Trading Tip – ATP Kitzbuhel, Molcan v Altmaier
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ATP Kitzbuhel
Molcan 1.79 v Altmaier
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10
Molcan 2-0. Most recent July 2026, grass, 4 sets. He won on clay in Apr 2026, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Molcan.
Molcan had a 2 sets win over Ofner in the 1st round.
He reached the Semi finals in Umag 2026, Semi finals in Munich 2026, Quarter finals in Bucharest 2026.
Altmaier had a 2 sets win over Collignon in the 1st round as underdog.
He reached the 2nd round in Bastad 2026. Quarter final in Hamburg 2026. Quarter final in Bucharest 2026.
12 month clay stats favour Molcan
Back Molcan around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.
Match prediction: Molcan in 3 sets.
Embed from Getty ImagesUpdate: Molcan served first. The first 2 games were holds with no break points.
1-0
1-1
Molcan was broken to 15. I laid Altmaier at 1.64 (the same as 2.56 on the Molcan ladder)
1-2
Altmaier went 0-40 behind. I removed liability by laying Molcan at 1.93 using a stake equal to the red on Altmaier.
2-2
The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
3-2
3-3
4-3
Altmaier was broken after being taken to deuce. I hedged evenly at 1.29 on Molcan.
5-3
Molcan served out the set to 30.
6-3
Molcan was priced at 1.24/1.25 at the end of the set.
Stats for the set favour Molcan overall. He had the lower first serve percentage at 66% compared to Altmaier’s 79% but Molcan was winning a higher percentage of points on first serve. Altmaier won 47% of first serve points.
Altmaier served first in the second set. I laid Molcan at 1.25. If it had been a WTA match, I would have waited for the set loser to have their service game before laying. Altmaier held after being taken to deuce.
0-1
The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
1-2
Molcan was broken to 15. My lay of Molcan was risk free so I waited to see if Altmaier could hold.
1-3
Altmaier held to 0. I hedged evenly at 1.75 on Molcan’s ladder.
1-4
Molcan was broken again, this time to 30.
1-5
Altmaier was broken to 15.
2-5
The next 2 games were holds and Altmaier took the set.
3-5
3-6
Stats for the second set were much stronger for Altmaier.
After the set, Molcan was priced at 1.85.
Molcan served first in the third set.
There were no breaks in the first 5 games although Molcan had to save 4 break points when he served at 1-1.
3-2
Altmaier was broken after saving 3 break points. I placed a small lay of Molcan at 1.15.
4-2
Molcan went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.54.
4-3
The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-4
5-4
5-5
6-5
Altmaier saved 3 match point but was eventually broken.
7-5
Molcan won 6-3, 3-6, 7-5.
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