. I placed a small back on her at 1.61.
1-0

Samsonova saved 2 break points. She faced another and was broken. I removed half my liability at 1.38.
1-1

Rybakina went 15-40 behind. She recovered to hold.
1-2

Samsonova held to 30.
2-2

Rybakina was broken after saving a break point. I backed Rybakina at 1.87.
3-2

Samsonova was broken after saving a break point. I removed most of my liability at 1.51. Neither player was serving well!
3-3

Rybakina saved 2 break points but was broken yet again! I backed Rybakina at 1.96. I had to be a little careful as we were getting closer to the end of the set and there was no sign of her serve improving.
4-3

Samsonova went 40-15 ahead. I was getting a little nervous. Rybakina pulled back to deuce and then had a break point. Her price dropped to 1.72. I decided to wait for the break.
Samsonova saved the break point. She then had another game point. She could not take it and Rybakina then had another break point. Her price dropped to 1.69 and I removed all liability, leaving the green on her.
Samsonova saved that break point but when she faced another, she was broken.
4-4

Rybakina held to 0.
4-5

I was really hopeful that Rybakina would break to take the set. Samsonova went 40-0 up! Rybakina pulled back to deuce and then had a break point. She took that point to win the set.
4-6

Stats for both players were poor in that set. Low first serve percentages and low second serve points won percentages. 4 double faults each. Slight edge to Rybakina.

Rybakina was priced at 1.14/1.15 after the set. I hedged evenly at 1.15.

Update: Rybakina served first in the second set. She had not served well in the first set and the price was attractive. I laid her at 1.15. She held to 30.
0-1

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
1-2

Samsonova saved 2 break points and held serve.
2-2

Rybakina saved 2 break points. She faced another and was broken. I backed Rybakina at 1.36 using the same stake that I had used for the lay. This gave me green on Samsonova and a larger green on Rybakina.
3-2

Samsonova held after being taken to deuce twice.
4-2

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-3
5-3
5-4
6-4

Stats for the set were even on most things but Rybakina had a really poor first serve percentage of 42%.

After the set, Rybakina was priced at 1.54/1.55.

Rybakina served first in the third set. She was broken to 30. I held my position.
1-0

Samsonova held to 15.
2-0

Rybakina was broken again to 30. I used half my green on Samsonova to lay her at 1.16.
3-0

Samsonova was broken to 30.
3-1

Rybakina held to 30.
3-2

Samsonova was broken after having 4 game points. I hedged evenly by laying Rybakina at 1.62, (same as 2.62 on Samsonova).
3-3

The next 3 games were holds. Samsonova recovered from 0-40 when she served at 3-4.
3-4
4-4
4-5

Samsonova again went 0-40 behind. This time she was broken.
4-6

Rybakina won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 7th August

WTA Toronto
Pegula 1.42 v Shnaider
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Pegula 4-0. Most recent Aug 2026, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in Apr 2026, 3 sets. She won on hard in Sep 2024, 2 sets. 2 sets win on hard in Aug 2024. Hard win %’s favour Pegula.

Pegula reached the 3rd round last year. She needed 3 sets against Frech in the 2nd round. Easy win over Rakhimova in the 3rd round.
She reached the Final in Washington 2026, Quarter finals in Miami 2026, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2026, Title in Dubai 2026, Semi finals at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Final in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, Semi finals at the US Open 2025.

Shnaider lost in the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Sramkova in the 2nd round. Easy win over a poor Kalinskaya in the 3rd round.
Semi finals in Washington 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Adelaide 2026, Semi finals in Ningbo 2025, Title in Monterrey 2025.

12 month stats and stats in their last 10 favour Pegula overall.
Back Pegula around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Pegula in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Shnaider served first. She held to 0. The first 4 games were holds.
2-2

Shnaider saved a break point before holding.
2-3

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
3-3
3-4

Pegula was broken to 30. As Shnaider had only faced 1 break point, I waited for set 2.
3-5

Shnaider served out the set to 30.
3-6

Shnaider was priced at 1.77/1.78 after the set.

Stats for the set were good for both players. Shnaider had a much better second serve points won percentage.

Update: Pegula served first in the second set. As she had only faced 1 break point in the first set, I laid Shnaider at the start of the set at 1.78 but kept stake small as the price wasn’t great.

Pegula held to 15.
1-0

Shnaider faced a break point at 40-A and I removed liability by laying Pegula at 1.67. I left the green on Pegula.
Shnaider saved 2 break points in the game and held serve.
1-1

Pegula was broken. I laid Shnaider at 1.53.
1-2

Shnaider was broken to 15. I hedged at 2.02 on Shnaider’s ladder.
2-2

Pegula went 0-40 behind. I laid Shnaider at 1.51. Neither player was serving well in this set.
Pegula saved the 3 break points and held. I hedged again at 2.20 on Shnaider’s ladder.
3-2

Easy hold for Shnaider.
3-3

Pegula was broken again. I placed a small lay on Shnaider at 1.25. The left me with green on Shnaider and a bigger green on Pegula.
3-4

Easy hold for Shnaider.
3-5

Pegula saved a break point. She had been 40-15 ahead. She then faced another break point which Shnaider won.
3-6

Shnaider won 6-3, 6-3.

Not Pegula’s best match!