strategies

WTA Bogota, Second Round: Bogdan v Sorribes Tormo

Due to start at 6:30 pm

Bogdan 2.92, Sorribes Tormo 1.50

They have played twice before and won one match each.  Their most recent match was in Monterrey in April 2018. Bogdan won in straight sets on a hard court. Sorribes Tormo won on clay in 2016 when Bogdan retired at 5-1 down in set 3.

Overall results strongly favour Sorribes Tormo in the last 12 months and also in 2019.  Bogdan has won 1 of her 8 matches this season. Sorribes Tormo’s clay results are significantly better. She leads 71% v 42% matches won in the last 12 months.

Bogdan’s only decent clay result in the last 12 months was at this tournament in 2018. She reached the semi finals where she lost in 3 sets to Julia Goerges. That should motivate her.

Sara Sorribes Tormo
Sara Sorribes Tormo

Sorribes Tormo only reached the second round last season but made the semi finals in 2017.  She beat Christina McHale in straight sets in the last round. She pushed Sloane Stephens to two tie breaks last week.

Bogdan will fight hard to defend her ranking points but I have to favour Sorribes Tormo to win. Back her around 1.70.

Update: Sorribes Tormo was broken in her first service game but immediately broke back. She took the set. Bogdan fought back to take it to a deciding set. Sorribes Tormo took a 4-0 lead in the 3rd set but Bogdan pulled back to 4-4. Another break gave Sorribes Tormo the chance to serve for the match which she did successfully.

Sorribes Tormo won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

 

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WTA Monterrey, Final: Azarenka v Muguruza

Due to start at 10:30 pm

Azarenka 1.67, Muguruza 2.44

Azarenka won their only previous meeting.  That was on a hard court in Miami in March 2016. She won in 2 tie breaks.

Overall results favour Muguruza in the last 12 months and also in 2019. She has won 71% of her matches compared to 60% for Azarenka. Her hard court results are also better.

Azarenka has lost just 1 set so far which was in the semi final. Kerber took the second set from her but was outplayed in the deciding set.  Pavlyuchenkova might have been expected to put her under more pressure than she did but was beaten in straight sets.

Victoria Azarenka
Victoria Azarenka

Muguruza has also lost just 1 set this week. Gasparyan took the tie break second set in their third round match.  She was too strong for Rybarikova in the semi final.

Stats for the tournament favour Azarenka. She has also had tougher opponents. We have a good chance of seeing 3 sets.

I favour Azarenka to win. Back her around 1.90.

ATP Miami Open: Tiafoe v Ferrer

Due to start at 11:30 pm

Tiafoe 2.04, Ferrer 1.94

This is their first meeting.

Ferrer has better overall results this season. He is a former top 3 player. His form has been well below his best for a couple of years. He looked like his old self in the last round in his 3 sets win over Alexander Zverev. He had lost to Zverev in Indian Wells in straight sets. He has had some great results in Miami in the past including reaching the final in 2013 when he lost in a third set tie break to Andy Murray.

David Ferrer
David Ferrer

Tiafoe had a good win over in form Kecmanovic in the last round.  He reached the quarter finals at the Australian Open. Since then his losses have all been as pre match favourite.  He hasn’t won back to back matches since Melbourne. In fact Melbourne was the only tournament that he won 2 matches at.

If Ferrer can maintain his form from the last match he wins. Back Ferrer around 2.10.

Update: Ferrer hit the entry price and got the first break of serve. He couldn’t hold on to it and Tiafoe pulled back to 4-4. A late break gave the set to Ferrer. He was not able to break the Tiafoe serve again.

Tiafoe won 5-7, 6-3, 6-3.