My post titles this week have jinxed the match involved. Lopez was bagel’d by Nishikori. Tsonga was beaten in straight sets and Querrey’s serve was more than enough for “in form Youzhny”!
Maybe I should hire my blog post titles out to the highest bidder. Who do you need to lose?
Very brief thoughts on Friday’s matches as I have little time.
Dodig should be too strong for Nieminen. He has adopted an aggressive style this season and it is working well for him. Taking out Tsonga again and this time in straigt sets will have boosted his confidence even more. Not the best starting price at 1.45 but 1.60 would be more attractive.
Lucky Loser Lacko’s luck must surely run out against Raonic. The Canadian has been serving bombs all week.
Safarova’s excellent form has continued this week but towards the end of her 3 set epic with Petkovic she was looking exhausted. Two of the sets were tie breaks including the deciding set so the mental strain must have been massive as well as the physical effort involved.
Jankovic’s match with Suarez Navarro couldn’t have been shorter. She won 6-0, 6-0.
Jankovic leads the head to heads 5-2 but Safarova won their last match which was the only one in the last 2 seasons. That was on a hard court last year.
Predicted holds are identical at 73%. In the last month their stats couldn’t really be much closer. They are separated by tiny margins but Safarova edges the service holds whilst Jankovic is ahead on returns, break points converted and she allows fewer holds by opponents.
Jankovic starts at 1.70 but as they really should be nearer evens value is on Safarova. Her fatigue factor is a worry though so I will wait to back Jankovic above evens.
Berdych and Isner have shared their 4 previous meetings but Isner has won both the hard court matches. Whenever they have played a best of 3 match ( 3 of the 4 meetings) they went to a deciding set.
Their only match in the last 2 years was last year on the hard courts of Winston Salem.
Their routes to the quarter finals have been very different. Isner looked like he was on his way home in the first round when Wu took the firsts et and went ahead in the second set tie break. Isner pulled out the big serves and escaped. He also needed 3 sets to get past Bautista Agut which she won 6-4 in the decider.
Berdych has had a much easier week with a comfortable straight sets win over Andujar and a walkover in the next round when Davydenko pulled out.
Not surprisingly over the last 3 months Isner’s service stats are superior but Berdych leads all the other categories.
Berdych starts at 1.68 which is a little low when facing the Isner serve and taking into account the fact he hasn’t beaten the American on a hard court.
I’ll wait to get him a little higher although if the Isner break comes late in the first set I will wait until after the set to back Berdych.