This could be a cracker!
Federer leads their previous meetings 20-3. Wawrinka’s wins were all on clay.
Stats on hard courts this year strongly favour Federer. Their most recent match was at the Australian Open in January. Federer won in 5 sets in the semi final.
We have some value on Wawrinka at the start to take a set. Their last match was so tight
and has usually managed to win a set in their hard court matches. He won the semi final in straight sets but in the previous two rounds he needed a 3rd set tie break to get the win.
It’s hard to go against Federer on hard courts this year. He has faced just 1 break point in the whole tournament and not broken. I can see Wawrinka taking a tie break set and Federer winning in 3.
Back Federer if he loses set 1. He starts around 1.50.