18th Feb 2014

Lots of matches today. You can trade from 10am until 2am and beyond if you wanted to. I wouldn’t recommend it though 🙂

 

I think Halep was exaggerating her injury last week. It certainly didn’t prevent her taking the title in  Doha.

She is back on court today against Cornet. Halep is a bit like a Duracell bunny but even they run out eventually. I’m not sure Cornet is going to give her too many problems this morning though. Their last match was in October and saw Halep win 6-4, 6-4 . I think we are likely to see a higher price than the 1.23 SP so I will wait. That way we also get to see if Halep looks interested but I expect that she will be.

Update: Halep was suffering after playing a lot of tennis and she retired early in the second set.

Cornet won 6-1, 1-1(ret)

 

Sam Stosur had a poor loss last week to Cepelova. Her season was going reasonably well to say a fair amount of it was Down Under where she seems to struggle.

Today’s opponent is German Annika Beck who reached the 3rd round in Doha last week where she lost to Halep in straight sets.

Predicted holds come out even at 71% which I find a little strange given that Beck in the last 3 months has only held serve a fraction over 50%. One factor that would raise her predicted hold is that Stosur’s success against her opponent’s first serve hasn’t been great at all.

Stosur has a new coach so I am sure they have been tweaking areas of her game that they weren’t happy with. I have to go with Stosur for the win but her almost standard start of going a break behind would be perfect to give a healthier entry price.

Update: Stosur’s coach might want to tweak her head as this is still the weakest area of her game.

Stosur was cruising having taken the opening set easily but then imploded.

Beck won 1-6, 6-1, 6-4.

 

Leo Mayer has made an excellent start to 2014 and reached the final in Chile earlier this month. He is close to his career best ranking of 51 that he achieved almost 4 years ago.

Ramos‘ season had got off to a slower start but last week he beat Monaco in Argentina and eventually fell to David Ferrer in the quarter final. He only won 3 games in that match.

Mayer is the form player of this match up and I will go with him today. His serve is a great asset and he has held over 80% of the time this season. I will wait for a price nearer evens. He starts at 1.65 .

Update: Ramos won 6-2, 6-0. Unbelievably bad performance from Mayer.

 

Kerber put in a disappointing performance in the final in Doha having played some excellent tennis earlier in the week. She just can’t handle the pressure of finals. Today’s opponent Ivanovic was actually the player she beat in the final in Linz last season for her only success in her last 7 finals.

They played 4 times last season. Kerber won the last two on hard courts and Ivanovic won both their clay court matches.

Kerber isn’t a player who usually loses her next match after going deep in the previous week’s event. She had played well until the final so I am sticking with her today.

Ivanovic has also played well so far this season and reached the quarter finals in Melbourne. However she lost in the second round in Doha to Zakopalova as a 1.20 favourite.

Kerber starts at 1.89. I will try to get on above evens.

Update: Ivanovic won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6.

 

Baghdatis is hard to read at the moment. We know he has the ability but his mind seems to be elsewhere. Maybe sales at the family kebab shop aren’t doing so well.

Jiri Vesely reached the semi finals of the Heilbronn Challenger. He has shown more form than Baggy this season.

I think Baghdatis will get off to a decent start but won’t be able to hang on to it so I will wait for him to go a break ahead before laying him. Both have been poor on return of serve so it will probably come down to errors from the service line to decide the winner.

Update: Not a single blog  match went the way I expected!

Baghdatis won 3-6, 6-2, 6-1.

 

 

 

    Trading Guide