Anderson 1.45, Carreno Busta 3.20
Anderson has won both their previous meetings. They last met in August this year in Canada. He won on a hard court in straight sets. His other win was on clay in Casablanca in 2013.
They have very similar results this year. Hard court results are also close but Anderson has the slightest of edges. His recent form on hard courts has been stronger.
Carreno Busta has not lost a set so far. His toughest match was in the fourth round against Canadian Shapovalov. He won in 3 tie breaks.
Anderson beat Sam Querrey in 4 sets in the last round.Lorenzi pushed him very close in their 4 sets in the fourth round.
Stats for the tournament slightly favour Carreno Busta. Anderson only leads in the service holds category with 96% of service games held ( Carreno Busta 88%).
The initial value is on Carreno Busta. I expect this to be a long match. Lay Anderson around 1.30 and reduce liability if he loses set 1. Carreno Busta has a better tie break record this year. We will get a couple of tie breaks. Slight edge to Carreno Busta for the win.
Update: Anderson won in 4 sets. Carreno Busta won the opening set and there was nothing between them in set 2 until Carreno Busta lost concentration and threw his serve away to give Anderson the set. The sets were close after that but Anderson looked the stronger player