Smith 2.92, Youzhny 1.51
Youzhny has won both their previous matches. They last met at the US Open in 2015. He won in 4 sets on hard court. Both matches were on hard courts.
Smith’s recent form has been stronger. He won 7 of his last 10. He has won 62% of his matches won this year. A lot of his recent wins have been in qualifying rounds. Indoors in 2017 his results are much stronger with 75% of matches won.
Youz has won 4 of his last 10 matches and 41% of matches this year. He has not played since the US Open where he lost to Federer in the second round in 5 sets. He has really struggled to find consistency this season. The crowd will be right behind him. He has a decent record at this tournament over the years and reached the quarter finals last year
Value on Smith to take at least a set. Lay Youz below 1.40 and reduce liability if he then gets broken or loses the set. We have a good chance of 3 sets.
Update: Youzhny won in 2 tight sets, 7-6, 6-4