ATP Finals – Mon

14:15 – Nadal v Soderling

Rankings are 2 and 9. Head to heads are 3-1 to Nadal.

Nadal is still  some distance away from his top form. Soderling has has a great season with one of the highlights being beating Nadal at the French Open.

Soderling plays his best tennis indoors. His style of play works best when the bounce is true and there is no wind. Nadal will be very motivated to do well this week as ( I think) if he is able to win this tournament and remain unbeaten he could take back the number 1 Ranking from Federer ( or at least get very close).

Both men are great on serve and backing either or both should work well. However make sure you don’t stay in a trade for too long if the server is struggling. Take the small loss as there are more games to come.

I’d expect Nadal to take the win and at 1.71 his price seems generous.

I also expect a very tight match.

Update: I was only able to follow a scoreboard that updated after each game ( and then it was 2 points or more behind being live) Not to be recommended but it was like the old days! Using that and Betfair Lite I held my nerve and came away with a 70 quid profit.

Looks like Soderling could be a danger in this tournament. As I said earlier he plays his best tennis indoors.  Can’t comment on how the two players performed as i didnt watch the game. Judging by the price movements its was very close though.

Soderling won 6-4, 6-4

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20:45 – Djokovic v Davydenko

Rankings are 3 and 7. Head to heads are 2-2. Davydenko won their last match in October.

Djokovic will feel he has a good chance to win this week and retain his title. Davydenko has looked a little tired in the last few weeks although has had some good wins.

Both men are good receivers and Scalping will be the best strategy here.

I expect a Djokovic win. If it turns into a tight match Davydenko will start to wilt first.

Update: Great match! It was Djokovic who looked tired at the start though I missed several games in that set, coming back to see Davydenko 5-3 up and 15-0 up against serve. A good ol’ 15-40 opportunity ( or is it a tennis scalper op, I forget)  and I was 15 green as Davy won the set.

In the second set, Djoker had a chance to break but didn’t take it. That cost me my green. By the end of that set I was hedged for -18. Just wasn’t working for me.

Djokovic took the set. In the decider he got an early break and I managed to back him just before the break was converted.  Djokovic had a chance to serve for the match at 5-4 but Davydenko broke serve.

I didn’t bail and Djokovic broke in the very next game to 0. He served out for the match. I green up after he had lost a match point. £29 green.

Djokovic won 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.

I didn’t take a screen shot as it was midnight and I had to be up at 5:30.(paintshop pro takes an age to start up)  I’ll post a shot of my betfair account for yesterday.


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