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ATP World Tour Finals – Semi Final – Thiem v Zverev

Dominic Thiem 1.78, Alexander Zverev 2.28

Due to start at 8 pm

Thiem leads their previous matches 5-2. They last met in the French Open quarter final in May last year. Thiem won on clay in straight sets. Thiem won their only indoor match in February 2017. He won in 3 sets.

Thiem has stronger overall results this season. Indoor results also favour him and stats for the tournament favour him.

Thiem’s only loss in the round robin matches was to Matteo Berrettini when he had already qualified for the semi finals. He beat Roger Federer in 2 tight sets in his first match and Djokovic was beaten in a third set tie break.

ATP World Tour Finals - Semi Final - Thiem v Zverev 1
Dominic Thiem – Photo from

Zverev had an easy win over Rafael Nadal in his first match but then lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets. Last night he needed to beat Daniil Medvedev to reach the semi finals and to knock out Nadal. He won in straight sets without facing a single break point. He won this title last year.

We have some value on Zverev and I expect this to go to 3 sets. I favour Thiem to win. Back Thiem around 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: A very tight first set went to Thiem with a late break of serve. He had easily hit our entry price. Unfortunately it was yet another straight sets match.
Thiem won 7-5, 6-3.

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ATP World Tour Finals: Tsitsipas v Zverev

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.16, Alexander Zverev 1.85

Round Robin Stage

Due to start at 8pm.

Tsitsipas leads their previous matches 3-1. Their last meeting was in the Beijing semi final in September. Tsitsipas won on a hard court in 2 close sets. He won both their 2019 matches with the other being on clay in Madrid in May. He won that one in 3 sets.  Zverev won on a hard court in Washington in July last season.

Overall results in 2019 are better for Tsitsipas. His indoor results are also a little stronger this year. Last year Zverev won this tournament and Tsitsipas won the Next Gen tournament.

Both won their last match as big underdog.

Tsitsipas didn’t face a single break point against Medvedev.  It was a match of very few chances but he played the big points well. He only managed to break Medvedev once.  He lost just 5 points on his first serve.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Photo

I expected Zverev to have a decent chance against Nadal and that certainly proved to be the case. Nadal was not at his best but Zverev made life very difficult for him. He served well and didn’t face a break point. He also returned strongly and broke the Nadal serve 3 times.

We have some value on Tsitsipas.  The sets will be very tight and tie breaks are likely. Lay Zverev around 1.65 and remove the liability at 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Very tight first set that went to Tsitsipas with a late break. He dominated the second set.
Tsitsipas won 6-3, 6-2.

    Trading Guide

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