ATP Ecuador Open, semi final: Lorenzi v Bellucci (18:00)

Lorenzi leads from their previous matches 2-1. The most recent was in February last season. Lorenzi won in 3 sets on a clay court. All their matches have been on clay. The last 2 went to 3 sets.

Lorenzi hit 25 aces against Tomic. That takes some doing on clay even if it is at altitude. That match will have taken a lot out of him.

Bellucci also had a tough 3 setter. He hit 15 aces but also 10 double faults. The double faults aren’t a huge surprise as he sometimes takes risks on his 2nd serve.

I think Lorenzi has given almost all he has this week and will be a step slower today. I still think there is a little value on him and that we see 3 sets.

Back Bellucci above 1.80 .


ATP Sofia Open, semi final: Klizan v Troicki (16:00)

Troicki leads the head to heads 4-1. They met twice last year with Troicki winning on clay in 3 sets and on a hard court in 2. Klizan’s win was on grass in 2013.

Klizan is one of several players who should not be in the semis. Rosol served for the match in their 2nd round match and was 30-0 but lost. I was surprised he beat Seppi yesterday though Seppi had a poor day.

Troicki hasn’t dropped a set. He served at a high level against Kohlschreiber hitting 15 aces and saving all 4 of the break points he faced.

I would prefer a higher price on Troicki. Anything over 1.60 looks value.

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