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Rome 2012, Semi Finals

19 May 2012, 9:13 am

Li v S Williams: ***UPDATE Williams has withdrawn with a lower back injury***

Head to heads are 5-1 to Williams. They have never played on clay.

Li has been in excellent form this week but in her last 2 matches she has almost thrown away a huge lead.  Against Cibulkova she was 4-0 up in the second set and against Scheepers she had a 4-1 lead in the first set. Both sets were won by Li in a tie break.

Williams has shot up the rankings since her return to the tour and when she’s in the mood can play some impressive tennis. She has lost just 1 set this week which was against an inspired Petrova in the second round. In her quarter final she was 4-0 up against Pennetta when the Italian quit through injury.

If Williams is going to be vulnerable it is in the early games of the opening set. I don’t really give Li a huge chance to take the match. If she can maintain her high level of play without the lapses in concentration then she could take the opening set but I feel its more likely that she will get an early break but not be able to hold on to it. That would be great to give us a higher price to back the American.

 

Kerber v Sharapova:

They have played twice before and both matches were this year. They won 1 match each. Both matches were on hard courts.

Sharapova hasn’t lost a set this week but has had a battle in each of her 3 matches. Against McHale and Ivanovic she had to recover from being a break down in the first set. Venus Williams pushed her very close in their quarter final and especially in the opening set. Sharapova has served reasonably well and when the pressure has mounted she has dealt with the situation better than her opponent.

Kerber has had the easier draw but has still had to get past Kvitova and Goerges.  A concern for Kerber backers will be the 1-6 loss of the second set to Kvitova. She did come back strongly to win the third set by the same score.

Kerber’s best chance is to take the opening set.  The last time Sharapova won the opening set but lost the match was the final of Cincinnati in August 2010 to Clijsters.

Kerber has had a great week but I favour Sharapova to win this. However I feel that her starting price of 1.42 is too low. I’ll be waiting for anything over 1.70 unless its clear that Shara is in control from an early stage.

 

Ferrer v Nadal:

Head to heads are 15-5 in Nadal’s favour.  On clay it’s 11-1 ( Ferrer’s win was in 2004)

Nadal seems to be on a mission this week. He wasn’t happy with the blue clay in Madrid and perhaps blames it for him losing his number 2 ranking. It took someone like an in form Berdych to put up some respectable resistance to him this week.

Ferrer has also won all his matches in straight sets. He has played at a high level to overcome 3 experienced clay courters in Gasquet, Simon and Verdasco.

Given the head to head and Nadal’s attitude this week I can’t really give Ferrer too much of a chance today. Nadal starts at 1.13 which could be worth a lay but don’t get too greedy.

 

Djokovic v Federer:

Probably the match most are waiting to see today.

Federer leads the head to heads 14-11. On clay Fed leads 3-1.

Its unusual to see Djokovic unable to understand why his game is faltering. Monaco put him under a lot of pressure but Djokovic’s problems were of his own making. Before his amazing rise to number 1 one of his weaknesses was his serve and that seems to be the case this week. He was also broken twice in the first set against Tsonga. He will be well aware of how important it will be to serve well against Federer.

Federer faced local hero Seppi who had already beaten Wawrinka and Isner.  Federer despatched him for the loss of just 3 games playing some very aggressive tennis. Ferrero rolled back a year or two to take Federer to 3 sets. The Spaniard served extremely well with a first serve % of 79 compared to just 51% from Federer. Despite that Federer gave him just 3 break point chances of which 1 was taken in the second set.

This match could come down to who serves the best. I expect Federer to come out aggressively in the first set. If the tactic works and he is able to take the first set then he really needs to avoid letting his level drop in the second set.

Djokovic starts as favourite at 1.94 although last night he was nearer 1.80 . I am favouring Federer. Djokovic isn’t playing as well as last season and I feel Federer has the better clay court game.

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Rome 2012, Friday

18 May 2012, 10:29 am

Some unexpected results this week and some other matches not being as straight forward as we might expect. Probably a lot of the top players have one eyes on Roland Garros next week and don’t want to use up too much energy or risk injury.

 

Djokovic v Tsonga:

Head to heads are 6-4 in Tsonga’s favour although their last “meeting” was a walkover to the Frenchman in Paris last November.

They have never played on clay. Tsonga’s game isn’t best suited to the slower surface. 4 of his wins over Djokovic came on indoor hard courts.

Djokovic started so badly against Monaco in the last round. Just 47% of first serves in meant he was putting himself under added pressure. From his body language he just didn’t understand why things weren’t working and as Monaco finally held serve to take the first set the world number 1 smashed his racquet to pieces. Monaco wasn’t making life any easier for Djokovic in that set as he was playing some superb tennis with the occasional booming passing shot for good measure.

In these situations you just expect the top player to find a way to get his game back on track. I had a lay on him at around 1.45 from the first set which I left open although I was ready to exit at the first sign of revival.

The second set started the same way and Djokovic was broken in the third game. If Monaco could hold for 3-1 he had a great chance. He didn’t win a single point in that service game and that was the turning point of the match. 4 straight games from Djokovic levelled the match at 1 set all and whilst Monaco kept the third set tight the result wasn’t really in doubt.

Tsonga for me never really looks comfortable on clay. I watched his match with Troicki in the 2nd round and it all looked rather half-hearted. Troicki made his task a lot easier it has to be said.

I expected Del Potro to be in the quarter finals but his knee injury made him a spectator in their second set as he went for the big winners early in rallies to try to shorten the points.

Djokovic will have been thinking about that first set against Monaco and won’t want to repeat it. He also won’t want another warning for racquet abuse although obviously the fine won’t bother him! Maybe he took Monaco for granted. He had won all 5 of their previous matches and had never lost a set against the Argentinian. He wasn’t mentally prepared for the match and had to sort himself out on the court. That shouldn’t be an issue today. There can’t be many players left who have a positive head to head record against him and you can guarantee his will be focused from the very first point.

If this was a hard court then I would say Tsonga had a chance. Djokovic isn’t at the same level as he was last year but I think today Tsonga will suffer because of Monaco winning that first set yesterday. The defending champion has more motivation today to put in a good performance especially as his next opponent would most likely be Federer if they both make it through today.

Tsonga may nick the second set but I think its more likely to be straight sets for Djokovic.

Update: Both players took a while to settle on their own serve. There were 5 breaks of serve in the opening set with the  final one giving Djokovic the set.

One way traffic in the second and Djokovic won 7-5, 6-1.

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Rome 2012, Thursday

17 May 2012, 8:54 am

Gasquet v Murray:

Head to heads are 3-3. Murray has won their last 2 matches with one of those being on clay at the French Open 2010.

Gasquet has been in good form. In his last 3 tournaments he reached the 4th round in Miami losing to Djokovic, the final in Estoril losing to Del Potro and the 3rd round last week losing to Federer. In the first round this week he beat Melzer in straight sets.

Murray beat Nalbandian in the last round but needed 3 sets. He pulled out of Madrid last week with a back problem and he seemed to be feeling that against Fat Dave.

A fully fit Murray would be expected to beat Gasquet relatively easily but if he is suffering with his back then Gasquet is a player who will be able to take advantage. On clay the Frenchman is able to find amazing angles especially with his back hand and Murray will need all his chasing ability to deal with them.

Murray looked good in the first set against Nalbandian and he will obviously be keen to repeat that form in the early stages. Not a great deal of value at 1.39 with the uncertainty about his back.

I will be watching the early games to see how he is moving although it is likely to be the second set before anything becomes apparent. If he seems ok I will hope to grab a price above 1.70 on Murray.

Update: Murray started fairly well and created a lot of chances but wasted so many break points. He finally got one. Murray served for the set and was broken. The set went to a tie break which Murray played superbly and won 7-1.

In set 2 Murray switched off and soon found himself 1-5 down. He pulled a break back but it was too little too late. In the third he was holding his side  ( he always finds something that hurts when he’s losing). He was broken in his last 2 service games.

Gasquet won 6-7, 6-3, 6-2.

 

Ivanovic v Sharapova:

Sharapova leads the head to heads 4-2. They each have 1 win due to the other player retiring including their most recent meeting when Ivanovic retired at Indian Wells in March.

Both players   are former world number 1′s who have found some of their old form in recent months. This should be a great match.

Sharapova started slowly against McHale in the last round. To be fair the American was playing well above her normal level but it needed a talk with her coach to get things back on track. From 1-4 down she came back to win the set 7-5.

Ivanovic has been very consistent this season and it has taken strong players to trouble her.

I have to favour Sharapova in this one although I think it will be close. As the set or match nears its end she will be mentally stronger.

1.58 is not a million miles away from being correct IMO although for me value kicks in around 1.90 to 2.00 .

Update: Sharapova started badly and went 2 breaks of serve down. She pulled one back and as Ivanovic served for the first set Sharapova broke again. The set went to a tie break. Ivanovic managed to get a mini break ahead but was again pulled back. Sharapova took the set.

The second set saw more breaks than holds. Ivanovic had a 3-1 lead but 6 straight games from Sharapova won the set and the match.

Sharapova won 7-6, 6-3.

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Rome 2012, Wednesday

16 May 2012, 9:17 am

Knapp v Cibulkova:

They have never played before.

Knapp knocked out fellow Italian Vinci in 3 sets in the last round. She lost her way a little in set 2 but generally served well.  Four years ago she was ranked 35 so even though she has dropped down the rankings she still knows how to play the better players and the tactics involved. Its just a matter of getting the body to do what she knows it needs to!

Two weeks ago  she came through qualifying in Estoril to reach the semi final where she lost to Suarez Navarro in straight sets. She was probably tired having played 7 matches that week. She defeated 2nd seed Kirilenko en route to the semis.

Cibulkova has had an average season so far but a couple of good weeks in March/April saw her come so close to beating Azarenka in Miami. She then moved to the clay of Barcelona and lost in the final to Sara Errani.

Cibulkova’s weakness is her serve. It can’t help her being so small! I think Knapp will have the opportunity to attack the serve today and her recent form suggests she will have some success with that.

Cibulkova starts at 1.40 and that is a lay from the start for me. I feel Knapp has a real chance of at least taking the opening set. Cibulkova will certainly fight all the way and if Knapp does manage to take the first set I would expect a 3 setter. Cibulkova is favourite to take a long match.

Update: Knapp took a set but it was the second set! She threatened serve in the early games but there was no great price rise early on.

Cibulkova won 6-3, 4-6, 6-1.

 

 Wawrinka v Tipsarevic:

They have only played once before which was in a qualifying round  8 years ago. It went to 3 sets but as it was on a hard court and so long ago its pretty much irrelevant.

What a week Tipsarevic had on the blue clay in Madrid! He beat Simon in an excellent 3rd round match and then faced Djokovic in the quarter final. Despite the complaints about the surface it was the same for both players and Tipsarevic dealt with it better and won in straight sets. I don’t think he was happy with his performance in the semi final against Federer but it was still an excellent week’s work.

Wawrinka’s clay court season has been going well with a quarter final in Monte Carlo ( lost to Nadal) and a semi final in Estoril ( lost to Del Potro). In Madrid he reached the third round losing to Djokovic.

Wawrinka has lost his last 10 matches against top 10 players. He has a decent record in Rome with a final and a quarter final in the last 4 years. It has been a top 10 player who knocked him out in the last 4 years.

Tipsarevic has a poor record  in Rome although in 2008 and 2009 he came up against Gonzo and was a massive underdog. He didn’t play in 2011 and 2010 saw a first round loss to Chardy.

Tipsarevic had a tough week last week both mentally and physically. He may be a little jaded in this match if it looks like being a tough one and with no points to defend he can perhaps be forgiven for a lack of motivation.

Wawrinka is the betetr clay courter and I have to give him the edge here. I don’t expect Tipsarevic to roll over but I’m not sure he will have the heart for the fight if he goes a set behind.

Update: Wawrinka was broken in the very first game but he broke back immediately. Neither player was holding easily. Wawrinka was leading  5-1 in the first set and served for the set twice before he succeeded.

In the second set Wawrinka won an early break and Tipsarevic more or less gave up after that.

Wawrinka won 6-3, 6-1.

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Rome 2012, Tuesday

15 May 2012, 9:23 am

V Williams v Halep:

Williams won their only previous match earlier this month. It was settled in a third set tie break.

Williams is a long way short of her best form since her return from illness. However since her come-back match in March she has had wins over Kvitova, Ivanovic and Jankovic. She has taken Stosur to 3 sets which was in the quarter finals of the Family Circle Cup.

Halep has been in decent form on the clay. She reached the quarter finals in Barcelona and the semi finals of the Grand prix de Sar although as seeds dropped she was expected to win that title.

Williams starts at 1.50 which seems too low based on their previous match. How much that result is relevant is unknown with the blue clay situation. We have live video for this match and I will wait before getting involved. You would expect Williams to get stronger with more games under her belt and if thats the case then Halep really shouldn’t be taking her to three sets this time.

An early break for Halep would be a bonus to give us evens on Williams.

Update: Both struggled with their serves but Williams slightly stronger in the rallies.

Williams won 6-3, 6-4.

 

Ferrero v Monfils:

Ferrero leads the head to heads 2-0. They have never played on clay.

Ferrero has come back after another injury break of over 2 months. He lost to Andreev in Madrid but fared better in the first round in Rome when he beat Anderson in straight sets.

Monfils came back from  a break of a few weeks and beat an in form Kohlschreiber in 3 sets. Berdych made him look very ordinary though beating him 6-1, 6-1. Monfils beat Bogomolov Jr. in straights sets in the first round although Junior hasn’t been the same player since he decided he was Russian again.

I’m not sure how much longer Ferrero will keep putting his body through the rigours of the ATP tour but for now he is back with us. Obviously the former world number 1 is more comfortable on clay and if he can stay injury free for long enough to find some form he is still able to compete.

I’m not sure he will get his third win over Monfils today though. If Monfils is able to serve well then he ought to win this in 2 sets. When does Monfils ever do what he ought to?

Monfils starts at 1.54 on Betfair. If he is on top form then that seems a decent price but the scoreline against Berdych gives an indication of his current level. I will wait for a healthier price before backing Monfils. A shaky service game in the early part of the opening set should give us 1.70+.

Update: Monfils’d price drifted prematch to a more acceptable entry point. He raced into a 4-1 lead. I traded out and moved on. Just as well as he ended up losing the set!

I didn’t really follow the second set but I’m sure he was a berak up in that set and also lost it.

Ferrero won 7-5, 6-3.

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Rome 2012, Monday

14 May 2012, 9:17 am

A long list of games today with some exciting looking match-ups. Normal red clay this week!

 

Fognini v Baghdatis:

Their only previous meeting was a couple of weeks ago. Fognini won that in 2 tight sets.  Today Fognini is on home soil. He has lost his last 3 on clay although 2 were to Simon and the other to Paire which was after he reached the final the previous week and was exhausted.

Bagdhatis isn’t in the best form at the moment.  Since his loss to Foggy in Bucharest he has won 2 of his 4 matches. Those were both 3 setters to Dustin Brown and Kamke. If he was in form they would have been straight sets wins.

You would imagine that Fognini is more motivated as its in his home country but trying to figure this guy out is near impossible. At first glance he doesn’t have a good record in this event but losses have come to Tsonga, Djokovic and Roddick ( when Roddick was ranked 5). 2010 saw him lose in the first round to Ernests Gulbis which wasn’t a good loss. His recent form is pretty good though and surely he sees it as a great chance to make an impact in Rome.

Fognini starts at 1.71 . If he is in the right frame of mind then that is a decent price. Baghdatis has a poor record on clay and I have to favour the Italian here. I will back at the start with part stake and hope to add more at a higher price in the first few games.

 

 Isner v Kohlschreiber:

They have played just once before which was on a hard court in 2010. Isner won in 3 sets.

This should be very close. Isner’s serve we all know about but Kohlschreiber also possesses a superb serve. It just fails him occasionally. Isner lost his first match in a few weeks against Cilic. Cilic has been in great form and to lose in 2 tie break sets was a good sign for  Isner as he was bound to be rusty. The blue clay also wouldn’t have been good for giraffe-like Isner.

Back on the normal red clay he will be confident going into this tournament. He has proved himself to be an excellent clay court player in recent months.

Kohlschreiber hasn’t lost in the first round in Rome ( he lost in the second round for the last 3 years). I expect him to serve well and this could easily be a standard Isner match. Very few breaks. 1 set to be a tie break.  3 sets. Isner wins.

Isner starts at 1.67 which has shortened from around 1.72 in the last few minutes. Could be a decent match for backing serves at those prices. If I can get a price over evens on the American I will be taking it.

Update: More breaks than I expected but we did have a tie break. We did have 3 sets and Isner did win!

Isner didn’t show up in the first set. the market was so unprepared for how he played that when Kohlschreiber had his first break point the market hardly moved. People just expected the American to serve an ace. he was broken twice in that set. He went behind in the second set before coming back to take it in a tie break. In the third Kohlschreiber who had played superb tennis for a set and a half went into meltdown.

Isner won 2-6, 7-6, 6-2.

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Madrid Open Finals

13 May 2012, 10:54 am

Azarenka v S Williams:

Head to heads are 6-1 to Williams. She has won their last 4 meetings.

Having seen Williams batter Sharapova it would be easy to assume that she was going to stroll to the title this week. I think a lot of her aggression in that match was fueled by a deep dislike for Shara. Some of her shots, especially in the first set were packed with anger. In the semi she came up against Hradecka who has served superbly all week. Hradecka saved 4 break points in the first set and took it into a tie break which was also close but went to Williams. However she had used all her energy supplies and didn’t win a game in  the second set.

Azarenka has been a little below her best in recent weeks but still reached the final in Germany. She had even more problems than normal in that final and was easily beaten by Sharapova. This week she seems to have coped well with the dreaded blue clay. Her first 2 matches were closer than we may have expected and the first set against Li Na was poor but over all she hasn’t played badly. She will be motivated today to make up for her poor showing in her last final and also to prove that she is rightly ranked 1 in the world.

Azarenka will need to serve well today. Big serves are what troubled Williams against Hradecka. Aza also can’t really afford to be coming back from a set down against Williams. She needs to get her nose in front and stay there to subdue the American.

I’ll be starting with a lay of Williams. Lets see which bully comes out on top.

Update: Not sure how long Azarenka expects to be ranked number 1 when she can’t serve well for an entire match. The one shot that can be practiced alone. No need for a hitting partner.

Williams won 6-1, 6-3.

 

Federer v Berdych:

Head to heads are 10-4 to Federer. He has won both their previous matches on clay although they were in 2005 and 2006.

Federer ( I think) will take over the number 2 spot from Nadal if he wins here. If not he is very close. He played well within himself against Ferrer.

Berdych seems to like the new surface. He hasn’t lost a set all week and Del Potro, Verdasco and Monfils is an impressive list of victims.

Who wants this most? I would suggest Federer but as Raonic showed earlier in the week a big server can trouble him. Hopefully Berdych won’t be intimidated by facing Federer and will be able to make a great match out of it.

I feel Federer’s price of 1.35 feels way too low as I think we will see 3 sets. In all bar 2 of their 14 matches whoever won the opening set took the match.

I will look for a better price to back Federer. Laying him at the start is an option but I have a sneaky feeling that Berdych won’t show up in the first set. Lets hope I am wrong. Fed to win in 3.

Update: Berdych certainly showed up. Federer was broken in his very first service game. In fact he struggled with serve throughout the match. Berdych clung on to the break and even had further break points towards the end of the set.

In the second set if was Berdych who was broken early and even though Berdych broke back a few games later Federer broke at the end of the set to level the match.

In the third Federer broke serve to lead 5-3 and was serving for the match. However his problems on serve continued and Berdych broke back. At 5-6 Berdych was serving to stay in the match and went 0-40 down. He saved the 3 match points but couldn’t save a 4th.

Federer won 3-6, 7-5, 7-5.

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Madrid Open 2012, Friday

11 May 2012, 9:30 am

Berdych v Verdasco:

Berdych leads the head to heads 9-4.  He has won their last 3 matches. They are 2-2 on clay.

So, be honest. Did you expect Verdasco to beat Nadal yesterday? Yes? How about when he was 2-5 down in the third set?  A shame to hear that Nadal has threatened to boycott the tournament next year if they continue with the blue clay. Its the same surface for everyone. isn’t it a big part of the game to adapt to conditions? I bet Verdasco loves the stuff!

Verdasco’s reaction at the end of that match was understandable. Nadal had beaten him in all their previous 14 matches. On clay he had never even taken a set from Nadal. On top of that to do it in his home town, no doubt in front of more friends and family than normally get to see him play live. How much sleep do you think he got last night? How much mental energy will he have for today’s match?

This surface has proved to favour the big servers. When Berdych serves well there are few  better. Anderson and Monfils were both despatched in straight sets.

11 aces against Anderson with just 2 double faults. Surprisingly only 4 aces against Monfils with no doubles.

The one concern with Berdych is that he withdrew from Barcelona with  shoulder problem.

Its great to see Verdasco playing well again but he isn’t known as a mental giant at the best of times. I really feel that the Nadal win will have drained him significantly. Also in the second round he had another 3 setter with Falla which was exceptionally tight.

I don’t see anything here except a Berdych win. 1.39 seems a little low though but I’m sure we’ll see 1.60+ in the early exchanges.

Update: No higher price. Verdasco was more drained than I thought.

Berdych won 6-1, 6-2.

 

Federer v Ferrer:

Federer leads the head to heads 13-0.

A massive part of Ferrer’s game is his defense. Running down every ball to frustrate his opponent. Blue clay doesn’t make that any easier. Ferrer doesn’t have the biggest serve in the world and as we have seen this surface favours the big servers. Whilst Federer is a massive favourite anyway if he serves near his best this could be embarrassing for Ferrer today.

Raonic came close to upsetting Fed but even his superb serving couldn’t quite get the job done. The Canadian actually won more points than Federer in that match but as is so often the case Fed won the important ones.

I really think that 1.32 is bordering on being generous. Anything can happen in tennis  as we know but it will take a bad performance from Federer to allow another Spaniard into the semis.

Update: Ferrer limited Federer to a single break in each set but the result was never really in doubt. The break came late in the second set at 4-4 and Federer served out the match. Federer seemed to playing within himself and doing enough to get the job  done.

Federer won 6-4, 6-4.

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Madrid Opem 2012, Thursday

10 May 2012, 9:43 am

Simon v Tipsarevic:

Simon leads the head to heads 4-0. Their last 3 matches went to 3 sets and the other was settled in 2 tie breaks! Their most recent match was in Monte Carlo in April and was their only previous meeting on clay.

Tipsarevic had his first match on the blue clay yesterday. Whilst he served pretty well I expected him to deal with the Delbonis serve better than he did. They took a tie break each and in the third set Tipsarevic broke at the first attempt but that was the only break of the set.

Simon won the title in Bucharest at the end of April and reached the semi finals in Monte Carlo the week before. He seems to be over his poor run of form that he suffered in the South American clay events earlier in the year. This week he has beaten 2 in form players in Fognini and Garcia-Lopez.

Despite the fact that Tipsarevic is the top 10 player Simon is rightly favourite on Betfair at 1.54. If either player is likely to start slowly my money is on Simon. Their previous encounters have all been close so I want a better price before backing Simon. Tipsarevic has twice won the opening set although in the only clay court match he lost the first set 6-0!

I don’t recommend getting involved at the starting prices. I am looking for nearer evens at which point I will back Simon. There is no reason to think this won’t be another close match so we need  a good value entry point.

Update: The first 2 sets were extremely tight. In the first I felt that Simon was on top. He was holding serve easier than his opponent but couldn’t get the break through on return of serve. the set went into a tie break. It was Tipsarevic who was able to take advantage of a couple of poor points from Simon early in the tie break.

In the second set Tipsarevic seemed to be getting the upper hand as the set went on but when he served at 5-6 he was broken and we were going into a third set. Surprisingly the third was very one sided and Tipsarevic got his first win over the Frenchman.

Tipsarevic won 7-6, 5-7, 6-1.

 

Djokovic v Wawrinka:

Djokovic leads the head to heads 11-2. He has won their last 8 matches. Good luck Stan!

Wawrinka played a great match to beat Melzer in the last round. His trouble against the very top players though is that he gives the impression that he doesn’t rally believe he can win.

Djokovic had his first experience of the new blue clay. He had tweeted earlier in the week that it was very slippery. He was unhappy with the surface from the start and had to make adjustments to his play. The impact of the new surface was clear and it wasn’t until the third set that he started to dominate.

Djokovic starts at 1.26 . He isn’t as dominant as he was last year and is certainly capable of being broken as Gimeno Traver showed yesterday. I see it as very unlikely that even with the blue clay levelling the playing field to some degree that Wawrinka is able to win this. However i don’t think it will be a walk in the park for Djokovic and am hoping for 1.50 or better before jumping in.

Update: No entry for me. Djokovic was always one step ahead. No breaks in the first set and Djokovic took the tie break. Wawrinka was broken twice in the second set. He pulled one of those breaks back but Djokovic took the match.

Djokovic won 7-6, 6-4.

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Madrid Open 2012, Wednesday

9 May 2012, 8:47 am

Isner v Cilic:

They have played just once before which was at the Australian Open 2011. Cilic won 9-7 in the 5th set.

More players have said that the new blue clay is very slippery and is taking some getting used to. That seems strange as it’s the same clay that has been coloured blue! ( I believe it starts white ). However as we have seen from the live video lots of players are slipping on this surface. Nadal has said that it favours the big server. Today we have 2 of the biggest servers around but I think this match will come down to who returns best. Once the ball is in play who can keep their feet? I can see Isner resembling Bambi at times.

Isner hasn’t played since losing to Monaco in the final of the US Clay Court Championship. He has developed into an excellent player on the clay with recent wins over Tsonga, Simon and Federer. He’s not the sharpest tool in the box though and may take time to adjust to the new clay.

Cilic is in great form and served well last week ( apart from the final. Don’t know what happened there). He has also had a match on the blue clay where he breezed past Montanes in 2 easy sets. Having played that match I feel he has an edge over Isner as he knows what to expect in match play.

Not having played for 3 weeks means Isner will be well rested but is certainly short of competitive court time.

This is obviously going to be a serve dominated match with perhaps a single break settling each set. No one will be surprised to see a tie break and that is probably Isner’s best chance of taking the opening set assuming both men serve as we expect them to.

With Isner starting at 1.78 this should be a good match to back players on serve. I have to give a slight edge  to Cilic as there’s a chance Isner comes out rusty and could easily find himself having to come back from a set down.

Update: Very tight match with both sets going to tie break.

Cilic won 7-6, 7-6.

 

Azarenka v Ivanovic:

Ivanovic leads the head to heads 2-1 and has won their last 2 matches. However they haven’t played since August 2010.

Azarenka is having an excellent season as number 1 but doesn’t seem quite as impressive and imposing as the year goes on. Her recent loss to Sharapova in the final in Germany and her two matches in Madrid this week will give Ivanovic some hope that she can get a third win over her.

Ivanovic is also having a great season with her losses only coming to top players. Not a good sign!

Azarenka’s starting price of 1.42 reflects the head to heads and also Azarenka’s last few matches. That certainly is no price to be backing her today. If Azarenka has a bad match its usually because she served poorly. Her big returns of serve can trouble even the best players’ serves but if she can’t control her own it can develop into a battle.

Ivanovic is serving fairly well at the moment.  No double faults and 7 aces against Petrova. She did double fault 3 times in the first round but also served 5 aces.

Azarenka also served 7 aces in her last match but there were 8 double faults. Five more double faults in round 1 don’t paint a good picture of her serving this week.

I think we are going to see Azarenka broken early as Ivanovic will come out swinging. Her price may touch evens in the first 3 or 4 games and that has to worth a back.  Aza is a much better player than she was the last time these two met and I feel she will battle her way through. Ivanovic won’t be rolling over though and 3 sets is a real possibility.

Update: Azarenka was broken in the 4th game. She broke back 3 games later and broke again in Ivanovic’s next service game.

In the second set Ivanovic was broken twice. She pulled one of those breaks back. When Aza served for the match she faced 3 break points but held on to take the win.

Azarenka won 6-4, 6-4.

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