20th August 2014

ATP Winston Salem, 17:00 – Janowicz v Roger Vasselin

52nd ranked player against the 51st. Janowicz has won both their previous matches including their only recent one. That was in February on an indoor hard court in France and Janowicz won in straight sets.

Janowicz didn’t have an easy match in the last round.  The opening set went pretty much all his way. After that Sousa was the stronger player  and Janowicz’ serve fell apart. Sousa took the second set and went an early break up in the third. Janowicz’ ground strokes got him back into the match and he won it in a tie break.

Roger Vasselin has a very tight match in the last round. he and Nedovyesov shared the first two sets in tie breaks and Roger Vasselin took the decider 6-4.

Janowicz starts at 1.68 . When Roger Vasselin serves well he is very hard to break. Their stats over the last 3 months are very similar. Based on their matches in the last round I feel Roger Vasselin has the edge.

I will be laying Janowicz if he goes an early break ahead although if Roger Vasselin serves well he won’t get many chances. A tie break in the first set seems likely. If it does go to a tie break and Janowicz takes it I will be laying him.

 

 

ATP Winston Salem, 20:00 – Garcia Lopez v Young

They have played twice before but only one of those was recent. Garcia Lopez won in 5 sets at the French Open in May. Their other meeting was in 2011 on an indoor hard court and Young won in 3 sets.

So both their previous matches have gone to a deciding set.

Garcia Lopez has had some success this season on the clay. Since his quarter final in Stuttgart he lost his next 4 matches. That brings us to this week. He lost the opening set to Dustin Brown but then took the next two sets comfortably.

Donald Young has had a mixed season. He has had a semi final and quarter final on the Challenger tour. In Washington last month he reached the semi final beating Benneteau, Istomin and Kevin Anderson on the way.

Young starts at 1.65 . Backing him is always a nervy experience but you have to pick the match very carefully. Garcia Lopez is a better player but is suffering with his confidence. His recent losses have been close and I think hsi win over brown could just give him the boost he needs.

Young has held serve 80% of the time over the last 3 months so breaking him won’t be easy but I am going with Garcia Lopez to win in 3 sets. Laying Young below 1.40 limits the damage if Garcia isn’t able to compete as well as I expect him to.

 

 

WTA Connecticut, midnight –  Stosur v Bouchard

Both these players will be expecting to have a good tournament in New York starting next week. They have met 3 times with all the matches being in 2013. Bouchard leads 2-1 and they are 1-1 on hard courts. Bouchard’s hard court win was in the Hopman Cup exhibition which devalues it in my opinion.

Bouchard’s form suffered after her Wimbledon final. That match was a massive event in her young life and she needed time to get her head round it.  She seems to have settled down this week with an easy win over Jovanovski although Bojana had a nightmare match holding serve just once.

Stosur hasn’t won back to back matches since the French Open. Other than her two  losses to Serena Williams, one of which went to two tie breaks, Her other losses were as a strong favourite.

Bouchard really needs this win as she tries to rebuild her confidence. Stosur struggled in the first round against Nara with two of their three sets going to tie breaks. Bouchard is perhaps a little low at 1.69 . Her match with Jovanovski really wasn’t much of a test.

Bouchard says she has had knee and thigh injuries  since Wimbledon and played her first round match with her thigh heavily strapped.

If Stosur can lift her game as she did against Williams I think she has a real chance in this one and especially if Bouchard’s thigh injury will slow her down a little.

Stosur needs her serve to be working well and if it is in the early games I will be looking to lay Bouchard below 1.40 to 1.45 .

 

 

 

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