Daily match picks

Keys 7-0. Most recent Jan 2020, hard, 2 sets. All matches were on hard. Only 1 of them in 2016 went to 3 sets.

Keys made a slow start in the last round but after that looked pretty solid. She served pretty well.

Kasatkina also served well although her opponent was injured and retired. She did well in the 2 tournaments either side of the Aus Open last season. She reached the final in San Jose and q finals in Cleveland in Aug. Also 3rd rounds at the US Open and in Indian Wells. This is perhaps Kasatkina’s best chance of finally beating Keys but I think it will be tight.

Lay Kasatkina around 1.50 to 1.55 and remove liab at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. I think, based on her last match, that Keys is on her way back after a very dodgy couple of years. I give her the edge.

Update: Kasatkina went a break of serve ahead 3 times in the first set. Keys broke back each time which worked out well. IN the tie break, Keys went 3-1 up but couldn’t hold on to the lead. Kasatkina took the tie break.
In the second set, Keys immediately broke the Kasatkina serve. She took another break near the end of the set and levelled the match.
Keys broke serve at the start of the deciding set but was broken straight back. She broke again for a 3-2 lead but didn’t win another game.

Kasatkina won 7-6, 2-6, 6-3. Several nice trades in this one.

 

WTA Adelaide, first round
Badosa v Azarenka
Due to start at 10 am

Badosa 1-0. (Oct 2021, hard, 3rd set tie break).

Both players won 19 of 28 matches on hard last season. Overall win %’s favour Badosa.

Badosa reached the q finals at the Olympics and also the q finals in Cincinnati in Aug. She won her first WTA1000 title in Indian Wells in October, beating Azarenka in the final.

Azarenka reached 3rd rounds in Chicago, the US Open and Cincinnati. She reached the US Open final in 2020.

Very good chance of 3 sets but I favour Badosa to win. Lay Azarenka around 1.65 and remove liab at 2.20. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Not a great first match of the season for Badosa. Her priced drifted pre match so maybe there was a rumour of a minor injury. Her price went up to around 2.10 when Azarenka held serve. Badosa then held and broke the Azarenka serve. The next 3 games were also breaks. Azarenka got another break to take the set.

Azarenka was too good on the day although Badosa was well below her best. She was broken twice in set 2.

Azarenka won 6-4, 6-2.