Bell Challenge Final

Well, hopefully Betfair have sorted their problems out although I was just trading the England/OZ one day cricket match and the market was suspended. They don’t suspend the market in cricket so it was a bit strange. On the BF forum they were saying that all inplay markets were down.

They came back just in time for another wicket and I made back most of what I lost on the Czink match last night. Bailed out too soon as I usually do on the cricket but I didnt know if there were going to be further BF problems so was glad to get out.

Anyway, back to a PROPER sport 😉

19:00 – Czink v Safarova

Rankings are 52 and 50. They have never met.

Czink surprised me last night and Safarova has also been in good form. This could be a close match. Neither girl has lost  a set so far.

The women have been very unpredictable this week ( so what’s new?) and 15-40 should work well. Watching the first few games will give an idea of who is holding serve easiest.

Wouldn’t recommend leaving a bet to run on this one. The less time spent exposed to the market the better 🙂

Safarova is fave at 1.58 but I really can’t pick a winner from the start.

Update: Very close match Safarova seemed to be in control in the first set. When she won the first set I could have greened up for about £30. Something I have been trying to do recently is to not close out a trade too soon and when a player has won the first set and seems to be fairly comfortable I will give them the  chance to get an early break in the second set. This can mean a lot more profit if it works or a reduced profit if they don’t get an early break.

In this case Czink broke serve and went on to win the second set! I decided to trade the match as I used to. This relies on reading the game inplay which can be difficult when using only a scoreboard.

It often means a large red figure on the player I feel isn’t going to win. If one player takes over in the final set then this method works quite well. In this case Czink went a break of serve up so I had a large red on Safarova. Safarova broke back. The following games went with serve until the price went to 5-5. To that point I was switching sides to back the receiving player in each game. I do this because in the deciding set, a break of serve will bring a massive move in the price and unless you are on the right side already you have little or no chance of getting on to the leader.

It can be a bit scary until you get comfortable with it but from 5-5 Czink broke serve and all I needed her to do was hold serve once to secure the win. She did this to take the match 7-5 in the final set.

I have recorded the whole match, warts and all and will produce that tomorrow evening and post on the member’s site.

Had I followed my own advice above I would have greened up at the end of the first set. Not recommending you trade this way but you will find the vid interesting.

czinkfinal 

 

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