MATCH PREVIEWS AND TRADING ADVICE ON EVERY MATCH

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1st April 2015

I did it again. Forgot my Godmother’s birthday. How do you forget someone’s birthday when it’s April 1st??

 

 

ATP Miami Open, 20:00 – Thiem v Murray

Murray leads the head to heads 1-0. That was in 2014 on an indoor hard court and went to  3 sets.

Thiem’s last 3 matches were against in form players. Sock, Lopez and Mannarino. In his first match his 2nd serve was letting him down but since then he has served at a very high level.

Murray’s serve has also been pretty good although against Anderson his 2nd serve dropped below 50% of points won. However he had a respectable sfirt serve percentage of 60% and won 84% of points on the first serve.

I expect the sets to be close. Lay Murray for a trade. He wins in 2 close sets or perhaps another 3 setter.

 

 

ATP Miami Open, 02:00 – Berdych v Monaco

Berdych leads the head to heads 7-0. The most recent was in 2012 on clay clay and went to 5 sets.

Berdych has lost a few sets this season that you wouldn’t really expect him to. .

On outdoor hard courts they have played 6 sets. Berdych lead 5-1. Monaco’s set was back in 2008.

Monaco had a good straight sets win over a tired Verdasco in the last round. Him winning a set isn’t out of the question but Berdych wins this. Wait for an early Monaco break before backing Berdych.

 

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31st March 2015

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Take a look at yesterday’s spreadsheet  30mar2015rt

 

 

ATP Miami Open, 20:00 – Simon v Ferrer

Ferrer leads the head to heads 6-2. Their most recent meeting was in the  2015 Australian Open, Ferrer won in 4 sets. Simon won at the 2014 US Open  in 4 sets. Those were their only outdoor hard court meetings.ferrer5

The season’s stats favour Ferrer. He has lost just 2 matches this year ( to Tomic and Nishikori). the slightly slower courts should help him even more with his defensive skills.

Simon has lost just 1 of his last 10 ATP matches ( to Nadal). Simon has served well so far and has a great chance of taking a set. I have to go with Ferrer for the win though. He has been super consistent this year. It should  be a decent match with plenty of long rallies as each likes to wait for their opponent to make errors.

Wait for an early Simon break before backing Ferrer. Ferrer starts around 1.41

 

 

 

ATP Miami Open, 22:00 – Nishikori v Goffin

Nishikori is firmly established as a top 10 player. He has had an excellent season so far.

Goffin has made a slow start to 2015 which wasn’t helped by injury but he seems fit now and is playing at the sort of level we came to expect from him last year. I thought he would struggle a little more than he did against Janowicz in the last round but he controlled the match and won in straight sets. His second serve could have been better but Janowicz’ was even worse. Goffin saved 3 of the 5 break points he faced.

nish5Nishikori hasn’t dropped more than 2 games in a set so far. He was helped in the last round by Troicki not being 100% fit but he played a very strong, professional match.

Goffin should give him more of a test and I think we will see Nishikori trade higher. I will lay Nishikori below 1.20 for a trade but I expect him to be too strong for Goffin.

 

 

 

WTA Miami Open, 00:30 – Suarez Navarro v V Williams

Head to heads are  2-2. Their most recent meeting was in 2014 on a  hard court and  Venus won in 3 sets.. Their only other meeting on a hard court was in 2009. Suarez Navarro won in 3.

The season stats favour Venus. She also has a better Win/Loss record. They are very closely matched and even though Venus is in her home town, because they are so hard to separate the value is on Suarez Navarro.Venus Williams

Suarez Navarro fought back well against  Radwanska in the last round and won the second set  6-0. She had a double break lead in the 3rd set and was broken the first time she served for the match but at the second attempt she held to 15.

Venus hasn’t dropped a set yet but needed a tiebreak in the second set in the last 2 rounds. Against Stosur she threw away a 5-2 lead in set 2 and against Wozniacki she broke Woz twice when the Dane served for the set before playing a superb tiebreak.

I have to favour Venus for the win but I think we see 3 sets. Back Venus when she is a break behind. She starts around 1.68 .

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30th March 2015

ATP Miami Open, 16:00 – Goffin v Janowicz

Head to heads are 1-1. The most recent was this season on an indoor hard court and  Goffin won in 2 sets. Janowicz won on a hard court last year.

Goffin has struggled with his form this season but we saw an improvement in his last match. He lost just 1 point on his first serve although his first serve percentage was low at 45%. He didn’t face a single break point.

Janowicz  came through a 3 setter with Bautista Agut as underdog in the last round. It was a close match with each player breaking 3 times.

This should also be a close match and is a likely 3 setter. If Goffin’s serve remains as strong as yesterday then he is favourite. He looked injury free in the last round so perhaps we can expect a consistently higher level from now.

Back Goffin if he goes a break behind. He starts around 1.60 .

 

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WTA Miami Open, 19:00 – Pliskova v Gavrilova

Pliskova hasn’t won her matches as easily as she really should have.I just get the feeling she is due a poor match.

Gavrilova has beaten Sharapova and Nara so far. She has been playing above her usual levels. Her second serve should give Pliskova some chances.

Pliskova will need to be focused and Gavrilova will keep the sets close. Wait for a higher entry price on Pliskova. Ideally an early break for Gavroliva will give us our price. Pliskova starts around 1.44 .

 

 

ATP Miami Open, 22:00 – Simon v Falla

Head to heads are  2-2. Simon won both their outdoor hard court matches but Falla won their most recent meeting on an indoor hard court in 2013.

Simon has been more consistent this year and leads the season stats. He served well in the last round but was taken to 3 sets by Kukushkin. He won the 3rd set 6-0.

Falla has come through the qualifying rounds and beat Karlovic in 2 sets in the last round. That wasn’t really unexpected as these slower courts don’t suit Karlovic.

Simon starts around 1.26 and It is worth laying him as his price is too low. Falla has been serving well and can easily nick at least a set.

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