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WTA Indian Wells
Muchova v Swiatek 1.59
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10 Note, this should be a really tight match. Real value on Muchova. The 6.5 rating refers to the eventual winner prediction.

Swiatek 4-2. Most recent March 2025, hard, Swiatek in 2. 2 sets win on hard in Jan 2025. 3 sets win on hard in Aug 2023. She won on clay in 2023, 3 sets. Muchova’s wins were both 3 setters on clay in 2020 and 2019. Hard win %’s favour Swiatek.

Muchova reached the 4th round last year. 2 sets win over Bondar in the 2nd round. Easy win over Ruzic in the 3rd round.
Title in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

Swiatek reached the Semi final last season. 2 sets win over Day in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sakkari in the 3rd round.
Quarter finals in Doha 2026, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Wuhan 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Title in Seoul 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, Title in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, Quarter finals in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Muchova on serve. 2026 stats favour Muchova.
Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Swiatek around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Muchova in 3 sets.

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Update: Swiatek served first and held to 30. The next 4 games were holds. Muchova served at 2-3 and was broken after saving a break point. I laid Swiatek at 1.23.

In the next game, Swiatek held to 15. Muchova served at 2-5 and went 0-30 behind. I exited at 1.14. Muchova was broken to 0.

Muchova had lost the last 4 games. I had expected much more from her but she seemed clueless in that set.

Swiatek served first in the second set and held to 0. She then broke Muchova to 15.

Swiatek’s serve stats were particularly strong up to this point and Muchova was not even competing. I did not enter after the break and waited to see if Muchova could give me a reason to enter again.

Muchova did not win a game in set 2. This was never going to be an easy match for her but I did expect it to be a lot closer!

Swiatek won 6-2, 6-0.

 

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WTA Austin Challenger
Zakharova 1.65 v Golubic
Due to start at 4 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Golubic.

Zakharova beat Stephens in the qual round.
2nd round in Indian Wells, 2nd round in Austin. Semi finals in Cleveland 2025.

Golubic reached the Semi finals in Jiujiang 2025, Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Zakharova on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zakharova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Zakharova in 3 sets.

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Update: Zakharova’s priced dropped to 1.48 pre match. Zakharova served first and held to 0. Golubic then held to 30.

In the next game, Zakharova was broken to 30. Her price only moved to 1.70. Due to the pre match price move, we were quite a distance away from my target price. Sometimes, I will back immediately after a break of the favourite as there is a decent chance of an immediate break back. This time, I waited for Golubic to, hopefully, hold serve before entering.

Golubic held serve to 30 in the next game. I backed Zakharova at 1.94. Zakharova then held to 0. In the next game, Golubic faced a break point at 30-40. I removed most of my liability at 1.57. Golubic was broken. The score was now 3-3.

The next 3 games were easy holds. Golubic served at 4-5 and faced a break point at “Advantage Zakharova”. I hedged at 1.21. Golubic recovered to hold serve. Zakharova then held to 0.

Golubic was broken to 0 to give the set to Zakharova.

Stats in that set were much stronger for Zakharova.

As I had expected the match to be tight, I laid Zakharova at the start of the second set. I laid at 1.14.

Zakharova served first and was broken to 15. As I had no liability from the lay due to profit from the first set, I waited to see if Golubic could hold. She did hold to 30 and I backed Zakharova at 1.32 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me a green position on both players but a larger green on Zakharova.

2 games later, Zakharova broke back to get the score to 2-2. I had some green to play with so I laid her again at 1.16.

In the next game, Zakharova was broken to 0. I backed Zakharova at 1.30 to give a bigger green on her. In the next game, Zakharova broke again after Golubic had saved 2 break points.

One more go. I was pushing my luck now! I laid Zakharova at 1.18. She was broken to 15! I backed Zakharova at 1.34.

The score was now 3-4 with Golubic serving. Zakharova broke back in the next game! I was very tempted to go with another lay but talked myself out of it. I should have risked another one! Zakharova was broken and Golubic would serve for the set. She was, of course, broken to 15.

Zakharova then held to 15. There is a pattern in tennis that if you have a run of multiple breaks of serve, if one player then holds, the other player also holds. There had just been 7 consecutive breaks followed by an easy hold. Would Golubic also hold?

No.

She was broken to 15 and Zakharova took the set and the match.

Zakharova won 7-5, 7-5.