28th August 2015

Watch out for my previews of the US Open draws over the next day or so.

 

 

ATP Winston-Salem Open, 20:00 – Herbert v Johnson

In the quarter final it looked like Herbert was finally going out but he won the second set tie break from  Carreno Busta and ran away with the decider. He has now played 7 matches.

Johnson moved through to the semis when Chung withdrew before their quarter final. Johnson has been serving at a high level this week and will be the fresher player. He will also have the crowd right behind him.

Herbert will serve well but when a player gets tired their error count increases and their serves don’t find the target.

The sets will be close but Johnson will be more consistent. No value on him at 1.47 though. Back Johnson if he loses set 1. Herbert will need to give everything to win the opening set and will fade if he manages it.

 

 

 

WTA Connecticut Open, midnight, Wozniacki v Kvitova

Head to heads are  5-5. The most recent was in  2014 on an indoor hard court.  Wozniacki won in 2 sets. She has won their last 2 matches.

The 12 month hard court stats favour Wozniacki in everything except service holds. She also leads when comparing stats against common opponents.

Wozniacki defends final points at the US Open so will want to be as fresh as she can be for that. The matches at slams have a day between them so there is a chance to recover. She hasn’t won a title this season so will probably not want to waste this chance.

Kvitova is the defending champion this week. She has had a couple of tough matches in the last 2 days and may not have the energy for another.

I favour Wozniacki to get the win but will wait for a better price. Back Wozniacki if she gets broken first.

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27th August 2015

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WTA Connecticut Open, 18:00 – Tsurenko v Pliskova

Pliskova leads their previous matches 2-1. The most recent was in 2012 on carpet and Pliskova won in straight sets.

The 12 month hard court stats favour Tsurenko. She had an impressive win over Strycova in the last round. She had won just 1 game in her last qualifying round match but I felt that was because she knew she had a lucky loser place in the main draw. Having read her press conference after the Strycova match I don’t know if she is lying about feeling really bad in the qualifying match. Obviously she can’t admit to not giving 100%.

Pliskova played a more controlled match in the last round.  She only faced 1 break point which was taken.

If both players are interested in this match then I think we see 3 sets.

Back Pliskova if she goes a break behind or if she loses set 1.

 

 

 

WTA Connecticut Open, 19:30 – Safarova v Cibulkova

Cibulkova leads their previous meetings 3-1. The most recent was this season on grass. Cibulkova won in 2 sets.

Cibulkova is still having a few problems on serve but she always will. She isn’t much taller than the net! The thing we have seen from her this week is the fighting spirit that got her to the Australian Open final last year.

Safarova served very well in the last round. She seemed a lot more confident in her own game.

I think this goes to 3 sets and I favour Safarova to get the win as long as she is committed to the match. Being so close to a slam it is a tricky period to assess the players’ motivation.

Back Safarova if she gets broken first.

 

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26th August 2015

WTA Connecticut Open, 18:30 – Radwanska v Cornet

Radwanska leads their previous meetings  6-2. Their most recent was this month on a hard court. and Radwanska won in 3 sets. They have played 3 times this season. Radwanska won the last 2 and Cornet won in an exhibition event in January.rad3

The 12 month stats slightly favour Radwanska but not conclusively. Stats comparing matches with the same opponents favour Cornet.

Radwanska must fancy her chances of winning this tournament. She lost just 2 games in her win over Vandeweghe. Cornet had an odd match with Putintseva which she won 6-2, 0-6, 6-2.

Radwanska should be too consistent today but we need her to be broken early for better value. Back Radwanska when she is a break behind.

 

 

 

WTA Connecticut Open, 20:00 – Vinci v Wozniacki

Heads to heads are  2-2. They played twice last season and won 1 each. Wozniacki won on a hard court and Vinci on clay. All their matches were won in 2 sets.

Wozniacki reached the US Open final last year. I doubt she still wants to be involved in this tournament at the weekend.  Both players were impressive in their last match with Vinci losing just 1 game to Bouchard and Wozniacki dropping 2 games to Riske.

I think this will be their first 3 setter. I favour Wozniacki for the win but Vinci has been playing excellent tennis recently.  I still feel Wozniacki needs a competitive match this week to get ready for defending her ranking points in New York.

Back Wozniacki if she goes a break behind.

 

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