WTA Sydney, Second Round
Kasatkina v Mertens
Due to start at 1:30 am

Kasatkina 3-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Kasatkina in 2. Mertens won on hard in 2017, 2 sets.

Long term hard win %’s favour Mertens. 12 month hard results are even.

Kasatkina reached the semis last week. She was poor in that semi and didn’t hold serve once. This week her serve was much better against Kenin.

Mertens didn’t have as good a season in 2021 as she did in 2020. I wasn’t bad though and she reached the 4th round at the Australian Open and 4th round at the US Open. She also reached the semis in San Jose in August.

Fair chance of 3 sets. Stats for their last 10 on hard are quite even.

Back Kasat around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Sydney, Second Round
Badosa v Tomljanovic
Due to start at 8 am

1st meeting.

Long term hard win %’s favour Badosa. She had better results in the last 12 months. Badosa was disappointing last week but played a much better match to beat Ostapenko this week.

Tomljanovic lost to Kenin last week. This week she easily took the 1st set from Schmiedlova but went behind in set 2 before recovering her game and winning in 2 sets.

Back Badosa around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liab at 1.45. If Badosa is a little below her best this can go to 3 sets.

 

WTA Adelaide 2, First round
Potapova v Brengle
Due to start at 00:30

1st meeting. Their win %’s in the last year are even. Most of Brengle’s matches were in ITF’s or Challengers.

Potapova reached the q finals last week. She also made the 3rd round at the Australian Open last season.

Brengle took a set from eventual finalist Kudermetova last week. She is capable of causing Potapova a few problems. Back Potapova around 2.20 and remove liab at 1.65. Back Potapova if she loses the first set.

Update: This was looking like a terrible match! Potapova looked good for 2 games and took a 2-0 lead. The next 3 games were breaks. Potapova was a break ahead twice but was broken back each time. She then went a break behind 3 times. She recovered twice but Brengle held eventually to take the set.
In set 2, Potapova was broken in the first game. She did manage to hold serve a few times and broke back for 4-4. When she held for 5-4, I laid Brengle. Potapova broke to take the set.
In the 3rd set, Potapova’s serve fell apart again and she was broken 3 times.
Brengle won 7-5, 4-6, 6-1.

I had a free bet on Potapova after her first break in set 1. I did add to the position when she went a set and a break behind. Liability wasn’t huge so I let it run and hedged after she took the set.

WTA Adelaide 2, First round
Siniakova v Gauff
Due to start at 10 am

Gauff 2-0. Most recent May 2021, clay, 3 sets. She won indoors in 2020, 2 sets.

Overall win %’s are better for Gauff. She has stronger hard results.

Siniakova had a poor loss last week. She lost to Bondar in straight sets. She was broken 4 times. Her serve stats weren’t terrible. She had played decent tennis towards the end of 2021.

Gauff took Barty to 3 sets last week and looked like she was going to win in 2 sets. She reached the semis in Adelaide last year.

Back Gauff if she gets broken first and remove liability at 1.35. Back her if she loses set 1.

Update: No trade in this one. Gauff took a double break lead in both sets. She won 6-1, 6-2.