ATP Italian Open, Rome, Quarter Final: Goffin v Zverev

If Goffin can make Zverev work hard in the early games he has a great chance of beating the tiring German

Due to start at 8 pm

Goffin 2.70, Zverev 1.57

Goffin leads their previous matches 2-1. The last time they met was in the Hopman Cup exhibition tournament in December 2017. He won on an indoor court in straight sets.  Zverev won their only clay match in April 2016. He won in 3 sets.

Head to head info from Tennis Insight

Overall results in last 12 months are pretty even. Zverev’s results this season are stronger. 80% v 68% matches won. On clay both have strong results this season but again Zverev has the edge. He has won 15 of his 17 clay matches in 2018. Goffin won 9 of his 12 matches on clay.

I have been saying that I expect Zverev to tire this week. He has won the titles in the previous two weeks. Playing on clay courts can be more tiring that on other surfaces as the courts are softer and also rallies tend to be a lot longer. There were no huge signs of it affecting Zverev in the last match although his second serve was a little weak.

David Goffin

Goffin has beaten some decent clay courters this week. Leo Mayer was easily beaten in the first round. Cecchinato put up a good fight in the second round and took their opening set. In the third round Goffin looked comfortable in the first set and Del Potro retired towards the end of set two.

We have some value on Goffin here. Lay Zverev around 1.40 to 1.45 and remove liability at 1.90. Three sets  are likely and i feel Goffin has a great chance of reaching the semi final.

Update: A single break of serve decided each of the first 2 sets. Goffin had a break lead in the deciding set but couldn’t hold on to it.
Zverev won 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

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2 thoughts on “ATP Italian Open, Rome, Quarter Final: Goffin v Zverev”

  1. blank

    whata match sir….for most of the time my balls were in my mouth as I entered when goffin got broken and then added when he was a set down…..wrong entry was that???
    I will never be able to understand the exact nuisance of what a transaction will be called as a “trade”
    I was lucky that somehow Goffin levelled the set so I got out of my position with a little profit….if not I was never in a position to do anything than to watch the money wipe off…
    Is it like if it goes your way it’s a trade , if not it’s a gamble

    1. blank

      People will call it what they like but with just 1 break in each of the first 2 sets, as you say we are sat hoping it goes our way. In that situation it is hard to say that’s not gambling. By entering after Goffin was broken we are taking better value and when we add to the position after the set was lost we are doing so with the intention of trading out. We are improving our break even price which you don’t do when gambling.
      Goffin barely lost points on serve in set 2 until he broke. Matches like these are the reason I prefer WTA although our lays on Zverev were on the low side.

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