9 Oct 2013 – Favourites struggling this week

Not many pre match favourites are having an easy time so far. Just  today we have lost Simon, Hewitt, Tomic, Gasquet and Dodig from the men’s and Cirstea and Krunic from the womens with several more having to fight much harder than expected.

 

My wife starts a new job tomorrow and has informed me we are getting up at 4:30 to gt her to the early shift so I might actually make the early session!

 

Bouchard is a bit low  at 1.25 as my selection process suggests Kumkhum has a good chance. I feel Bouchard will have to have a nightmare to not make it through as the winner but will wait for a healthier price after a break of serve.

Update: Bouchard won 6-2, 6-2.

 

Zahlavova Strycova and King start at around evens but  am favouring  BZS.

They have played jut once before which was at this year’s Wimbledon. BZS won in 2 sets.

In the last month King edges the serving stats but everything on the return side favours her opponent.

A fair chance of 3 sets so I will be laying the player who takes an early lead. This should b a nice swingy traders’ match.

Update: BZS won 2-6, 6-3, 6-1.

 

The only time Kohlschreiber beat Del Potro was when  the Argentinian withdrew before the match. You an understand then  Del Potro’s SP of 1.29 but as Kohlschreiber can usually keep sets close with the top players I would prefer to back when/if Kohlschreiber breaks.

Update: Good effort by Kohlschreiber but Del Potro came through despite  a fever.

Del Potro won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6.

 

Puig’s and Nara’s rankings are improving steadily. They have played once before which was earlier this year on clay. Nara won in 3 sets as underdog.

The price on Puig is much better this time at 1.80. Predicted holds favour her while return stats are more even. However if we look at just hard court matches Nara’s stats are stronger in all categories.

A close match is likely and there’s a good chance we won’t see a huge number of breaks. I will look to lay Puig when she is a break ahead.

Nara to win in 3.

Update: Nara came from behind in both sets to win 7-5, 7-6.

 

Isner struggled against an excellent Giraldo and he faces another clay courter in Berlocq.

The American won their only previous match which was at this year’s French open. Berlocq has shown some solid form on the hard courts with recent wins over Tursunov an Kohlschreiber.

You have to expect that Isner will win in the end but I will be very surprised if we don’t get a price well above his SP of 1.28.

Update: Berlocq won 6-4, 7-6.

 

I didn’t get chance to add any of the later matches on Tuesday but I will attempt to give thoughts on more matches during Wednesday…

 

In Linz Hantuchova isn’t an awful price at 1.63 against Knapp who has lost her first match on her previous 3 visits to this tournament.

Hantuchova has a decent record at Linz with the title in 2007 and a couple of quarter finals since although she lost in the first round last year.

Knapp’s serve could keep the score respectable but she tends to avoid indoor hard courts and her record on them is poor.

Part stake on Hantuchova at the start and I’ll add more if Knapp starts well.

Update: Wish I’d left this one alone.

Knapp won 6-2, 7-6.

 

The last match of the day is Niculescu against Kerber in Linz.

Niculescu has a good record indoors and has won 8 of her last 9 but she is playing an in form Kerber who has beaten her the last 2 times they played.

Kerber asked for a wild card for this tournament as she is looking to reach the year end finals so she is very motivated to perform well.

As always I’d prefer a higher price and if I see 1.40 I am all over it.

Update: I didn’t trade this in the end but followed the score. WHAT THE F…….

Niculescu took the first set 6-0!

Kerber won 0-6, 6-1,6-2.

    Trading Guide

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