The main draw of the women’s event started yesterday and today we have the 1st round mens matches too. Plenty of tennis and its all in the evening so ideal if you fancy trading a few matches after work. (Unless of course you work evenings in which case you’re going to miss it).
17:00 – Ormaechea v Piter
Ormaechea starts as a 1.67 favourite. She is more at home on clay. Her 3 month stats are stronger in every category and also when comparing performance against common opponents.
Piter won’t make it easy for her though. She has won through the two qualifying rounds beating Krajicek who had knocked her out at the same stage in Indian Wells.
I think Piter will make the better start having played a couple of matches on these courts already but will back Ormaechea at a higher price
19:30 – McHale v Zheng
Zheng reached the 3rd round at the Australian Open but then didn’t play until Indian Wells. She put up a decent fight against Li Na ( at least in the second set ).
McHale has made a good start to the season. She reached the final in Acapulco where she lost to Cibulkova 4-6 in the third set. She went out of Indian Wells to Dellacqua.
At 1.57 I think McHale is too low. She potentially has the game to give Zheng some real problems today and is rightly the favourite but Zheng’s consistency will mean McHale has to be playing her best tennis. Obviously the home crowd will be right behind the American but I want at least 1.80 before i think of backing her.
21:00 – Mathieu v Karlovic
Mathieu has won both their hard court matches. However the most recent was in 2009 and the other was way back in 2001.
The Frenchman came through two qualifying matches but needed 3 sets in each of them. He started those matches as quite a strong market favourite.
His form this season has been a mixed bag. Wins over Dodig and Brands in Rotterdam are balanced out by failing to get out of the qualification rounds in Melbourne due to a loss to Jimmy Wang.
Karlovic has made a good start to 2014. He has been more consistent than we have become used to seeing him play and has been serving bombs. Last season it was almost a certainty that he would be broken in his opening service game though he was struggling with injury and illness.
Matches like these where not many breaks are expected are tough to trade. Pick a player and wait for a value entry on them. I am going with Karlovic despite his poor record in Miami.