29th May 2014

Looks like better weather in Paris this morning. The sun is shining!

The shock results continued yesterday with Serena Williams getting dumped our 6-2, 6-2 by Muguruza. Sister Venus was also knocked out having won the first set against Schmiedlova. Which seeds will fall today?

 

10:00Bertens starts as slight market favourite over Pavlyuchenkova.  Recent form suggests the market is about right. Bertens has been playing well and made the semi final of an ITF clay event 3 weeks ago.

Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t been playing terrible tennis but seems to have a real issue with second sets. In her last 9 matches she has won the second set just once and that was against a player ranked 209th. In the first round she didn’t even win a single game in the second set against Date Krumm.

I favour Bertens for the win but obviously would like Pav to take the first set!

 

10:00Kuznetsova can be a scary player to back at the best of times and 1.44 against Giorgi will be no exception. With her French Open pedigree I have to think Kuznetsova will come through in the end but with the top 2 seeds being dumped out already the 27th seed winning is far from certain.

Giorgi loves the big games and if she gets her nose in front early she can build up a lot of momentum. However her serve can be a real problem for her and Kuznetsova isn’t the sort of player you want to be floating over weak second serves to.

I will wait for the slow start from Kuznetsova and nervously back her when she goes an early break down.

 

12:00Leo Mayer is a 1.71 favourite against Gabashvili. When the market opened they were much more even. Price moves before a match often don’t mean anything and can be caused by rumours but this looks like value on Gabashvili. Mayer has been serving well enough recently to keep the match close and a lay on him below 1.40 would be nice.

This could be 4 or 5 sets.

 

15:00Verdasco’s form has tailed off a little since he won the US Men’s Clay Court Championships last month. he is up against a clay court specialist in Cuevas today and whilst I will be a little surprised if Verdasco loses I feel his starting price of 1.40 is way too low.

 

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