18th May 2014

We have a few first round matches today. In Dusseldorf Karlovic takes on Kamke. Karlovic had a rare win on clay last week and held Dimitrov to two very tight sets.

Kamke has had two recent matches on clay and lost them both. One of them was to Carreno Busta who was Karlovic’s victim in Rome.

At 1.80 Karlovic looks decent value.

 

WTA Rome, 12:30 – Women’s Final

Williams v Errani

Williams has won all 6 of their previous meetings with Errani winning just 1 set. No one is giving the Italian much hope of taking the title and I would have to agree. However No one expected her to beat Li Na and I was thinking Jankovic would walk over her in the semi final.

Errani’s new service motion seems to be getting the job done but God knows how. It must be the weakest serve among the top players. As Williams is the biggest returner on the tour it is hard to imagine anything happening other than the Errani serve getting battered.

Williams isn’t guaranteed to hold her own serve and she can switch off at times but I’d expect her to want to get the job done quickly.

 

ATP Rome, 15:00 – Men’s Final

Nadal takes on Djokovic.

Nadal has needed 3 sets in every match until the semi final. His game has been fine tuned and he is as prepared for this match as he could be. Dimitrov has taken a set from him in all 4 of their previous matches yet last night he managed just 4 games.

Djokovic has been pushed hard in his last 3 matches with each one going the distance. His wrist will have taken a pounding so far and this match won’t help at all. He has also said that it doesn’t feel right playing tennis with all the flooding in Serbia so that may distract him a little in the preparation for this match.

Djokovic has won their last meetings but they were all on hard courts.

Nadal has won 14 in a row at the Rome Masters. In the last 3 seasons he leads 4-1 on clay.

In the last 3 seasons they have met 11 times. On just 2 occasions the market makers got this one wrong. (1 to each player).

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