Daily match picks

First round
Li 1.55 v Wang 2.74
Due to start at 8:30 pm

Wang 1-0 (Jan 18 2022, hard, 2 sets).

Overall win percentages are fairly even. Long term and 12 month hard court win percentages favour Li.

Li reached the semi finals last season. She reached the semi finals in Melbourne in January and won the WTA Tenerife title in October 2021. Also in 2021, she reached the semi finals in Monterrey and semi finals in the Chicago Challenger in August. Those followed a semi final in the Aus Open warm up even and a 3rd round finish at the Aus Open.

Wang reached the 2nd round in WTA Tenerife in October. Her only other main tour success in 2021 on hard was a semi final in Prague in July.

Back Li above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: That was as bad a performance as you’ll see. Li started the match by going 4-0 down and didn’t hold once in the second set. She clearly tanked the match.

Wang won 6-2, 6-1.

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Semi Final
Tabilo 1.72 v Martinez 2.22
Due to start at 8:30

Martinez 1-0 (Feb 2022, clay, 2 sets). Overall win percentages slightly favour Tabilo. Clay win percentages are even.

Tabilo has not lost a set. He reached the final in Cordoba this month where he lost in 3 sets to Ramos.

Martinez beat Munar in the first round. He won as underdog in 3 sets. In the last round he beat in form Hanfmann in 2 easy sets.

Stats for this tournament favour Tabilo. His stats for their last 10 on clay are better

Decent chance of 3 sets. Some value on Martinez but Tabilo has a slight edge. Lay Martinez around 1.75 and remove liab at 2.30. Lay set 1 winner. Slight edge to Tabilo ton win.

Update: Tabilo was broken first and we got our entry price. He immediately broke back and we got our exit. We could have repeated the trade as the next 2 games were also breaks. Tabilo got a late break to take the set.

Tabilo took a 3-0 lead in set 2 but Martinez won the next 5 games. He won the set. The third set was quite one sided in favour of Martinez. He took a 5-1 lead. Tabilo got one of the breaks back and had 2 bp’s when Martinez served for the match at 5-4. Martinez held.

Martinez won 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.