Djokovic (1.95) v Medvedev (2.04)

Due to start at 8:30 am

Djokovic leads their previous matches 4-3. Their last match was at the ATP finals in November Medvedev won in straight sets on an indoor court. Djokovic won on a hard court at the ATP Cup in January 2020. He won in 3 sets. Medvedev beat him on hard in Cincinnati 2019 in 3 sets. None of their 3 hard court matches ended in straight sets.

Overall results are superb for both players. Djokovic has a slight edge. He has won 44 of his last 50 matches. Medvedev has won 40 of his last 50. He has a small lead on hard. On hard courts Djokovic won 45 of his last 50 and Medvedev won 44 of 50.

Djokovic has had an eventful tournament. He pulled a muscle in the early rounds. He seemed to think ( or wanted us all to think) that it was a muscle tear. He almost blew a 2 sets lead against Taylor Fritz in the third round. In a TV interview he said that if it was any other tournament he wouldn’t continue. He dropped sets to Milos Raonic and Alex Zverev but there were less signs of the injury. In the semi final he put an end to Aslan Karatsev’s amazing run to the semis.

Medvedev’s route to the final has been simpler. He only dropped sets to Filip Krajinovic in the third round when he picked up a minor injury. The injury almost caused him to throw away a 2 sets lead. Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas were beaten in straight sets. Tsitsipas was perhaps suffering a “hangover” from beating Nadal in the previous round.

Stats for the tournament all favour Medvedev. Djokovic has reached the Australian Open final 8 times and hasn’t lost a final yet. Medvedev’s only appearance in a slam final was at the US Open in 2019. He was exhausted going into the final and still fought back from 2 sets down to take Rafa Nadal to a 5th set.

Djokovic has not quite been at his best in the tournament, partly due to his injury. I think Medvedev has a great chance to take his first grand slam title. It will be a long match. Djokovic’s record in Australian Open finals is a tough stat to go against. Lay Djokovic around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.

 

Jennifer Brady (5.6) v Naomi Osaka (1.21)

Due to start at 8:30 am

Osaka leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met in the semi final of the US Open in August. Osaka won in 3 sets. Brady won their other hard court match in 2014 in Charleston, USA. She won in 2 sets.

Both players have strong overall results. Osaka’s overall win percentage is better. It is the same pattern on hard courts. Osaka has won 42 of her last 50 hard court matches. Brady won 38 of 50.

Brady didn’t drop a set in the first 4 rounds. Karolina Muchova and Jessica Pegula took her to 3 sets. Brady reached the semi finals of the US Open where she lost to Osaka in 3 sets. Her other good runs in slams both came in 2017 when she made the fourth rounds of the US and Australian Opens.

Osaka has lost just 1 set so far which was to Garbine Muguruza in the fourth round. She beat Serena Williams in straight sets in the semi finals. Osaka won the Australian Open in 2019 and the US Open in 2020 and 2018. Experience of not only being in slam finals but also of winning them will help her today.

Their stats for the tournament are really quite even. Osaka has played arguably stronger opponents. If Brady can handle the nerves she can make a match of this. Brady has only been in 8 finals in her career. Six of those were in ITF’s. Seven of her finals were on hard courts. Her most recent was in Lexington last August where she beat Teichmann in straight sets as favourite. In February 2019 she lost as 1.57 favourite in the Indian Wells Challenger to Golubic. Her second main tour final being a grand slam final is a huge deal. Nerves are likely to be an issue for her.

Osaka isn’t immune to nerves but it is hard to go against her here. I won’t be backing Osaka at 1.21. We can try a small lay on her around 1.15 and remove or reduce liability at 1.35. Back Osaka if she loses the first set.