19th Sep 2014

ATP Moselle (Metz), 13:00 – Kohlschreiber v Struff

Third seed Kohlschreiber had a comfortable first match against clay courter Lorenzi.

He won his only previous meeting with Struff in July this year on the clay in Stuttgart.

Struff has had to work harder for his place in the quarter finals. He lost the opening set in both his matches and lost it in a tie break. However Neither Lajovic or Chardy could hold on to the lead.

Both players have big serves but Kohlschreiber is the better returner. I won’t be surprised if Struff can nick a set in a tie break but this one is Kohlschreiber’s to lose.

I don’t like the 1.40 on Kohlschreiber though. We should get 1.60 without him being broken in the first set and anything above that is value for me. He has had some success at this event in the past and has a good chance  this week if he can hold his game together.

 

 

ATP Moselle (Metz), 15:00 – Tsonga v Goffin

They have played twice with Tsonga winning in straight sets both times on grass.

Goffin has improved his game since although clay is his strongest surface. His confidence is sky high which makes shot choice and execution both easier and faster.

Tsonga will need to serve well. If he doesn’t then Goffin will cause him some problems.

Tsonga did serve very well against Muller but the man from Luxembourg isn’t known for his returning skills.

Goffin served well over all against Kamke but his second serve could have been better. You would expect any weak second serves to be battered by Tsonga.

Tsonga starts at 1.49 but I think we will see that trade higher. 3 sets wouldn’t surprise me a great deal but i am going with Tsonga to scrape through in close sets.

 

 

ATP Moselle (Metz), 17:00 – Janowicz v Monfils

Two more big servers in this one although they have never met.

Monfils has played just one match and had a tight opening set with  Przysiezny but the second set was one way traffic. He is taking his tennis much more seriously and must feel he has a chance of taking the title.

Janowicz had done well for Shark Tips subscribers this week with wins over Mannariono and Nieminen. He has faced very few break points with just 4 in his first match and 3 in his last one with Nieminen. He has been broken twice.

Monfils faced 3 break points against Przysiezny and was broken once.

Clearly this will be a serve dominated match. Monfils is the better returner and that will be the difference today. With the sets expected to be so close though Monfils’ price of 1.42 doesn’t offer much value for backers. If Janowicz could get an early break while Monfils is cold I will back the Frenchman.

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18th Sep 2014

WTA Korea Open, 04:00 – Rybarikova v Wickmayer

Wickmayer leads the head to heads 3-1. She has won their last 3 meetings. Their most recent was in Auckland last season.

Rybarikova’s stats for the last 3 months are much stronger. She beat Schiavone in the last round. It was a very solid performance although her first serve percentage could have been a little better. She only gave Schiavone 3 break point chances and saved 1 of them.

Wickmayer, as always, played an up and down match in the first round. Minella took the opening set easily before Wickmayer took the next two tight sets. She hit  10 double faults and gave 16 break points although she saved 13 of them. A stronger opponent won’t waste so many.

Rybarikova starts at 1.53 but I will wait for 1.70 or better before backing her

 

 

WTA Korea Open, 06:00 – Kirilenko v Koukalova

They have met 7 times and Kirilenko leads 4-3. Their last meeting was in May last season on clay and Koukalova retired early in the second set.

Kirilenko has had some injury issues this season. I wasn’t sure she was ready to beat Vekic in the last round. Vekic looked to be in control but Kirilenko fought back.

Koukalova had a rollercoaster  match with Bertens. She won the first set 6-0 but Bertens leveled the match. The third set was very close.

Koukalova has a good record on hard courts. beating Vekic is one things but this is going to be a tougher match for Kirilenko. Both players usually have matches with plenty of price swings and I don’t expect this one to be any different.

I am giving a slight edge to Koukalova but hope to be greened up well before the end of the match.

 

 

ATP Moselles, 11:00 – Kamke v Goffin

Obviously Goffin has been in superb and consistent form in recent months but if Kamke plays as aggressively as he can I don’t think Goffin will have it all his own way.

Kamke did beat him earlier this year on grass but that was before Goffin’s spike in form.

Goffin’s indoor experience is limited compared to his opponents and 1.29 looks too low. I won’t be backing him at that price and will lay if he drops below 1.20 . I do expect Goffin to take it but Kamke has surprised us a few times this season and he could keep it close.

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17th Sep 2014

WTA Tokyo, 09:00 – Ivanovic v Azarenka

Azarenka’s ranking has dropped to 25th this season as she has struggled with injury and lack of confidence. She lost the opening set to Granny Krumm in the last round and it then became clear that Krumm was injured and Azarenka was able to take the next 2 sets comfortably.

Ivanovic has had a good season but hasn’t played since her poor performance against Pliskova at the US Open.

Azarenka leads the head to heads 5-2 and has won their last 4 but this must be an excellent opportunity for Ivanovic to get a rare win over her.

Azarenka hasn’t been completely useless this season and reached the quarter finals of the US Open. Ivanovic starts at 1.75 which I can understand but I want to see how they start before committing money to it.

If Ivanovic can avoid a poor performance from the service line she will take this close but I would prefer a price above evens before entering. Azarenka’s fierce competitive streak could inspire her to lift her game for this one though so be careful.

 

 

WTA Tokyo, 11:00 – Kerber v Svitolina

Kerber is playing her first match since she lost to Bencic in the third round of the US Open. She has had a solid season so far but her losses have tended to come against big hitters.

Svitolina was impressive in her last match. She beat Zahlavova Strycova in straight sets and was timing the ball extremely well although did have problems closing out games.

Kerber reached the final last year so will be giving everything today. She is well rested but may take a game or two to get into the swing of things.

Svitolina lost in the second round last season.

Kerber starts at 1.47 and I think we have a strong chance of seeing her trade higher early in the match if Svitolina can keep hitting the ball as she did in the first round. Once Kerber gets her game going though she should be too strong over all.

 

 

ATP Moselles (Metz), 19:00 – Mathieu v Rosol

They have only played once before which was in 2012 on clay. Rosol won comfortably in straight sets.

Mathieu starts as slight market favourite at 1.86. He won his first round match in two tie breaks against Becker. He saved all 8 of the break points he faced.

Rosol won the title in Winston Salem in August. That left him fatigued going into the US Open and he crashed out in the first round to 204th ranked Coric without winning a set. He played Davis Cup against France at the weekend and was beaten on clay by Monfils and Tsonga. There was no shame in those two defeats but he needs to get back to winning ways. This won’t be an easy match to do so.

Mathieu will obviously have the crowd with him and I think he will make this really tough for Rosol. He did get 7 break points against Becker although wasn’t able to take any of them. Rosol may well get frustrated if he isn’t able to get any joy on return of serve.

I would prefer to back him above evens but I give an edge to Mathieu.

 

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