Stefanos Tsitsipas (2.08) v Andrey Rublev (1.91)
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Head to head results are 4-4. they last met in March this year on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam. Rublev won their semi final in straight sets. Tsitsipas won their last clay match at the French Open in September 2020. He won in straight sets. Rublev won on clay just before the French open in the final of ATP Hamburg. He won in 3 sets.
Both players have excellent overall win percentages but Rublev’s results are stronger. Both also have superb clay results. Rublev has a much higher ROI on clay.
Tsitsipas has not lost a set this week. He put an end to Dan Evans’ excellent week in the semi final, losing just 3 games. In the last 3 rounds Tsitsipas has faced just 1 break point per match. He faced 4 break points in the first round against Aslan Karatsev and saved them all.
Rublev dropped sets against Roberto Bautista Agut and Rafa Nadal. He was broken 10 times in the last 3 rounds. Four of those were against Nadal. he has been taking more risks than Tsitsipas this week and has played some inspired tennis. His stats for the tournament are stronger for everything except service holds. Tsitsipas leads that stat 91% to 74%.
I give Rublev a small edge today. There is a very good chance of it going to 3 sets. Lay Tsitsipas around 1.60 and remove or reduce liability at 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.