1st October 2014

ATP Japan Open, 06:00 – Golubev v Sock

Sock had an excellent win over Dolgopolov in the last round. Dolgopolov wasn’t 100% as he is returning after injury but Sock did his job well.

Golubev has lost his way a little recently. Before this week he has lost in the first round in 4 of his last 5 tournaments.  His stats in the first round this week were solid. He saved all 8 of the break points that Herbert had and his first serve percentage and points won on his first serve were good.

The fast courts in Japan favour Sock’s big serve and I don’t think Golubev will find it easy to break him.

Sock starts at 1.43 which doesn’t really offer any value. We can get a better price on him without a break. Even 0-30 on his serve will give us a price above 1.60 which starts to offer value.

 

 

ATP Japan Open, 07:00 – Simon v Muller

Simon dodged a bullet yesterday. Bautista Agut won the first set and then had several match points in set 2. Simon held on and took the set in a tie break before Bautista Agut retired early in set 3.

Muller looked fairly comfortable against Delbonis winning in straight sets.

They have played just once before but that was 10 years ago.

Muller has been having a great deal of success on the Challanger hard courts but has been unfortunate with his opponents on the main tour. Losses against Tsonga and Gasquet were not unexpected but he will have been disappointed to lose to Mathieu at the US Open in 4 sets.

Simon has never been beyond the second round at this tournament. Muller reached the quarter finals once but that was back in 2004.

I am going with Muller to take this one. As with Sock the faster courts will work in his favour. Simon starts at 1.60. A lay on Simon below 1.40 would be nice but I will see how the opening games go.

 

 

WTA China Open, 12:30 – Suarez Navarro v Sharapova

I was disappointed on Tuesday when Sharapova didn’t start slowly. The nearest we got to it was 0-30 in the first game which pushed her price up but I was waiting for a break so didn’t take it.

Suarez Navarro made a quick start against Pennetta and easily took the opening set. She looked comfortable in set 2 but fell apart and Pennetta was able to level the match before Carla cruised through the decider.

Suarez Navarro won their last meeting which in Montreal at the beginning of August. Hopefully she can put Sharapova under pressure again and give us a better price to back her than the 1.30 SP. Sharapova looked very good against Svitolina so I won’t be laying but will wait for a better price.

 

 

ATP China Open, 14:30 – Isner v Robredo

Robredo had a tough week last week. he had championship points against Murray but lost the set and then the deciding set. In his first set this week it looked like he may be ready for a rest but having lost that set to Seppi he found his second wind and came back to win in 3.

Isner leads the head to heads 2-1 though Robredo’s win was in an exhibition event.  He reached the quarter finals last season. In his first match he easily beat Giraldo in straight sets.

Robredo is known for his ability to remain competitive even after a very tough schedule but I think he will fall to Isner today. Robredo gave Seppi a lot of break point opportunities in his last match and if Isner plays at the level he did in the last round he won’t give Robredo many chances and will be able to convert break more break points than Seppi.

Isner starts at 1.58 which I see as being a decent price on him. I expect him to be more consistent today.

 

 

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30th Sep 2014

ATP China Open, 11:30 – Murray v Janowicz

Murray hasn’t had much time to recover from his title win last week.

Head to heads are 2-1 to Murray although 1-1 in the last 3 seasons. Their last meeting was at Wimbledon last year and Janowicz took a set from the Brit.

Murray starts at 1.24 but I think we will see higher. He really needs some points this week if he is to make the year end finals.

If Janowicz can get an early break I will back Murray.

 

 

ATP China Open, 14:30 – Gulbis v Fognini

Gulbis leads the head to heads 3-1 but I feel he is still too low at 1.49 . Having said that Fognini is the player most likely to start slowly.

Both can be volatile and if they try to get under one another’s skin this could be entertaining.

This is Fognini’s first tournament since the US Open although he did play against the Swiss in Davis Cup where he was beaten by Federer and Wawrinka.

I have to go with Gulbis as he reached the semi finals last week and his serve looked in good shape. It would be nice if Fognini could get his nose in front for a better entry price but I think it is more likely that the Italian will need a game or three to get his timing.

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29th Sep 2014

All today’s blog matches are from the WTA event in China.

 

WTA China Open, 09:00 – Jankovic v Cornet

They have played 3 times before with Jankovic winning each time. They haven’t played for over 5 years though.

There a slight concern about Jankovic retiring from the second round match last week but as long as she is fir this should be a good match up of styles for her. Cornet played well at times last week but had some luck when Serena retired and really should have lost to Flipkens.

Jankovic starts at 1.79 and i will have a part stake on her at the start but I want to see how she plays in the early games before adding to that.

 

 

WTA China Open, 11:30 – Zhang v Garcia

Garcia had a superb week in Wuhan last week beating Venus and Radwanska in third set tie breaks before falling to Kvitova. She starts this one at 1.51 which is a decent price considering Zhang’s recent form.

Since her semi final in Birmingham Zhang has managed just one win in 6 tournaments which was  over Watson in Cincinnati.

There is no reason for Garcia not to be up for this one and if she continues her form of last week she should take this comfortably. This is WTA of course and anything can happen.

 

 

WTA China Open, 14:30 – Davis v Xu

Xu had wins over Scheepers and Kudryavtseva in the qualifying rounds.

Davis is having a poor run right now and has lost her last 6 matches. Three of them were as pre match favourite.

Davis starts as 1.72 favourite. Chinese player often raise their game in their own country and I think Xu can at least trade a lot lower in this one. It would be nice to get a lay on Davis below 1.40 before Xu can trade odds on.

It should be a tight match but with a few breaks of serve.

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