Novak Djokovic (1.34) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (3.9)

Due to start at 14:00

Djokovic leads their previous matches 5-3. they last played in the quarter finals in Rome in May. Djokovic won on clay in 3 sets. He won their last 2 matches with the other being at the French Open semi final in September. He won in 5 sets. He has won all 3 of their clay matches.

Both players have superb long term win percentages. They give a small edge to Djokovic. He also has a slim lead in the last 12 months and in 2021. Djok has the higher ROI this season. They also both have superb clay win percentages too. Long term results give Djokovic a small advantage but Tsitsipas has better clay results in 2021. Djokovic won 17 of 20. Tsitsipas won 22 of 25.

Tsitsipas was taken to 4 sets by John Isner in the third and to 5 sets by Alex Zverev in the semi final.

Djokovic was taken to 5 sets by Lorenzo Musetti who retired in set 5 of their fourth round match. He was taken to 4 sets by Matteo Berrettini and Rafa Nadal in the quarter final and semi final. He was being easily beaten in the first set by Nadal. After that set Nadal’s second serve stats dropped off a cliff in the next set. He rallied a little in the third set and fell apart in set 4. After the match Nadal said that Djokovic deserved to win and his ankle injury had nothing to do with the results (of course it did). He is now doubtful for Wimbledon.

Tsitsipas is playing his first slam final. Djokovic has been there many times. Regardless of what happens in earlier rounds he always lifts himself for the really big matches. I hope Tsitsipas can make him work for the win and the Greek player should take at least 1 set. We could try a lay around 1.20 and remove some or all liability at 1.40. Back Djokovic above 1.85. It’s also worth laying the first set winner.

Update: Tsitsipas faced 2 break points in the first game of the match but wasn’t broken. There were no more break points until Djokovic served at 4-5. He saved that set point and broke the Tsitsipas serve in the next game. Djokovic was then broken to 15 when he served for the set. In the tie break, Tsitsipas took a 4-0 lead and hung but took the tie break 8-6 having saved another set point.
In the second set, Djokovic was broken in the first game. He didn’t face a single break point and another break of the Djokovic serve gave him a 2 sets lead.
After that it was the Djokovic show. Only one of the games in the third set had break points. Djokovic needed 5 break chances to take the game from Tsitsipas. That was enough to give him the set.
The fourth set was very one sided. Djokovic took the first 4 games. He did not face a break point in that set.
The deciding set was closer. Djokovic had a break point in the first game but Tsitsipas held. However, in Tsitsipas’ next service game Djokovic did get the break. Only 1 more game would see break points. That was on the Tsitsipas serve when he served at 2-4.

Djokovic won 6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4

 

Barbora Krejcikova (1.84) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (2.16)

Due to start at 2 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Long term overall win percentages are better for Krejcikova. Their 12 month and 2021 win percentages also favour her. Long term clay win percentages and 12 month win percentages also favour Krejcikova but on clay in 2021 they are even. Pavlyuchenkova has the higher ROI on clay.

Pavlyuchenkova has only dropped sets in the tournament when she started matches as underdog. She had some revenge over Aryna Sabalenka in the third round for beating her in the Madrid semi final. This time she was not struggling with injury and took the third set 6-0. Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina both took the opening set from her. Azarenka rolled over quite meekly but Rybakina pushed her all the way. Pavlyuchenkova won their deciding set 9-7. In the semi final Tamara Zidansek fought hard but Pavlyuchenkova recovered from being broken first in both sets.

Krejcikova won the tournament in the week before the French Open. In her first round match she looked a little flat against Kristyna Pliskova and lost the opening set. She recovered well but at that stage wasn’t looking likely to get to the second week, never mind the final. After that match she didn’t lose another set until the semi final when she faced match points against Maria Sakkari. Cori Gauff, Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina were all taken down in 2 sets.

Stats for the tournament are fairly even. Krejcikova has a slight lead in service holds. Return points are pretty even. It is very tough to pick a winner. I am going with Krejcikova based on how she held things together against Sakkari. In particular, with Sakkari facing match point, the Greek player hit a ball long. The ball was called out but the umpire came to check the mark. He ruled that the ball was in. They don’t use Hawkeye at this tournament but have it for the TV coverage and Hawkeye showed that the ball had been well out. Sakkari went on to hold her serve. Obviously, Krejcikova didn’t know that Hawkeye called the ball out but she was in a perfect position to also know the ball has been long. She could have crumbled but she didn’t.

The sets will be close. Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.60 and remove some or all liability at 2.30. Back Krejcikova if she loses the first set.

Update: Pavlyuchenkova broke serve in the first game. She was immediately broken back and would not win another game in the set.
Set 2 saw a complete turnaround. Pavlyuchenkova raced into a double break 5-1 lead. She was broken while serving for the set but broke again to level the match.
The deciding set was closer. Krejcikova broke to lead 2-1 but Pavlyuchenkova broke straight back. Pavlyuchenkova would be broken against at 3-3 and Krejcikova held on to take the set, the match and the French Open title.

Krejcikova won 6-1, 2-6, 6-4.