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ATP Vienna
Dzumhur v Moutet 1.59
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Dzumhur won on clay in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Moutet won on clay in 2024, 2 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s favour Moutet.

Dzumhur has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round in Brussels.

Moutet lost in the qual rounds last season. Final in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

12 month ATP indoor stats favour Dzumhur on serve but Moutet played much stronger opponents.
Back Moutet around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Moutet was too strong. He broke Dzumhur in the 1st game. I did try a small lay of Moutet after the break but his first 2 service games were holds to 0 so I exited with a tiny loss. Moutet broke again to take the set. He took the second set 6-0.

Moutet won 6-3, 6-0.

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ATP Basel
Giron v Shapovalov 1.73
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Giron 3-1. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, Giron in 2. Shapovalov won on hard in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Giron won on hard in Jan 2025, 2 sets. Indoor win %’s favour Shapovalov.

Giron reached the Semi finals in Antwerp 2024. 3 ATP 2nd rounds in the last year.

Shapovalov reached the Quarter final last season. Semi finals in Stockholm 2025, Title in Dallas 2025, Title in Belgrade 2024.

12 month indoor stats favour Shapovalov. recent performances are better for him.
Back Shapovalov around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70.

Update: No break points in the first 6 games. Shapovalov served at 3-3 and faced 3 break points. He recovered to hold. When he served at 5-5, he faced a single break point. I backed Shapovalov as there was a chance he would save a single break point. If he was broken, he would probably lose the set so I kept the stake small. If he did lose the set, I would have laid Giron.

Shapovalov was broken! I stayed with the small back on Shapovalov. In the next game, Giron was broken! I hedged evenly.

Giron took the tie break 7-3. I laid Giron.

Giron serve first in set 2 and was broken to 0. Easy hold for Shapovalov and I removed half my liability. He went to take the set 6-0. At 4-0, I hedged evenly and did not enter in set 3.

In set 3, Shapovalov broke first to lead 3-2 but was immediately broken straight back. The set went to a tie break and this time, Shapovalov won it 7-4.

Shapovalov won 6-7, 6-0, 7-6.