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28th February 2015

Here is yesterday’s Trading Spreadsheet. Just in case you haven’t signed up yet and need to see what you’re missing!

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ATP Dubai Duty Free Championships, 13:00 – Djokovic v Federer

Head to heads are 19-19! (although their last match was a Djokovic win due to walkover). The 6 mon stats favour Federer on serve and Djokovic on return.

Djokovic looked to be steaming into the final when he won the 1st set 6-0 over Berdych. In the end he scraped through 6-4 in the 3rd. His 2nd serve was surprisingly poor winning just 45% of 2nd serve points. Federer’s 2nd serve was even worse despite an easy win over Coric. He won just 41% of 2nd serve points.

Djokovic has won 8 of his last 10 finals. Both losses were due to him withdrawing before the match! I have to go with him to win this one too. He just has an extra gear to use when needed and especially so in finals.

They played 5 times in 2014 and Federer took the opening set in the last 4. We have a good chance of getting a better price on Djokovic.

 

 

 

WTA Qatar Total Open, 15:00 – Safarova v Azarenka

Azarenka leads 6-0.  Their last match was in 2011. Safarova hasn’t taken a set from her on hard courts.

The 6 month stats show Safaroma is  stronger on serve and Azarent a  stronger on return.

Safarova  was just too strong for Suarez Navarro in the semi final.  She also cruised through her quarter final win over Petkovic. She hasn’t won a final as underdog since Aug 2008.

Azarenka had to fight hard to beat Venus in 3 sets. Her 2nd serve was poor at 35% of points won and Safarova will be able to attack that as Venus did. Azarenka  saved 10 of the 13 bp she faced. Azarenka’s 2nd serve points won have not been above 36% all week. She has won 3 of her 7 finals going back to 2013 although 3 of her 4 losses were to Serena!

Safarova is serving well enough to take this to 3 sets. Azarenka is mentally stronger in the big matches and should come out on top.

Azarenka starts around 1.57 but I think we will get a chance to back her higher in the opening few games.

 

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27th February 2015

Here is yesterday’s Trading Spreadsheet 26feb2015ws

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Another day of profit from the Shark Tips service yesterday.

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WTA Qatar Total Open, 15:00 – V Williams v Azarenka

Venus leads the head to heads 4-0. Their most recent meeting was in 2014 on a hard court and she won in 2 sets. All matches were won in straight sets.

The 6 month stats favour Venus on serve and Azarenka on return. Venus’ 2nd serve looked vulnerable yesterday and Aza has bigger ground strokes to attack it more than Radwanska did.

Both Azarenka and Woznicki were very poor on 2nd serves yesterday but we should bear in mind the wind was really strong during their match. There were still only 2 double faults by Azarenka despite the conditions.

Venus must be drained from her last match and I think Azarenka’s ground strokes can really hurt her today. The head to head is surprising though. I see 3 sets and slightly favour Azarenka for the win.

 

 

WTA Abierto Mexicano Open, 22:00 – Bacsinszky v Karatantcheva

They have never met. Bacsinszky has lost just two matches this year (to Halep and Muguruza).

Karatantcheva  was beaten in the qualification rounds but was given a Lucky Loser place in the main draw. She has taken full advantage of her second chance. She beat Puig in the last round in 3 sets. She doesn’t often play so many matches in a week so her legs may be a little heavy. Her second serve yesterday was poor and she was broken 7 times. She won 40% of her 2nd serve points. Puig was broken 1 less time.

Karatantcheva  will give this everything she has left and I expect to see Bacsinszky trading higher than her SP of 1.26 . Bacsinszky will come through a tight match but is worth a lay at 1.26 .

 

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26th February 2015

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Here is yesterday’s spreadsheet so you see what you get.  25feb2015ej

 

 

WTA Qatar Total Open, 15:30 – Kvitova v Suarez Navarro

Kvitova leads the head to heads 5-3. Suarez Navarro has won their last 2 meetings including last week in Dubai. Their last 2 meetings went to 3 sets.

The 6 month stats don’t favour either player. Stats against common opponents favour Kvitova.

Suarez Navarro somehow beat Pliskova yesterday. I thought Pliskova would be tired and would serve badly as her swerve in the previous round had been below its normal level. That wasn’t the case and she served really well!  Suarez Navarro was under a lot more pressure on serve and saved all 6 of the break points that  Pliskova had.

Kvitova somehow gave up a break lead to go a break behind against Jankovic. Jankovic was injured and retired in set 2. Kvitova’s 2nd serve was poor and she faced 7 break points (she saved 5 of them).

This looks like another 3 setter. Value is on Suarez Navarro. Lay Kvitova when she is  a break ahead.

 

 

 

ATP Abierto Mexicano Open, 21:00 – Anderson v Troicki

Troicki won their only previous match but that was in 2011.

Both have been in strong form in 2015. The 6 month stats favour Troicki but they are very close. He is a little further ahead when comparing matches against common opponents.

Anderson served well to beat Johnson but his second serve was getting hammered. Troicki’s 1st serve percentage could do with being higher but he won 68% of points on his second serve against Giraldo.

Troicki has the edge for me but this will be a tight match with very few breaks. Anderson’s price is way too low in what will be a serve dominated match.

 

 

 

WTA Abierto Mexicano Open , 23:30 – Larsson v Bacsinszky

Bacsinszky leads the head to heads 2-0. Their last meeting was in the Fed Cup earlier this month. She won in 2 sets.

Larsson is a machine at the moment! She reached the semis in harsh conditions last week and I expected her to be tired but she has won both her matches easily as underdog.

Bacsinszky has won 8 of her last 10 matches. She hasn’t looked comfortable this week though. I can see this one going to  3 sets. Tough to call the winner but Value is on Larsson as long as she doesn’t run out of energy.

Bacsinszky starts around 1.50

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