Trading tennis

WTA Bogota, Kostova v Lepchenko

Due to start at 8 pm

Kostova 2.44, Lepchenko 1.62

Lepchenko won their only previous meeting.  That was at the Australian Open in January 2012. She won easily in straight sets.

Overall results are quite even in the last 12 months but favour Kostova in 2019. Kostova has stronger clay results.

Kostova’s best results on clay were in ITF events. She lost in the qualifying rounds this week to Irina Maria Bara. Did she know that she had a lucky loser place in the main draw? I think she did.

 Elitsa Kostova
Elitsa Kostova

Lepchenko has a winning career record on clay but won 23 of her last 50 and just 2 from 7 in the last 12 months.

Value on Kostova. Good chance of 3 sets. Lay Lepchenko around 1.45 to 1.50.

 

WTA Miami Open, Semi Final: Pliskova v Halep

Due to start at 1 am

Pliskova 2.5, Halep 1.65

Halep leads their previous matches 7-2. Their last meeting was in a Fed Cup tie. It was on an indoor court in the Czech Republic in February this year.  Halep won in 3 sets.  Pliskova’s last win was on clay in 2018.

Their overall results in the last 12 months are quite even. Pliskova has a small edge in 2019. Hard court results favour Pliskova in the last 12 months and also in 2019.  She lost the opening set against Cornet and Putintseva. She looked more solid in the quarter final and Vondrousova managed just 1 break of serve.

Simona Halep
Simona Halep

Halep has had tougher opponents in Miami. She lost her only set of the tournament to arguably her weakest opponent.  Polona Hercog had lost in the qualifying rounds but was given a lucky loser place in the main draw. She took the opening set from Halep and set 2 went to a tie break. Since then Halep has beaten Venus Williams and Qiang Wang in straight sets.

Stats for the tournament favour Halep. Pliskova has a higher service hold percentage but Halep is not far behind. Back Halep around 1.90.

 

WTA Indian Wells, Fourth Round: Svitolina v Barty

Due to start 9 pm

Svitolina 1.76, Barty 2.26

Svitolina has won all 4 of their previous meetings. They last played In Miami in March 2018. She won in straight sets on a hard court. Barty has taken just 1 set from her which was in a Fed Cup tie in 2017. That was their first meeting.

Overall results favour Barty in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Hard court results also favour Barty.

Svitolina has had 2 tight matches so far. She was broken 6 times by Gavrilova. Her second serve was poor. In her first match she lost the opening set to Kenin. In the second set it was Kenin who had more break chances but they ended up in a tie break. The tie break was really close too. Svitolina took a double break lead in the deciding set. She gave one of them back but held on for the match.

Ashleigh Barty
Ashleigh Barty

Barty was broken 3 times by Maria in her 1st match but was much more solid against Brady and was broken just once. Stats for the tournament favour her.

Very good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Barty. Svitolina has a lot more experience in Indian Wells but has never gone beyond the last 16.

Lay Svitolina if she breaks first. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Svitolina served for all 3 sets but was broken each time! Very tight match. Barty was a break up in the 3rd set but it was Svitolina who won 7-6, 5-7, 6-4. 

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