Skip to content

Australian Open 2012 – Women’s Final

27 January 2012, 7:28 pm

Azarenka v Sharapova:

I hope they leave the roof open for this one. This will be the noisiest final we are likely to see. I wonder how long it will take for the Aussi crowd to start mimicking the grunts, groans and squeals…

Even though its a Grand Slam Final there is more at stake than “just” the title and the 2.3million USD. They will also reach the top of the world rankings.

 Head to heads are 3-3 although one of Sharapova’s “wins” was when Azarenka retired when she was a  set ahead. The two previous matches were both straight set wins for Azarenka.

Azarenka’s wins are always in straight sets and Sharapova’s always in 3 sets. In all but 1 match Azarenka has taken the first set.

Despite playing the crowd’s favourite,Clijsters Azarenka made a fast start to their semi final. Having taken the first set her level dropped and she lost the next set 1-6. When it looked like Kim was going to take the match Azarenka held it together as her opponent sprayed errors all over the court.  Only when she was serving for the match did she show signs of nerves but still managed to close out the game.

Sharapova is perhaps a little fortunate to be in the final. Kvitova had so maany break chances but wasted them. Kvitova served to stay in the match in the third set and her nerves took over.  Some of her shots barely reached the net.

Sharapova has served a little better than usual in this tournament and she has been very aggressive on return of serve. She has really been going for her opponents’ second serve.

I don’t expect Azarenka to be overcome with nerves and she will continue her record of taking the opening set and she will win he first grandslam final.

Don’t be surprised to see 3 sets and if we do it could be full of errors. Sharapova is one of the stronger players mentally but too many UE’s will hand it to her opponent.

Update: Azarenka started the match by being broken in the first game. Sharapova hel serve for a 2-0 lead. She would only actually win 1 more game in the entire match.

Azarenka is a worth winner and new world number 1.

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , , , , , , ,
6 Comments

Update on the punting tips service.

27 January 2012, 5:37 pm

The service started this month and the results overall have been disappointing. I monitor results in 3 different uses of the tips:

1- Using tradeout pice AND stoploss (this is the one used for the service)

2-Using tradeout price only

3 – Straight bet

 

For the first few days the results were ok but option 3 was showing significanntly better results. I then made a bad decision and started leaving out the tradeout prices. I used stoploss in some of them. This was the worst possible combination. My picks were too borderline and having them as straight bets was over ambitious. The result of this was a lot of near misses and stress!  The results weren’t helped by it being the  start of the season with players taking time to get into their stride.

From the  18th I made changes to how the tips were given and also a very subtle change to the selection process.

The results since then have been: 

Trade out and stoploss + 0.4 units or 1.8% ROI

Tradeout only              + 4.55 units or 21% ROI

Straight bet                 - 0.28 units or – 1.3% ROI

 

To avoid the stoploss being triggered by a loss of the first set and a bad start in the second I have placed the stoploss higher. However due to the nature of tennis markets they are often still matched and then the target tradeout price is reached which would have given us a profit. As the stoploss needs to be so high the benefits of using it are minimal. It will be used very sparingly from now on.

The subscribers for January are as promised getting February for free and I’ll publish the results at the end of the month.

 

 

Filed under Daily match picks.
Comment

Australian Open, week 2 – Second Mens Semi Final

26 January 2012, 7:44 pm

Djokovic v Murray:

Will this one compare to the first semi?

Head to heads are 6-4 to Djokovic. Technically Murray won their last match. He was leading by a set and 3-0 when Djokovic retired from the Final in Cincinnati. Prior to that match the last time they played on a hard court was the final of the Australian Open 2011 which Djokovic won.

The Australian Open has been Murray’s most successful grand slam. He has reached the final for the last 2 years losing to Federer and Djokovic. He lost both matches in straight sets.

So is he able to make it to a third consecutive final? Murray’s tennis talent isn’t in question. The problems have been between his ears. No top sportsman should be coached by their mum or even have their mum as part of their support team. That has brought about a Mummy’s boy mental atitude. At times you almost expected him to take out a plastic lunch box at the change of ends and unwrap sandwiches that are wrapped in foil and cut into small triangles. Maybe a Petit Filou yogurt to follow?

How many times have we seen him start a match well only for his mental weakness to throw away the chance of a victory? That is going to change. No maternal cotton wool in the Murray camp now. No “yes man” coach with no real pedigree at the highest level.  Have you ever watched a Davis Cup match and seen Murray and British team ”coach” John Lloyd at the change of ends? Lloyd was too scared to advise Murray and Murray gave the impression that he wasn’t interested in hearing anything that he had to say.

For the first time Murray has someone in his team who demands respect from him. Lendl was one of the greatest players I ever saw play. Always aggressive and competitive. He won’t care about upsetting Murray. For the first time in his career Murray has a coach with a better playing record than his own. If Lendl speaks, Murray will listen.

Djokovic has said that Lendl won’t make any short term difference. I don’t agree. There is only a subtle difference needed for Murray to move his game to the next level. If Lendl isn’t the right person to do it then it will be someone very much like him.

Neither player had the hardest route to the quarter final stage. Nishikori was potentially a tricky opponent but was dealt with very effectively. David Ferrer promised to be more of an obstacle to Djokovic. As expected he made the Number 1 fight very hard. The first 3 games of their match took 22 minutes. Two very tight sets including a second set tie break that Ferrer had a great chance of winning took their toll on the Serb’s body. He was seen to hold his hamstring and in the press conference after th match said that he had some sudden pain that didn’t last long. He also had a few problems with his breathing with a blocked nose making it difficult to get enough oxygen into his body.

Murray seems to be fit and will try to do what Ferrer almost managed to do and will work Djokovic hard in long rallies.

This will be a massive test of Murray’s Lendl-induced positive attitude. I believe we will see a different Murray to the one seen before in massive matches.  He has beaten Djokovic before. In fact he has won 4 of their last 6 matches if you include Novak’s retirement in their last one.

My head says that Djokovic will be too strong on one of the world’s biggest stages. I aren’t a fan of Murray but Murray Mk II? The Lendl factor is pulling on my heart strings. He was probably my favourite player of all time. Nothing mattered to him except winning and he didn’t really care what people thought of him. If he can pass even a fraction of that mind set to Murray and fuse it with Murray’s immense natural ability then its an exciting prospect.

No whining today from Murray. No grimaces, tantrums or smashing his knuckles on his strings and it might just be his day.

Update: What a match! At times the standard was poor and they were both struggling to hold serve. Murray created so may break points but only took a fraction of them.

Djokovic took the opening set and Murray came back well to take the second. The third set should have gone Murray’s way soner than it did as he was a break up but Djokovic took it into a tie break which Murray won.

The fourth set was very one sided and Djokovic took at 4-0 lead. At 1-5 Murray served a bizarre game which saw Djokovic hit gentle passing shots for winners. The passing shot that gave Djokovic the set wasn’t even past the Scot when Murray started the walk to his chair.

In the 5th it was Djokovic who won he first break and moved into a 5-2 lead. Murray pulled back to 5-5. Djokovic broke him back and served out the match.

Djokovic  won 6-3, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , , , , ,
13 Comments

Australian Open, week 2 – Men’s first Semi Final

25 January 2012, 6:57 pm

Last night was a bit of a waste of time as all 4 short priced favourites won in straight sets. Thankfully a loss on the Australia/India test match was offset against a very tidy green on the England/Pak test.

Tonight looks more promising.

Federer v Nadal:

While they are 2 and 3 in the world they won’t meet in finals which takes a slight edge off the encounter.

Both players have had experts writing them off over the last 12 months but it took an exceptional season from Djokovic to knock them down a place each. I don’t think anyone will ever be able to match the Serb’s 2011 season.

Federer opened at 1.70 which was the price I expected. Nadal leads their head to heads 19-9 and he has won 5 of their last 6 matches.

In all their matches in 2010 and 2011 ( 8 matches ) in all but 1 match the winner of the first set won the match.

On current form Federer has the edge for me. Some expected Del Potro to be able to trouble him but the Argentinian was handed a free tennis lesson. Karlovic’s serve was expected to take at least 1 tie break set but the big serving giant could only get to 1 tie break  which he lost as Fed won in straight sets. Maybe local boy Tomic could  spoil the party? Nope. Easy 3 sets win for Roger. When he concentrates and is motivated he is head and shoulders above the rest. Only Djokovic can stay with him in the mood and form that he has shown here.

Nadal has improved his serve consistency in this tournament. His forehand has looked good but his backhand is a potential weakness for Federer to exploit.   He has had a much easier route to the semi’s but you can only beat the player that they put on the other side of the net. It wasn’t until he came up against the impressive Berdych that he looked in trouble. Berdych has served exceptionally well and has proved very tough to break. He continued that form into the Nadal match and took the opening set. In the early part of the second set I really felt that Berdych could take a 2-0 lead but Nadal’s fighting spirit just doesn’t know when to quit. His self belief brought him through that set , taking it in a tie break. Berdych’s head dropped and Nadal was in control after that.

Fed’s price has shortened to 1.67 and doesn’t offer fantastic value against the world number 2. However I just can’t see him losing unless his own level drops this week. He is more motivated for the grand slams and a semi with Nadal and a potential final with either Djokovic or Murray will not see him lacking in intensity.

Federer to win in 4 sets. I would expect him to take the first set too.

Update: Wow! I was gutted that I could only watch the first 2 sets. Federer started the opening set playing like a tennis god. He was taking the ball so early and Nadal had no reply. Then Fed startd making errors and the ball was coming off the frame of his racquet. Nadal came back to take the set to a tie break which Federer won.

Nadal then started to get to grips with the match and whilst still playing well, Federer wasn’t able to maintain his intensity. He took the set with a double break.

This was some of the best tennis I have ever seen or expect to ever see. I missed the last 2 sets but Nadal won both.

Nadal won 6-7, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4.

 

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , , , , , , , ,
3 Comments

Australian Open 2012, week 2 – Tuesday night’s matches

24 January 2012, 5:42 pm

Last night was fine as all 4 matches were tradeable with decent prices. That isn’t the case tonight with 3 short priced favourites and Sharapova at 1.30 which is no price to back. She is no Federer!

 

I give Errani little chance against Kvitova.

Update: Errani fought to the end but Kvitova won in 2 sets.

Murray will need to have a real off day if Nishikori is going to hurt him. At 1.09 he’s a cheap lay but I expect the Japanese player to be totally outgunned.

Update: not much of a contest. Murray won in 3 sets.

Ferrer beat Djokovic at the World Tour Finals in November but Djokovic was carrying an injury. Having said that, the Spaniard has a good record against him. Djokovic leads the head to heads 7-5.

Ferrer was very impressive in his match with Gasquet and took out the Frenchman in straight sets.

Its another cheap lay but I don’t realistically expect Ferrer to win. There is a very good chance that Djokovic trades higher in the opening set.

Update: Didn’t follow this one but easy straight sets win for Djokovic.

Makarova was superb against Williams although that may be my bank talking as I layed Williams heavily! Serena was  well below her best but Makarova held her nerve when the pressure was on.

Sharapova has the grand slam pedigree and has been in this position before but Makarova has beaten Williams, Zvonareva and Kanepi in her last 3 matches ( and all in straight sets ). She does have a chance to win this if she isn’t over come by the occasion.

I think this match will make staying up worth while and should be close.

I’ll be laying Sharapova.

Update: Makarova started very nervously and Sharapova took full advantage. Makarova showed some great defense at times but her performance wasn’t up to the level she has shown earlier in the tournament. Good experience for her though.

Sharapova won in 2 sets.

Filed under Daily match picks.
1 Comment

Australian Open 2012, week 2 – Monday night’s matches

23 January 2012, 6:34 pm

Azarenka v Radwanska:

Quarter finals time. No easy matches from here for the players.

Both players over powered their opponents in the fourth round. Azarenka was a class above Benesova who has shown some excellent form.  Goerges has started 2012 reasonably well but was also blown away by Radwanska.

Azarenka leads the head to heads 6-3.  They have played 3 times in the last 12 months and each match went to 3 sets. Azarenka won 2 of them but in every match Radwanska took the first set.

Between them they have lost just 1 set at this tournament which was when Radwanska lost her opening set in round 1.

Along with Kvitova Azarenka was my pick for the title and I have seen nothing so far to make me doubt her. She does have a habit of having a period of play where she sprays balls all over the place but over the course of a full match she will hit more winners than  Radwanska.

As Radwanska has won the opening set in the 3 most recent matches we could lay Azarenka at the start. Another option is to wait to back Aza at the higher price.  Personally I will wait to back her after the first break and will add to that if/when she loses the set.

Update: Radwanska started slowly and seemed like she had problems with her leg that was heavily strapped. She went a break down but came back to win the set 7-0 in the tie break. Azarenka fought back in the second with a bagel and she took the third easily.

Azarenka won 6-7, 6-0, 6-2.

 

Berdych v Nadal:

Head to heads are 11-3 in Nadal’s favour. He has won their last ten matches and it is 2006 since Berdych beat him. Since that 2006 win the head to head set count is 22-1.

This match has an extra dimension brought about by the incident In Berdych’s last match against Nadal’s fellow countryman Almagro. Take a look at the initial incident and decide for yourself. berdych gets hit by the ball ( thats a tennis ball NOT a canonball) and collapses in a heap. If Almagro was able to hit the ball that accurately every time he would be world number 1. Berdych is a big guy and was running towards Almagro. Ofcourse he had him in his field of view. Almagro stopped to ask him if he was ok but must have been thinking WTF? Its a tennis ball.

At the end of the match he refuses to shake hands and is rightly booed by the crowd. berdych was clearly upset at the crowd’s reaction and it WILL continue into the Nadal match.

 

 

 

 Does nadal need more incentive to beat Berdych? Ofcourse not. However I expect this to adversely affect Berdych and his perfomance.

Nadal isn’t the dominant force that he was a few months ago but I think he takes this quite comfortably.

 

 

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , ,
2 Comments

Sunday night

22 January 2012, 10:00 pm

There won’t be a blog post tonight.

I appear to be in the middle of world war III. Never have kids. It just isnt worth it.

Filed under Daily match picks.
1 Comment

Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Saturday night’s matches

21 January 2012, 7:52 pm

The thing about Grand Slams is that in the first week there are too many matches and in the second week hardly any. We are already down to just 8 games if you ignore the doubles. I think you have to be an addict to use decent stakes on doubles!

 

Berdych v Almagro:

Berdych came through in straight sets against Anderson but needed 2 tie breaks. He wasted a lot of break chances in those sets and will need to take them today.

Almagro took out Wawrinka in straight sets with a superb display of aggressive tennis. He was a little distracted when Wawrinka looked almost ready to quit towards the end of the second set. Almagro took the set but gave Wawrinka a break in the third.  He served well throughout the match and his backhand was as solid as a rock.

Berdych leads the h2h 4-2 and Almagro has never beaten him away from clay courts. They have only actually played one match on hard courts which was their most recent match and Berdych won easily in straight sets.

I don’t realistically see an upset in this one as Berdych should have too big a game over 5 sets. However I think we may see a higher price in the opening set especially if Berdych wastes any chances he gets against the Almagro serve.

Berdych in 4 sets.

Update: Almagro played the better opening set and took it 6-4. berdych came back with 3 tie break sets to win 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6.

Berdych was booed off the court by the Australian crowd when he refused to shake Almagro’s hand after the match. He was upset at Almagro hitting the ball at him  during the match.

 

Tomic v Federer:

This is probably one of the matches that the Australian public want to see the most.

They have played once before which was last September in the Davis Cup. Fed won 3-1 on grass.

Federer is playing very controlled tennis at the moment. He has yet to drop a set and is right up there among the players with a good chance of lifting the trophy.

Tomic has improved his game over the last 12 months and his ranking has come down from over 200 to his current 37. If he is to have a chance against Federer he will have to go all out attack and even then it will have to be exceptional. In his favour is that he will have the loud Aussie crowd behind him and if he gets his nose in front they will go crazy. The downside is that this is a slam and Federer doesn’t often slip up before the semi’s.

I’ll wait for a higher price than the 1.12 currently on offer. As its over 5 sets Tomic will need to take the opening set to get a decent backing price but lets face it we have seen lesser players than Tomic take the first set, perhaps on a tie  break.

I think 4 sets is the best Tomic can hope  for.

Update: Federer handed the young Aussie a tennis lesson.

Fed won 6-4, 6-2, 6-2.

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged ,
2 Comments

Australian Open, week 1 – Friday night’s matches

20 January 2012, 6:21 pm

Tipsarevic v Gasquet:

Can’t wait for this one!  Two of my favourite players go head to head. Previous matches both went to the Frenchman but they were years ago and virtually irrelevant. Tipsarevic is now world number 9 and he has developed into one of the game’s toughest opponents.

Gasquet is one of the most talented players on tour with a natural flair for creative shotmaking. His best tennis is unfortunately played on the practice courts although he is capable of transferring that occasionally to the main stage. He has one of the best one handed backhands around and his touch around the net is usually excellent. He does have a tendency to crumble under sustained pressure though as was seen recently in his defeat to  Denis Istomin. He will be under real pressure throughout this match.

Tipsarevic has won both his matches this week in 4 sets with his opponent taking the opening set.  A slow start against Gasquet is likely to result in another first set loss.  However in this match the quality of his opponent can’t be underestimated as perhaps Duckworth and Tursunov were in previous rounds.

Tipsarevic’s serve could be the key here. It has been working well so far and he hit a massive 28 aces against Tursunov. It almost brought him victory in the Chennai Final against Raonic where he lost 1-2 with all sets being tie breaks.

I am going for Tipsarevic in 4 or 5 sets.

Update: What an anti-climax. This was Gasquet’s day and Tipsarevic has no reply. The Frenchman brought his A game to the court and Tipsarevic couldn’t handle it. He seemed to be sulking in the third set as nothing was working for him.

Gasquet won 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.

 

Lisicki v Kuznetsova:

Lisicki starts as favourite in this one.  She has had just 1 loss from 5 matches in 2012 which was when she retired against Kerber. Her style of play is pretty much shit or bust. She doesn’t really have a finesse game. Having said that when her shots are landing in the court she can be devastating.

Kuznetsova showed some excellent  form earlier in the month with 6 wins and 2 loses. Like Lisicki, one of her losses was when she retired.  Her form this week hasn’t been exceptional but she has done enough to get the job done.

This is one to trade in play as we need to know whether Lisicki’s shots are hitting the lines. If they do then Kuznetsova will really struggle to cope with her power. If the shots aren’t finding their targets then the match is much more even.

Lisicki won the only previous meeting though that was on her favoured grass.

Having watched Lisicki steam roller Peer for the loss of just 3 games I have to assume that her form will continue and she is my pick to win, perhaps in 3 sets.

Update: Both struggled with serve in the opening set and there were more breaks than holds. Lisicki didn’t manage a single hold in that set. Things improved a little in the second set and lisiscki levelled the match at 1-1.

Lisiscki took the third to win 2-6, 6-4, 6-2.

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , , , , , , , ,
Comment

Australian Open 2012, week 1 – Thursday night’s matches

19 January 2012, 7:44 pm

Oprandi v Goerges:

Oprandi was ecstatic after her defeat of Schiavone in the last round.  Rightly so as to beat the world number 11 in a Grand Slam is a massive achievement. In reality though Schiavone played a really awful match.

Goerges has played pretty solidly so far. She has yet to lose a set and had the bonus of a short match against Daniilido who retired after a couple of games of the second set.

Oprandi plays consistent tennis and waits for the opponent to make the errors. That worked a treat against Schiavone  but Goerges’ ground strokes have been impressive.

I just don’t see Oprandi having the weapons to take the match away from the German and the result will depend on Goerges’ form. I expect 2 straight sets to Goerges.

Update: Goerges made a terrible start to the match and was making too many errors. oprandi took the first set. In the second both players called for the medic but Oprandi looked like she was in more trouble than Goerges. Goerges came back to win the  second set and then ran away with the third.

Goerges won 3-6, 6-3, 6-1.

 

Wawrinka v Almagro:

World number 10 Almagro finds himself as massive underdog on the exchanges with his opponent starting at 1.41 on Betfair and 1.38 on Betdaq. Those prices just feel too short despite Wawrinka leading the head to heads 4-1.  Almagro’s only win came at Aukland 2007 on a hard court.

With the exception of their most recent match ( Aug 2010 ) which ended in a straight sets win for Wawrinka all their matches have gone the distance. Wawrinka has taken the first set in 4 of the 5 matches.

Almagro has won just 6 from 27 matches on hard courts when he starts as underdog. He came back from 1-2 down against Dimitrov and from a set down against Kubot. For large sections of both matches Almagro played superbly but he can get complacent and go for big winners instead of ensuring his opponent has to play a shot.

Wawrinka was impressive against Baghdatis but while he usually performs well at the Grand Slams its often an underdog who takes him out.

With both these players anything can happen. Who expected Go Soeda to beat Wawrinka?  I certainly can’t be backing Wawrinka at 1.40 here and have a sneaky gut feeling feeling that it will be a very tight match and Almagro has a chance to scrape through.

I want to see how the match starts before getting involved but will be looking for signs of Almagro having the upper hand.

Update: Match of the week! Almagro won the first break but was broken back. he broke again but again was broken back and it went into a tie break. Almagro took the set.

In the second  Almagro won an early break. Towards the end of the set Wawrinka called for the medic and looked like there was a good chance he would quit. Almagro took the second set.

Wawrinka continued and won a break in the third set but Almagro came back and took the set and the match.

Almagro won 7-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Filed under Daily match picks. Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
1 Comment
« Older Entries