30th April 2014

Most of the favourites’ starting prices are low today. We will need to be patient.

 

ATP Munich, 10:00Denis Istomin had an excellent win over last year’s finalist and home favourite Kohlschreiber. He has won both his previous matches with Matosevic including their most recent which was on clay in 2013.

Matosevic did recently take a set from Cilic on clay. In the first round he was being completely outplayed by Przysiezny. He was 2-6, 1-5 down when Przysiezny picked up an injury. Matosevic won the next 5 games and his opponent retired.

There really should be only one winner here.1.42 is a fair price prematch. Matosevic will only take a set if Istomin switches off.

 

WTA Portugal, 11:00 – We had some awful performances from a few players yesterday. One of them was from Stosur who didn’t win a single game in the second set of her straight sets loss to Bacsinszky. This has pushed the Swiss player’s starting price down to 1.37 against Jabeur.

This season Jabeur has only failed to win  a set in 2 of her matches. She has had success on the ITF circuit but very little on the main tour.

Bacsinszky has also been doing well in the ITF tournaments with several semi finals and finals since the back end of last season. She won one title.in France in January. All her better tournaments were on the faster surfaces.

Bacsinszky is the stronger player but I will need a much higher price before backing her. If she can go an early break behind that would be perfect.

 

WTA – I’d expect no-hassle wins for Vinci and Bouchard but they both start at 1.30 which is a scary price to back the majority of WTA players. Wait for higher entries.  Actually Vesnina should be included in this group. She also starts at 1.30 but is more likely to trade higher than the other two.

 

ATP Munich, 14:00Klizan has been in good form but should he really be 1.60 against Youzhny?

It is true that Youzhny isn’t exactly in the form of his life. He has been struggling with injury and illness in recent months but despite this he played decent tennis against Seppi and grabbed an early lead against Haase ( although that lead was very short lived). He reached the quarter finals in Dubai even though he was suffering with a cold.

Klizan is concentrating on clay events so far this season and has been very consistent. He reached the final of a Challenger event last month.

If Youzhny has shown better recent form he would be favourite although evens would be more realistic. Players can find their form at any time and if he can start the match well we could see this price flip. Whether he can keep it going long enough to take the match is less likely.

Klizan to win in 3 sets.

 

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2 thoughts on “30th April 2014”

  1. I have been keeping an eye on your website for a few weeks now and I like the style of advise you give,
    I use it to focus on my decisions on matches – non trading.

    Pip pip

    Adrian K

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