Final

Zverev (2.02) v Medvedev (1.96)

Due to start at 2 pm

Zverev leads their previous matches 5-1. Their last match was at the year end finals in November 2019. Zverev won on an indoor hard court in straight sets. He has won both their indoor matches. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets.

Overall results are better for Zverev in the last 12 months. He also has the higher ROI. Long term indoor results are fairly even but Zverev has much better indoor results in the last 12 months. He has won 14 of 16 in the last year and 12 of 12 in 2020. Medvedev has won 8 of 15 in the last year on indoor courts and 8 of 12 in 2020.

Alexander Zverev beat Rafa Nadal in straight sets yesterday as underdog. He also beat Stan Wawrinka in straight sets in the quarter final. He dropped his only set of the week against Adrian Mannarino in the second round. They took a tie break set each and Zverev won the deciding set 6-4. Zverev won two indoor title last month in Cologne. he has been in excellent form since the tour resumed in August reaching the final of the US open and the fourth round of the French Open.

Daniil Medvedev has also been in reasonable form since August. He reached the semi finals at the US Open. He reached the quarter finals in Vienna last week where he didn’t look like he wanted to be there. It has been a different story this week. He has been very focused. He has lost just 1 set this week which was against Alex De Minaur in the third round. He totally outplayed Diego Schwartzman in the quarter final and also won in 2 sets against Milos Raonic yesterday. He has been broken 3 times in 4 matches.

Stats for the tournament are pretty even. Both have served extremely well. The sets should be tight but I give Zverev the edge. He has been in amazing form indoors this year. Medvedev has really stepped up a level this week though and won’t make it easy for him. Zverev has a much better tie break record on all surfaces but is significantly better in tie breaks indoors.

Lay Medvedev around 1.65 to 1.70 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.30. Back Zverev if he loses the first set.

 

Quarter Final

Zverev (1.47) v Wawrinka (3.1)

Due to start at 7 pm though will possibly be much later.

Alexander Zverev has won all 3 of their previous meetings.

The last time they played was at the Australian Open in January and he won in 4 sets. Their only indoor meeting was in Sep 2016 and he won in 3 sets. Stan Wawrinka took a set in all their matches.

Overall results in the last year are close but favour Zverev. Indoor results are also a little better for Zverev.

Wawrinka played a solid match in the first round to beat Dan Evans in straight sets. He faced just 2 break points and wasn’t broken. Wawrinka started his match with American Tommy Paul as a 1.40 favourite but it was Paul who was the stronger player in the first set. The second set was a little messy with both players being broken 3 times. Wawrinka was a break of serve ahead 3 times but the set went into a tie break. Wawrinka levelled the match. He took the deciding set with a double break of serve. I expected Wawrinka to be more focused against Rublev in the third round and that proved to be the case. He lost the first set but won the match in 3 sets.

Zverev won indoor titles in the two Cologne tournaments last month. He has had a week to recover but he may be tiring a little. He really struggled against Mannarino in the last round. He won in 3 very tight sets which included 2 tie breaks despite Mannarino having reached the final last week in Nur-Sultan. I expected him to tire. Zverev served fairly well overall and hit 19 aces. He faced 6 break points and was broken 3 times.

Wawrinka can be inconsistent usually steps up against the big names. We should see another strong performance from him today.

Lay Zverev around 1.30 and remove some or all of your liability at 1.60. Lay the set 1 winner. We have a decent chance of seeing 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Zverev to win.

Update: Zverev comfortably took the first set and Wawrinka was broken 3 times. The second set was much closer. Wawrinka broke Zverev’s serve to lead 3-2 and served for the set at 5-4. he was broken and the set went into a tie break. Zverev easily won the tie break 7-1
Zverev won 6-3, 7-6.