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WTA Doha
Parks v Zheng 1.43
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Zheng in 2. Parks won on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Zheng.

Parks reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. This time, she again came through the qual rounds. 3rd set tie break win over Shnaider in the 1st round.
Quarter finals in Jiujiang 2025, Semi finals in Monterrey 2025.

Zheng lost in the 2nd round last year. 3 sets win over Kenin in the 1st round.
Quarter finals in Miami 2025, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Zheng in 2 sets.

Update: By match time, Zheng’s price had dropped to 1.36. Parks served first. She was taken to deuce but held. The next 3 games were all easy holds. Parks served at 2-2. She faced 2 break points that she saved. She faced another and this time, she was broken.

Zheng’s price dropped to 1.22. I was expecting Parks to be competitive so I laid Zheng. Her next service game was a long one. She faced a break point at 30-40. She saved it and then had a game point. She faced another break point and saved that one too. After 3 more deuces, she faced a third break point which Parks took. Zheng’s price hit 1.51. I backed Zheng with the same stake that I had used to lay her. That kept the profit on Zheng and gave me zero on Parks.

Parks had an easy hold to lead 4-3. In her next service game, Zheng faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. That was followed by another easy hold for Parks.

Zheng served at 4-5. She faced a break point/set point. Zheng’s price hit 2.22. I already had a free bet on her. I placed a small top up back at 2.22. Zheng saved the break point and went on to hold after another 2 deuces. I removed my small liability at 1.70 to leave a slight bigger free bet on Zheng.

The next 2 games were holds and they went to a tie break. Zheng took the tie break 7-4.

Both players had reasonable stats in that set. Parks’ first serve % was good at 68%. She won 82% of points on first serve. Her second serve was well below tour average at 23% of points won. Zheng had a slightly lower first serve % at 59%. First serve points won were lower than her opponent’s at 63%. She was above tour average for second serve points won at 55%.

I saw no reason why Parks should not be competitive in the next set if she could handle the disappointment of losing the first set.

As I had the free bet on Zheng, I could lay her at 1.22 and keep it risk free. Zheng served first and held to 0. Parks held serve after saving a break point. In her next service game, Zheng was broken to 0. My position was risk free so I wanted to give Parks the chance to hold serve. She held easily to 15. Zheng’s price moved to 1.51.

In the next game, Zheng faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged evenly at 1.64. Zheng saved the break point and would have to saved another 2 before holding. Easy hold for Parks in the next game and she led 4-2. The next 2 games were holds. Zheng served at 3-5 and was broken after saving 3 break points. That gave Parks the set.

Not surprisingly, Parks had the stronger stats in that second set. Her first serve % and first serve points won %’s were a little lower than in the first set but she had significantly improved her second serve, winning an above tour average 56% of points on it. Zheng’s first serve % and first serve points won %’s remained the same as in set 1. Her second serve points won were lower than in the first set at 46% which is a little below the tour average.

Parks served first in the third set. I was happy with the profit so wasn’t sure if I was going to enter again. Parks was broken in the first game. Zheng’s price dropped to 1.38. I would have wanted a lower price to go against her. I waited. The next 3 games were comfortable holds.

Parks served at 1-3. She went 40-15 ahead but was broken. I didn’t enter again. There were no more breaks and Zheng took the set 6-2.

Zheng won 7-6, 3-6, 6-2.