wimbledon

ATP Wimbledon, Men’s Final: Djokovic v Federer

Due to start at 2 pm.

Djokovic 1.58, Federer 2.68

Djokovic leads their previous matches 27-22. Their last meeting was in Paris on an indoor hard court.  Djokovic won in a 3rd set tie break. He has won their last 3 matches and 5 of their last 6.

They last played on grass at Wimbledon in 2015, Djokovic won in 4 sets. They have met 3 times on grass. All of them were at Wimbledon. Both Djokovic’s wins were in finals and Federer’s win was in the semi final in 2012.

Overall results are pretty even in the last 12 months and in 2019. Both players have superb results on grass. Of their last 50 on this surface Djokovic won 46 and Federer won 44. Stats for the tournament are even but Federer’s opponents have held serve more often.

Djokovic has lost just 2 sets so far. That is quite unusual for him in slams. He has usually had a 5 setter at this stage. He has made a couple of slow starts but once he has got his serve going he has been tough to break down.

 

Federer has only lost 3 sets in the tournament. Nishikori broke him at the start of their quarter final and Federer wasn’t able to recover but fought back well to win in 4 sets.  He was very impressive in the semi final. He took the opening set in a tie break but struggled on serve in the next set. After that he gave very little away on his serve and Nadal could find a way to break him.

Federer needs his serve to be at its very best. Anything less will not be good enough. Djokovic will prefer long rallies. When Federer is playing his best tennis the points are quite short. Djokovic more than any of the top players lifts his game a level or 2 for the really big occasions. Federer lifted his level against Nadal and it will be tough to do that again over 5 sets with Djokovic. This will be 4 or 5 sets so we have some value on Federer. Nadal was disappointing against Federer and Serena was a no show in the women’s final so I am hoping Djokovic isn’t a no show today.

Lay Djokovic if he breaks first. Back him if Federer gets the first break or wins set 1. Laying the set 1 winner is a good option. The longer the match goes on, the more I favour Djokovic to defend his title.

Update: Djokovic won 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12

 

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WTA Wimbledon, Women’s Final: S. Williams v Halep

Due to start at 2 pm

Serena Williams 1.59, Simona Halep 2.68

Serena leads their previous matches 9-2. The last time they met was at the Australian Open in January. Serena won in 3 sets. She has won their last 5 matches. All those were on hard. She won on grass at Wimbledon in 2011, 3 sets. One of Simona’s wins was by walkover!

Their overall win percentages in the last 12 months are quite even but Simona has played more matches. Both have excellent grass results in the last year. Long term grass results are better for Serena. Serena has better service hold stats for the tournament but other stats favour Simona.

Serena reached 2 slam finals last year but lost both including the straight sets loss to Kerber at Wimbledon. She also reached the final at the Australian Open in 2017 losing to her sister in 2 sets. She must be getting frustrated at losing her last 3 slam finals as she needs 1 more win to equal the record held by Margaret Court. She looked very focused in the semi final and breezed past Strycova. Despite her claiming that she is not interested in equalling the record number of slam wins she really wants her 24th title. She may get tight if she gets into a winning position.

 

Simona Halep was also comfortable in the semi final with one of her best performances of the tournament. Svitolina didn’t hold serve in the 1st set. She finally won her first slam title at the French Open in 2018. She made a slow start to the tournament but improved against Azarenka in the third round.

I think we have a chance of 3 sets but I have to favour Serena to win. Back Serena around 1.90 or wait for her to be broken before backing. Lay Serena if she gets the first break in the match.

 

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WTA Wimbledon 2019, Women’s Semi Final: Svitolina v Halep

Due to start at 1 pm

Svitolina 3.15, Halep 1.46

Head to heads are 4-4. They last met on a hard court In Doha in February. Halep won in 3 sets.  They have never met on grass.

H2H
Head to head info from Tennis Insight

Halep has better overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Grass results also favour her.

Halep has lost just 1 set so far. She was not that impressive in her first 2 matches but stepped up against Azarenka to win in straight sets after a slow start. She made another slow start in the quarter final and was 1-4 down against Zhang. Once she found her serve she controlled the rest of that match.

 

Svitolina has lost 2 sets so far. She was poor in the second round and should have lost to Gasparyan. Gasparyan retired injured when she was a set up. She played a bit better against Sakkari in the 3rd round but still needed 3 sets. In the 4th round Martic was injured and in the quarter final Muchova was mentally tired after a huge win over Pliskova.

Stats for the tournament favour Halep in everything except service holds. Back Halep around 1.80 or wait for her to be broken before backing.

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