The round robin matches are over and we have our 4 semi finalists. Fittingly they are the top 4 ranked players in the world. Both matches have the potential to be classics. I’ll try to figure out who will make it to Sunday’s final.

Thiem (2.6) v Djokovic (1.62)

Due to start at 2 pm

Djokovic leads their previous matches 8-4. Their most recent meeting was in the Australian Open final in January. Djokovic won in 5 sets on a hard court. They met in the round robin stages of this tournament last season. Thiem won that match in a 3rd set tie break. Four of their last 5 matches went to a deciding set. The other match was over in 2 tie breaks so this is going to be close. Both have excellent indoor records.

Thiem didn’t play well in his last match. That may have been because there was nothing to play for as he had already qualified for the semi finals. Alternatively he may have been tanking the match to save energy. That may work against him today as he could have wrecked his momentum. As we saw from Medvedev last night some players would prefer to keep the winning run going.

Djokovic lost to Medvedev in straight sets in the round robin matches. He beat Schwartzman and Zverev in 2 sets. He needed to beat Zverev yesterday to qualify for this semi final. Zverev played better than he had done in his previous matches and put Djokovic under pressure especially in their second set. Djokovic faced 3 break points but was not broken.

We have some value on Thiem and I expect this to go to 3 sets. I think Thiem’s flat performance in the last match could also affect his performance today. Djokovic will find a way to win as his intensity will be higher. Back Djokovic around 2.10. Lay the winner of the first set.

Medvedev (1.78) v Nadal (2.26)

Due to start at 8 pm

Nadal has won all 3 of their previous matches. Their most recent was at this tournament last year. He won in a third set tie break. He also won in the US Open final in 2019 and that one went to 5 sets. In the win at this tournament Medvedev was 5-1 up in the third set but Nadal fought back to win.

Medvedev is playing the tennis of his life. He won the title in Paris on indoor courts. He hasn’t lost a set this week. His performance last night was in stark contrast to that of Dominic Thiem. Both of them had already qualified for the semi finals. Thiem either couldn’t lift himself to compete against Rublev whereas Medvedev was clearly up for the fight against Schwartzman and was clearly enjoying himself.

Nadal lost to Thiem in 2 tie breaks and needed 3 sets to beat Tsitsipas. He has served well all week and looked very impressive in the first match against Rublev. He doesn’t have an amazing record at the O2 Arena. It’s not a bad record but since reaching the final in 2013 a semi final in 2015 was his best result.

Both players have held over 90% of service games this week. Medvedev held 96% of his service games. All stats for the tournament favour him. This should be a great match. It is hard to go against Medvedev in his current form but we don’t often see Nadal priced above 2.00 pre match.

There is a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. The value is on Nadal. He will need to be at the very top of his game to beat Medvedev. Medvedev has been broken once in 6 sets this week. He should believe that he can beat Nadal though his choke from 5-1 up in their meeting last year does suggest that he didn’t believe in him self enough. He is a very different player right now. My gut feeling is that Medvedev takes this.

Lay the set 1 winner.

 

Round Robin stage

Nadal (1.41) v Tsitsipas (3.4)

Due to start at 8 pm

Nadal leads their previous matches 6-1. The last time they met was in an exhibition in Abu Dhabi in December 2019. He won on a hard court in a third set tie break. He won at this tournament last year in 3 sets. Tsitsipas’ win was on clay in the Madrid semi final in 2019. He won in 3 sets.

Tsitsipas won this tournament last season. His only loss was to Nadal. His only strong indoor result in 2020 was his title in Marseille in February. He has not quite matched his 2019 form this season but has seemed very motivated this week. He needed 3 sets in both his matches but was only broken once in each one.

Nadal went out in the round robin stages last year despite winning 2 of his 3 matches. He was impressive in his first match against Rublev this week and didn’t face a single break point. He was only broken once by Thiem but lost the match in 2 tie breaks. Even with Tsitsipas at his best in 2019 he still got beaten by Nadal.

This will be a close match. They are playing for a place in the semi finals. We have a decent chance of it going to 3 sets. There is some value on Tsitsipas. Stats for the week are close but favour Nadal. I give a slight edge to Nadal but he is priced too low. Lay Nadal around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.60. Back Nadal around 1.85 to 2.00.