ATP Finals – Tues

14:15 – Del Potro v Verdasco

 

Ranking are 5 and 8. Head to head is 1-0 to Del Potro.

Del Potro will be keen to get a win under his belt and will see Verdasco as his best chance to do that. he made a slow start against Murray but was warming up as the game went on.

 

In contrast, Verdasco set off like a bullet against Federer but by the time he had been pulled back to 1 set all his spirit was broken and Fed cruised through the deciding set.

 

Both men are strong on serve but Verdasco is more consistent while Del Potro has more power. Should be an interesting game and one that i expect Del Potro to win.

 

How close it is will depend on Verdasco’s mental state. If he can deal with the disappointment of taking the first set against the number 1 yet still losing the match then he could trouble the Argentinian but i don’t think he will.

 

DP wants this more than Verdasco. Scalping the market is the best way to trade it. Take what the match gives you. If DP takes the first set its all over.

 

Update: Seemed to be going to plan in the first set. Del Potro took an early break and held on to take the set. I underestimated Verdasco’s mental strength.  He fought back and took to second set.

 

In the decider Del Potro served for the match but Verdasco was still fighting. he pulled back to a tie break but Del Potro finally won through. DP won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6.

 

As I was trading from work with Betfair Lite again I backed DP at 40-15 against serve in the first set and greened up shortly after. I left it at that and got on with some work 🙂

Screenshot for the last 2 days matches.
Screenshot for the last 2 days matches.

 

 

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20:45 – Federer v Murray

 

Rankings are 1 and 4. Head to heads are 6-3 to Murray.

 

Both men looked in decent form in their first matches. Fed made a terrible start against Verdasco and it cost him the first set. He took control after that and his quality shone through.

 

Murray played very well but had a lapse at the start of the second set. He played a poor service game and lost it to 0. That handed the second set to Del Potro but Murray came back strong in the decider.

 

Impossible to pick a winner fro the start. They are pretty much even on betfair.  Murray is infront of a home crowd ( well, sort of) and if he can get off to a good start and remain aggressive then he has a great chance. A win should see him through to the semi finals.

 

As with the other match I recommend scalping it. Taking a position before the  match’s direction is a little more clear will either be very profitable or very damaging to your stake and therefore is gambling.

 

I’m sure it will be a great match. Let’s hope that Murray can play the way he did against DP, remain aggressive and takes a tight match.

 

Update: Murray made a bad start and lost serve in the first game. However he broke back immediately and was playing well. He took the first set. In that first set Federer’s forehand was letting him down. When he loses a match that is often the case. However in the second set he started to hit those forehands and his unforced errors were reduced. He looked the better player in that second set. In the decider Federer was in a different class. Murray kept fighting but just wasn’t up to the task.

 

I broke one of my rules in trading this match. More family troubles ( do I really want to work from home??) hadn’t put me in the best of moods. I have a rule that I don’t trade when  I am distracted by such situations. I was going to watch the match and had the market open. I was going to try to nick a few ticks here and there. I decided to record it to perhaps show how you could get a half decent profit with very few small trades.

 

Terrible plan! The first 2 or 3 trades went against me and soon had a largish red. Below my bail ou figure so I kept waiting for the right opportunities. I pulled the red back and ended with a good green screen. I think the match shows how you shouldn’t panic and be patient whilst waiting for better opportunites.

 

fedgreen 

fedmurraytrades

I may not get chance to edit /tidy up the video until the weekend. Would people prefer an unedited one ( which will be pretty dull as there are long periods in the first  and second sets where I didnt place a trade.) or an edited version showing every single trade but taking out the periods of inactivity?

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