WTA Finals, 12:30 – Sharapova v Wozniacki
Sharapova leads the head to heads 5-3 but Wozniacki won their only meeting in 2014. That was at the US Open. She won in 3 sets.
Sharapova didn’t play at the year end |Championships last season but reached the final in 2012 where she lost to Williams.
Wozniacki played at the Sofia Championships in 2012 and also lost in the final.
Sharapova won the title in Beijing and has taken a 2 week break to be fresh for this tournament. Her serve was not as unreliable in Beijing. if she has problems on serve this week she is unlikely to be able to compensate with her ground strokes.
Wozniacki reached the US Open final and backed that up with another final in Tokyo a fortnight later. There was more success for her the week after as she made the semi finals in Wuhan. Her first round loss to Stosur in Beijing was perhaps slightly due to fatigue. She should also be well rested for this week.
Sharapova starts at 1.44 . In their eight matches they have only had two 3 set matches but I think we will see another one today. Wozniacki has won the first set in 4 of their 6 hard court meetings and that includes 2 of their 3 most recent matches.
I think we will see a much better price on Sharapova and a lay at the start is an option. Alternatively wait for a price above 1.80 before backing Sharapova.
Sharapova to win 2-1. Both are great fighters but her 3 month stats are slightly better.
ATP Valencia Open, 13:00 – Simon v Dolgopolov
Their most recent matches were in 2012. Dolgopolov won them both in straight sets. Simon won in Sidney the year before, also in straight sets.
Simon is currently the player in form. He reached the final in Shanghai where he lost to Federer and beat Wawrinka and Berdych en route to that final. Last season he had a bye into the second round in Valencia and lost to Falla. Next week the tour goes to Paris and I would think the Frenchman will be looking forward to taking his strong form there. He doesn’t really need the points from a win today and the chance of going to Paris early to prepare and also to see friends and family must be very tempting.
Dolgopolov has not been 100% fit. he has lost his last 3 matches but has competed more in each match. he lost to Mannarino in Stockholm in a third set tie break.
Dolgopolov reached the final in 2012. i think at 1.44 Simon is worth a lay in this situation. He can often start slowly anyway but If Dolgopolov’s fitness is still improving I can see him winning today.