Australian Open 2014 – week 2, Tuesday

Li Na lost in last year’s final and is on track to get there again. Standing in her way is Pennetta who is enjoying her tennis now her wrist injury is, for now, in the past.

They have played 3 times but the most recent was in 2010. Pennetta won that one on a hard court in Sydney and leads the head to heads 2-1.

Pennetta was the higher ranked player the last time they played. This time Li is much higher ranked at 4.

Let’s be honest if Li plays her best tennis she will win this. However any slip up and Pennetta is well capable of taking advantage.

Li starts at 1.26 and i will be looking to lay her below 1.20 . I am taking a chance that Li is not going to produce great tennis but she rarely wins the easy way.  I do expect the Chinese player to come through but it will be in 2 tight sets or maybe 3.

Update: Very one sided match. Li  won 6-2, 6-2.

 

Ivanovic has to be full of confidence having beaten favourite Serena Williams already. She hasn’t made it past the 4th round of a slam for a while so this quarter final is a real achievement. If she gets carried away with the possibilities she might distract herself or tighten up.

Bouchard rarely gets nervous and seems to play her own game whether its working or not. She overcame the home favourite Dellacqua in the previous round.

They have played just once before which was at last year’s Wimbledon. Bouchard won that in 2 sets.

Ivanovic has the greater experience at this level and if she cam keep her head she can take the semi final spot. However Bouchard won’t make it easy for her and the 1.39 starting price is on the low side.

Laying either player if they go an early break ahead seems like a decent plan to start with. This is Ivanovic’s to win or lose.

Update: Great match with big hitting from both players. Bouchard won 57, 7-5, 6-2.

 

Berdych v Ferrer is covered for the Shark Tips service.

 

Wawrinka took Djokovic to 5 sets at last year’s Australian Open. He did the same at the US Open last year although his two best of three set matches since then have gone fairly tamely Djokovic’s way.

Djokovic leads the head to heads 17-2.

In their two grand slam encounters Wawrinka took the opening set. Djokovic has to be a lay at 1.11

Wawrinka has dropped just one set and should have energy to spare as one of his opponents withdrew before the match and another retired in the second set.

Djokovic hasn’t been troubled so far so he needs a match like this one to lift his game a level. Ideally Wawrinka takes the opening set ( plus an early break lead in set 2, or is that greedy? ) and we can switch our lay to a back on Djokovic at a more worthwhile price.

Low risk strategy that may give us a chance of healthy profit.

Update: Wawrinka won 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 9-7.

 

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