19th Sep 2014

ATP Moselle (Metz), 13:00 – Kohlschreiber v Struff

Third seed Kohlschreiber had a comfortable first match against clay courter Lorenzi.

He won his only previous meeting with Struff in July this year on the clay in Stuttgart.

Struff has had to work harder for his place in the quarter finals. He lost the opening set in both his matches and lost it in a tie break. However Neither Lajovic or Chardy could hold on to the lead.

Both players have big serves but Kohlschreiber is the better returner. I won’t be surprised if Struff can nick a set in a tie break but this one is Kohlschreiber’s to lose.

I don’t like the 1.40 on Kohlschreiber though. We should get 1.60 without him being broken in the first set and anything above that is value for me. He has had some success at this event in the past and has a good chance  this week if he can hold his game together.

 

 

ATP Moselle (Metz), 15:00 – Tsonga v Goffin

They have played twice with Tsonga winning in straight sets both times on grass.

Goffin has improved his game since although clay is his strongest surface. His confidence is sky high which makes shot choice and execution both easier and faster.

Tsonga will need to serve well. If he doesn’t then Goffin will cause him some problems.

Tsonga did serve very well against Muller but the man from Luxembourg isn’t known for his returning skills.

Goffin served well over all against Kamke but his second serve could have been better. You would expect any weak second serves to be battered by Tsonga.

Tsonga starts at 1.49 but I think we will see that trade higher. 3 sets wouldn’t surprise me a great deal but i am going with Tsonga to scrape through in close sets.

 

 

ATP Moselle (Metz), 17:00 – Janowicz v Monfils

Two more big servers in this one although they have never met.

Monfils has played just one match and had a tight opening set with  Przysiezny but the second set was one way traffic. He is taking his tennis much more seriously and must feel he has a chance of taking the title.

Janowicz had done well for Shark Tips subscribers this week with wins over Mannariono and Nieminen. He has faced very few break points with just 4 in his first match and 3 in his last one with Nieminen. He has been broken twice.

Monfils faced 3 break points against Przysiezny and was broken once.

Clearly this will be a serve dominated match. Monfils is the better returner and that will be the difference today. With the sets expected to be so close though Monfils’ price of 1.42 doesn’t offer much value for backers. If Janowicz could get an early break while Monfils is cold I will back the Frenchman.

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