Australian Open 2014 – week 1, Thursday

The heat in Melbourne eased off as the day progressed. However Thursday had predicted temperatures of 44 degrees!

 

Not that many matches that I am interested in tonight. Most of the prices are rubbish.

 

Erakovic recorded her first win of the season. Now that she is away from the pressure of playing at home she was able to defeat Cirstea

Diyas came through the qualifying rounds. She had a nice draw in the first round meeting another qualifier and dealt with Siniakova in two sets.

Diyas has better stats over the last year and 6 months although with fewer main tour matches. If Erakovic plays her A game she will take this. However her record in Australia isn’t really any better than it is in New Zealand and I think we will see her at a much higher price. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Diyas takes this in 3 sets.

Laying  Erakovic a break ahead seems a good option.

Update: Diyas won 6-4, 6-0.

 

Svitolina had an excellent win over Kuznetsova in the first round. Her next opponent is Aussie Rogowska who justified her wild card entry by beating Duque Marino in straight sets. Rogowska has lost her last 8 matches in this price range and I don’t expect her to improve that record today.

Svitolina’s starting price is 1.36 which is too low to be backing her. 1.50 to 1.60 is a little  more appealing. She should get the job done.

Update: Svitolina won 6-4, 7-5.

 

McHale leads the head  to heads 2-1 with Wozniacki and she won their most recent match in Juune 2012 on grass. They are 1-1 on hard courts.

Wozniacki hasn’t settled into her stride yet and 1.30 feels too low. I’m not sure McHale will be consistent enough to get the win but we are very likely to see a higher price.

Update: Wozniacki won 6-0, 1-6, 6-2.

 

Simon didn’t withdraw before his first round match as he felt there was a possibility that Brands wouldn’t cope with the heat. He ended up winning 16-14 in the 5th set!

Cilic also had a 5 set match and had to come back from 2 sets behind against Granollers.

They have played 3 times before with Simon winning them all. Every match went to a deciding set.

The market has Cilic at 1.30 and seems to have decided that Simon won’t be able to compete. Could be worth a small lay around 1.20 to 1.25 . I certainly won’t be backing Cilic at 1.30 .

Update: Simon won 4-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-2.

 

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