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25th July 2014

ATP Croatia Open, 16:30 – This is Cilic’s first tournament after his quarter final finish at Wimbledon where he took Djokovic to 5 sets. He had a straight forward win in his first match this week over Sijsling.

I have been waiting for about 2 weeks now for Rosol to run out of steam. In the early part of his last match I was convinced he wasn’t giving 100%  but maybe he was just trying to win without playing too hard. Maybe Riba was just too shit to take the gifts he was being handed.

There are no options for Rosol today. Go hard or go home ( well ok that’s 2 options).

Cilic was banned last year so missed this tournament but he won the title in the 2 previous years. Today is the day Rosol starts his few days rest and I doubt he will be too upset at that.

1.33 isn’t a great price. Maybe Rosol will come out swinging for a few games and give us a better price.

 

ATP Swiss Open, 16:30Verdasco had a set to play earlier today and was probably hoping to get the win as quickly as possible. It didn’t work out that way and Struff took him to a tie break. Verdasco now plays Troicki who has hit the ground running after his ban.

Playing 1 set already today shouldn’t be a big issue for Verdasco and could even help him a little. However if Struff was able to take him to a tie break you have to feel that Troicki can at least push the Verdasco price higher. I can see the opening set being a tight one.  This is a big test for Troicki but I won’t be at all surprised if he takes it.

An early lay on Verdasco below 1.40 is the target.

 

ATP Croatia Open, 18:00 – defending champion Robredo takes on Carreno Busta.

they have played twice before. Both were this year and both were on clay. Robredo won in straight sets each time.

Carreno Busta should put up a decent fight but I can see only one winner in this one ( famous last words ).

As usual the SP isn’t very tempting but anything over 1.65 looks good to back.

 

Atlanta Open, 21:00Isner starts as a 1.50 favourite against Matosevic.

Ginepri pushed Isner very close last night and took the opening set. Set 2 went to a tie break which was also close and Isner nicked the final set 7-5.

Matosevic is having the season of his life and I think he will also be able to give Isner some problems. It will be another serve dominated match and it only takes 1 poor service game to lose a set. Value has to be in laying isner and ideally below 1.30 in the early games (without a break of serve). The American isn’t a great receiver at the best of times so laying him when he has a break point is a decent option.

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Shark Tips emails

A few people have told me they didn’t get the email this morning although last night’s seems to have worked fine.

I have sent some test emails just now but my copies haven’t come through.

I am looking into the problem but this is a reminder that picks are posted on the Shark Tips page before being emailed so if you don’t get an email please check that page.

 

EDIT: all the tests just came through for me :-)

 

Paul

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24th July 2014

WTA Baku Cup, 13:00 – I thought Soler Espinosa may not be too interested in this tournament after her poor performance in the semi final last week. She had a tough week having to come back from a poor start each time. However in the first round she beat qualifier Kovinic in straight sets.

Svitolina has put in some very inconsistent results recently but I’d expect her to gain confidence now we are back on the hard courts.

Svitolina is defending champion and I have to favour her on hard courts. I think she starts too low though and 1.60 to 1.70 would be a more realistic price given the respective form of the players.

I will wait for a higher entry.

 

ATP Swiss Open, 14:00Troicki didn’t take long to get back into the swing of things. Having served a 12 month ban his first match  wasn’t an easy one on paper against  Thiem but he came through it in straight sets.

Golubev would appear to offer less of a challenge than Thiem but I am not sure we have seen enough from Troicki to have him as a 1.65 favourite. If I can get on him nearer evens it’s worth backing him but with reduced stakes.

 

ATP Croatia Open, 19:00Fognini lost in the final last year to Robredo having won the two previous tournaments. Does he care about defending points? He has his very own self destruct button that he has been frantically pressing this season and is only just in the top 20 now.

Montanes hasn’t been in the best form since his semi final in Nice although injury has been one of his problems and he retired from the French Open. In the first round this week he beat Zverev who must have been physically and mentally drained from his exploits last week.

Montanes leads the head to heads 3-2 although they haven’t played since 2011 and a lot’s happened since then.

Fognini starts at 1.46 but he can start slowly even when playing well. Montanes’ serve can keep him in the set so a lay of Fognini around 1.30 isn’t a bad place to start. Then it is all down to how seriously Fognini is playing. Obviously if he wants it then he wins.

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