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ATP Brisbane
Medvedev 1.37 v Nakashima
Due to start at 8:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Medvedev 2-0. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, 3 sets. He won on hard in March 2023, 2 sets. 12 month hard win %’s are quite even.

Medvedev had a 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Tiafoe in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Majchrzak in the Quarter final. 2 sets win over Michelsen in the Semi final.
He reached the Semi finals in Shanghai 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025, Semi finals in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals in Dubai 2025, Quarter finals in Doha 2025.

Nakashima had a straight sets win over Fokina as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Halys in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Collignon in the Quarter final. 2 tight sets win over Kovacevic in the Semi final.
He reached the Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Semi finals in Chengdu 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Acapulco 2025, Quarter finals in Delray Beach 2025.

12 month stats are a little better for Nakashima on serve. Return stats are much better for Medvedev. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Medvedev overall.
Back Medvedev around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

Match prediction: Medvedev in 2 sets

Update: Nakashima was broken in the first game. That was followed by a hold to 15 for Medvedev. Nakashima was then broken again and trailed 0-4. There were no more breaks in the set.

In the second set, Medvedev got the first break to lead 3-2. I did not expect Nakashima to come back so I stopped following the match. In fact, Medvedev was broken when serving for the match at 5-4. He wasted 2 match points in that game. The set went to a tie break which medved easily won 7-1.

Medvedev won 6-2, 7-6 (1).

 

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WTA Brisbane
Pegula 1.69 v Kostyuk
Due to start at 5 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Pegula 4-1. Most recent Oct 2025, hard, Pegula in 3. She won on hard in March 2025, 2 sets. Kostyuk won on hard in March 2024, 2 sets. Pegula won on hard in 2023, 2 sets. 3 sets win on hard in 2022. Hard win %’s are better for Pegula.

Pegula needed 3 sets in the 2nd round against Kalinskaya. 3 sets win over Yastremska in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Samsonova in the Quarter final.
She reached the Final in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, Semi finals at the US Open 2025, Final in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Austin 2025, Quarter finals in Doha 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Final in Adelaide 2025.

Kostyuk lost in the 2nd round last year. 3 sets win over Putintseva in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Anisimova as underdog in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Andreeva as underdog in the Quarter final.
4th Round in Beijing 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals in Doha 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025.

12 month WTA stats are stronger for Pegula. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Kostyuk on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Kostyuk overall. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Pegula around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Pegula in 3 sets.

Update: What the hell was that? Kostyuk served first. Easy hold to 0. Pegula was then broken to 30. I backed Pegula.

In the next game, Kostyuk again held to 0. When Pegula went 0-30 behind in the next game, I exited. She was broken to 0. If I was going to enter the match again, I needed to see if Pegula was going to improve.

Kostyuk served at 4-0. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Pegula went 0-40 behind. She saved 2 of the break points but was broken for a third time.

Pegula won just 5 points on serve in that set. I was fully expecting her to retire in the 2nd set. Kostyuk served first and held to 15. Pegula was then broken to 15. Kostyuk took her 9th game in a row with a hold to 0. There was just 1 more break point which came on the Kostyuk serve but she saved it.

Kostyuk won 6-0, 6-3.

When you’re trading, you don’t necessarily have to pick the winner but you do need your player to compete. In this one, if you were favouring Pegula, there really wasn’t much you could do.