Thiem 3.05, Dimitrov 1.48
Thiem leads their previous matches 2-1. The last time they played was on clay in Madrid in May this year. Thiem won that one in a third set tie break. Dimitrov’s win was on a hard court in Brisbane in January. That went to 3 sets too. Thiem’s other win was on a hard court last season.
Slightly better overall results for Dimitrov this year with 69% of matches won. Thiem won 66%.
Indoors Dimitrov’s results are much better. He has won 77% of matches indoors and reached the final in Stockholm in October.
Thiem’s only successful week indoors in 2017 was in Rotterdam in February where he made the quarter finals.
I have to favour Dimitrov. It is his first time at the year end finals so he may have a few extra nerves at the start. Thiem was there last year though won just 1 of his round robin matches. Wait for 1.75 on Dimitrov. We have a fair chance of 3 sets