Daily match picks

Second round

Bertens (1.60) v Hercog (2.66)

Due to start around 3 pm

Head to heads are 1-1. They last met in Beijing a year ago. Bertens won in 3 sets on a hard court. Hercog’s win was in Dallas in 2012. Bertens retired after the first set.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 are much better for Bertens. Both players have strong clay records but Bertens also has the lead on this surface.

Bertens made a good start to the season on hard courts and indoor courts. She reached the quarter finals in Brisbane and the fourth round at the Australian Open in January. She won the title in St Petersburg indoors in February. She played just 2 matches during lockdown and lost both. She lost to Kvitova on grass and Sevastova on an indoor hard court. She reached the semi finals in Rome last year but retired in the second round of the French Open.

Hercog beat Kaja Juvan in the last round as underdog. Last week she reached the quarter finals in Istanbul. She lost in the first round in Rome last year but then made the third round at the French Open.

Bertens is likely to make a slow start but I favour her to win. Back Bertens if she gets broken first or loses set 1.

Update: Bertens DID make a slow start and was 0-5 down. She made a recovery and won the next 4 games but still lost the set. In set 2 she took the first 3 games. She then seemed to give up and lost 6 of the next 7 games.
Hercog won 6-4, 6-4.

   

Osaka (1.61) v Azarenka (2.6)

Due to start at 9 pm

they have played 4 times. Each won 2 although Azarenka’s last “win” was by walkover in the Cincinnati final 2 weeks ago. Azarenka won their only hard court match which was at the Australian Open in 2016. Both Osaka’s wins were on clay. She won in 3 sets at the French Open last season and in Rome in 2018.

Overall results in the last 12 months and in 2020 are strong for both players but slightly favour Osaka. She also has a slight lead on hard courts. Stats for the tournament are better for Azarenka for everything except service holds. Osaka leads that stat 93% v 78%.

Osaka’s game has got stronger with each match. In the Cincinnati tournament and in the early rounds of this one she seemed to be carry a slight injury. She played a superb match against Jennifer Brady in the semi final. She dropped the second set but actually only faced 2 break points and was broken just once.

Azarenka has lost 2 sets so far including 1 against Serena in the semi finals. She weathered a real storm in that one with Serena trying to get the job done in straight sets. She really seems to be enjoying her tennis since the tour resumed.

This should be a great final and I think we will see 3 sets. We have some value on Azarenka. Lay Osaka if she gets an early break of serve. Remove the liability at 1.60. Back Osaka if she goes a break behind or loses the first set.

I had a few questions yesterday about what markets I use. It is always the match odds market on the Betfair Exchange.

Good luck!

Update: It WAS an excellent final! Azarenka was unplayable in the first set and looked like she would over power Osaka. She easily took the set. In the second set she took a 2-0 lead but her level dropped a little and that allowed Osaka to get back into the match. Osaka broke back immediately and took another two breaks of serve to level the match.
Osaka took a 4-1 lead in the deciding set but Azarenka eventually broke back. Another Osaka break gave the opportunity to serve for the title which she managed to do.
Osaka won 1-6, 6-3, 6-3