Daily match picks

First round

Due to start around 9 pm

Brengle (2.2) v Tsurenko (1.74)

Brengle has won both their previous meetings. They last met in January 2015 in Brisbane. She won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Tsurenko in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Their hard court results are very even with both players winning around 60% of matches in the last year.

Brengle has played 2 matches on hard courts since the restart. She lost both but was huge underdog each time. She performed well in both matches. She kept he sets close against Catherine Bellis in the Cincinnati qualifying rounds and took Aryna Sabalenka to 3 sets in Lexington. In January she won the title in the Newport Beach Challenger. She also won a couple of ITF titles in 2019.

Tsurenko only played 2 matches during lockdown. Both were on clay. Since the restart she has only played on clay in Prague where she made it through the qualifying rounds and beat Ekaterina Alexandrova as underdog before withdrawing from her second round match. Her last hard court tournament was the Indian Wells Challenger in March. She reached the semi finals. She reached the final of an ITF hard court tournament in Cairo in February. She reached the quarter finals of the US Open in 2018.

I expect a close match and we have a good chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Tsurenko around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.95. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Tsurenko withdrew before the match. Brengle beat her replacement, Rodionova, in 2 easy sets.

   

Third Round

Jabeur (1.52) v McHale (2.84)

Due to start around 9:30 pm

McHale won their only previous meeting. That was on a hard court in the Doha qualifying rounds in 2017. She won in 2 tight sets.

Overall results favour Jabeur in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Their hard court results are quite even in the last year.

McHale has come through the qualifying rounds. She beat Iga Swiatek and Ekaterina Alexandrova in the main draw. I thought she would lose to both those players. She has had a shoulder problem over the last couple of years that was affecting her serve. Her serve has improved a great deal this week.

Jabeur beat Madison Keys last night after beating in form Leylah Annie Fernandez in the first round. She didn’t face a single break point against keys who had a poor match. Fernandez gave her more problems and she was broken 6 times in 3 sets.

Stats for the tournament are very even. We have a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. Lay Jabeur around 1.30 and remove some or all of the liability at 1.60.

Lay the set 1 winner. I give a slight edge to Jabeur to win.