Fognini has a very strong lead in their previous matches. He is ahead 9-1. They last played in Vienna in October 2016. Ramos won on an indoor court in 2 easy sets.
Fognini has won all 5 of their clay court matches.
Both have won 7 of their last 10 on clay. Ramos’ stats are a little stronger when comparing those 7 wins. He reached the semi finals in Quito ans quarter finals in Buenos Aires last week.
Fognini played Davis Cup match on clay and needed 5 sets to beat Pella as a 1.26 favourite. He has played Robredo in each of the last 2 weeks and yesterday got some revenge for Robredo beating him in Buenos Aires.
Fognini reached the final in 2015 but retired in the second round last year. Ramos has twice before reached the second round at this tournament but has never gone further.
If Fognini is interested then he has the bigger game on clay. The trouble with him is that we can never be sure when he iS interested.
Fognini starts at around 1.60. I feel it is risky to back him at that price but will enter if he gets broken. Remove the liability if he wins the opening set.