4th Feb 2014

In Zagreb Phau plays Pavic.

Phau starts at 1.94 . This is his first main draw match of the season and only his second tournament. He has won through three qualifying rounds this week dropping just 1 set to Viola.

This is also Pavic’s first main draw match. His last qualifying match in Heilbronn saw him lose in straight sets as a 1.13 favourite against a player ranked 909th.

When Phau is timing the ball well he can be a tough opponent but when he loses confidence he can be awful. As he has won his qualifying matches it suggests that his mind is in a good place. I will follow the opening games but am favouring Phau. I will lay Pavic if he goes a break behind early.

Update: Phau won 6-3, 6-4.

 

My selection process short listed Krstin against Lajovic.

Lajovic is perhaps better suited to clay courts but has more experience of the main tour. This is Krstin’s first main draw match of his career.

Krstin beat Baghdatis in the qualifying rounds and I feel that he will put up a great fight but I’m not sure he will be able to close out the match if he gets into a winning position.

Even so I feel a lay of Lajovic below 1.30 ( his SP is 1.37 ) has a good chance of giving us profit. Don’t get too greedy though. Alternatively remove some or all of your liability after a break and a hold leaving the profit on Krstin.

Update: fairly easy for Lajovic 6-2, 6-3.

 

Volandri played Carreno Busta last September in a Challenger quarter final. He won in straight  sets on the clay in Genova, Italy.

Both players are clay court specialists. Volandri’s last tournament on clay was in November when he won the title in the Sao Paulo Challenger. Carreno Busta’s last clay court match was his loss to Volandri.

Neither player has won a match in 2014 although they did have pretty tough draws.

Volandri starts as slight underdog but I think he has the edge. His girly WTA serve won’t be doing him any favours though so he will need to be consistent with his ground strokes.

Update: I didn’t follow this but it looked like a typical WTA match. Pity it was ATP.

Carrena Busta won 6-0, 3-6, 6-1.

 

I’m really not sure what Dolgopolov is doing in Chile. He has made a typical Dolgo start to 2014 with some decent performances mixed in with some garbage.

He has played Gimeno Traver just once before on clay but it was in 2007 and they were both ranked over 200. For the record Gimeno Traver won.

Gimeno Traver reached the quarter finals of this event last season losing to Nadal. I think he has a great chance today but would prefer to lay Dolgopolov around 1.40 to 1.50 rather than lay at his SP of 1.66 .

Update: Gimeno Traver won 7-6, 3-6, 7-5.

    Trading Guide

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