Ferrer has won all 9 of their previous meetings. Their last match was in October 2015. He won in straight sets on an indoor hard court. They have never met on an outdoor hard court.
Fognini was 2 sets down to Gabashvili in the last round and set 3 went to a tbreak. He was so close to going home. He reached the 4th round last year beating Nadal in the 3rd round.
Ferrer had an easier first match when Dolgopolov retired before the end of set 1. He reached the third round last year but is far from his best this season. He has dropped outside the top 10. If Fognini can get his mind on the match he has a chance.
I would still rather have my money on Ferrer. Back him if he gets broken first