Semi Final. Please note that the final will not be played. The winners of the semi finals will each receive finalist ranking points and prize money.

Sakkari (1.67) v Kontaveit (2.46)

Due to start at midnight

Sakkari leads their previous matches 4-3. The last time they met was in May 2019 in Rome. Sakkari won on clay in straight sets. Sakkari leads 3-2 on hard courts. All their matches have ended in 2 sets. They met twice on hard courts in 2018 and won a match each.

Long term overall win percentages favour Kontaveit although Sakkari has the better ROI. Sakkari’s overall results in the last year are a little better. She also has a higher ROI. It is the same pattern on hard courts.

Sakkari made a very bad start in the last round against Angelique Kerber. Her serve was terrible and she was twice a break behind but managed to break Kerber back each time. At 4-4 Kerber still seemed to have the edge. She was serving and 40-0 up. She then pretty much fell apart. She was broken and Sakkari held her serve to take the set. The second set was very one sided. She has not lost a set this week.

Kontaveit also has not lost as et in the tournament. She was very comfortable against Christina McHale in the first round and lost just 4 games. She had to work a lot harder in the second round against Bethane Mattek Sands. Mattek Sands had beaten Barbora Strycova as underdog in the previous round. She broke the American’s serve in the first game of the match. She held on to the lead until she served for the set at 5-4 but was broken. Another Kontaveit break in the next game gave her another chance to serve for the set. This time she served it out comfortably. It was a very similar pattern in the second set. Kontaveit broke serve in the third game of the set. She was serving at 4-3 up when Mattek Sands broke back. Another late break allowed her to serve for the match. She won 7-5, 7-5.

Stats for the tournament favour Sakkari for everything except service holds. She had a nightmare on serve for most of the first set against Angelique Kerber. Back Sakkari around 2.00 to 2.10 or if she loses the first set.

Update: Sakkari easily took the opening set and Kontaveit won the second set. In the match tie break Sakkari took a 3-0 lead but it was Kontaveit who came out on top.
Kontaveit won 2-6, 6-3, 11-9

 

Semi Final

Vondrousova (3.15) v Muguruza (1.47)

This will be the first time they have played.

Long term overall results and also results in the last 12 months favour Muguruza. Her hard court results are also stronger.

Last season Muguruza had some excellent results on hard courts. In January she reached the semis in Shenzhen, quarter finals in Hobart and reached the final of the Australian Open. She had another quarter final in February in Doha. At the US Open she fell in the second round to Tsvetana Pironkova in straight sets which was disappointing but Pironkova surprised a few people in that tournament. Last month she reached the quarter finals in Abu Dhabi.

Muguruza has not lost a set so far in the tournament. She has not lost more than 2 games in a set. In the first round she beat Alison Van Uytvanck 6-2, 6-0. I had expected Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to give her a few problems but in the end put up very little resistance. She was beaten 6-1, 6-2. Even Sofia Kenin only managed to break the Muguruza serve once, losing 6-2, 6-2.

Vondrousova has been market favourite in each round this week. Varvara Gracheva kept their opening set close but didn’t win a game in set two. I fancied Vera Zvonareva to take her out in the second round and it was a real battle. Zvonareva served for the first set but was broken and Vondrousova took it in a tie break. Zvonareva corrected that mistake by taking the second set in a tie break. In the deciding set Zvonareva went a break up at 4-3 but 2 breaks of serve for Vondrousova gave her the win. She lost the opening set in the last round against Podoroska but took the vistory with the match tie break decider.

Back Muguruza around 1.80 to 1.90.

Update: A very one sided match. Muguruza won 6-1, 6-0.