Here is yesterday’s Trading Spreadsheet. Just in case you haven’t signed up yet and need to see what you’re missing!
ATP Dubai Duty Free Championships, 13:00 – Djokovic v Federer
Head to heads are 19-19! (although their last match was a Djokovic win due to walkover). The 6 mon stats favour Federer on serve and Djokovic on return.
Djokovic looked to be steaming into the final when he won the 1st set 6-0 over Berdych. In the end he scraped through 6-4 in the 3rd. His 2nd serve was surprisingly poor winning just 45% of 2nd serve points. Federer’s 2nd serve was even worse despite an easy win over Coric. He won just 41% of 2nd serve points.
Djokovic has won 8 of his last 10 finals. Both losses were due to him withdrawing before the match! I have to go with him to win this one too. He just has an extra gear to use when needed and especially so in finals.
They played 5 times in 2014 and Federer took the opening set in the last 4. We have a good chance of getting a better price on Djokovic.
WTA Qatar Total Open, 15:00 – Safarova v Azarenka
Azarenka leads 6-0. Their last match was in 2011. Safarova hasn’t taken a set from her on hard courts.
The 6 month stats show Safaroma is stronger on serve and Azarent a stronger on return.
Safarova was just too strong for Suarez Navarro in the semi final. She also cruised through her quarter final win over Petkovic. She hasn’t won a final as underdog since Aug 2008.
Azarenka had to fight hard to beat Venus in 3 sets. Her 2nd serve was poor at 35% of points won and Safarova will be able to attack that as Venus did. Azarenka saved 10 of the 13 bp she faced. Azarenka’s 2nd serve points won have not been above 36% all week. She has won 3 of her 7 finals going back to 2013 although 3 of her 4 losses were to Serena!
Safarova is serving well enough to take this to 3 sets. Azarenka is mentally stronger in the big matches and should come out on top.
Azarenka starts around 1.57 but I think we will get a chance to back her higher in the opening few games.