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WTA Cincinnati
Townsend 1.66 v Osorio
Due to start at 4 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Townsend 1-0 (July 2025, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s favour Townsend.

Townsend reached the 3rd round last year.
Final in Austin 2026, 4th Round at the US Open 2025.

Osorio reached the 2nd round last season.
3rd Round in Indian Wells 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Townsend.
Back Townsend around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Townsend in 2 sets.

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Update: Townsend served first. She went 15-40 behind. She recovered to hold.
1-0

Osorio held to 30.
1-1

Townsend was broken to 30. I backed Townsend at 2.02. As it was not quite the price that I wanted, I reduced stake a little.
1-2

The next 2 games were holds.
1-3
2-3

Osorio faced a break point at 30-40. Townsend’s price dropped to 1.75. I removed half of my liability at 1.75. Osorio saved the break point and saved another before holding.
2-4

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
3-4
3-5

Townsend was broken to 15 to give the set to Osorio.
3-6

Osorio only lost 1 point on her first serve. She was only getting 39% of her first serves into play though. Townsend had a better first serve percentage at 66%. She only won 58% of points on that first serve though. She usually served better than that. If she could improve her serve in the next set, she had a great chance.
After the set, Osorio was priced at 1.46/1.47.

Osorio served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.47.

Osorio faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold.
0-1

The next 5 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
1-2
2-2
2-3
3-3

Osorio was broken to 15. I removed liability at 2.00, leaving the profit on Townsend.
4-3

Townsend held to 30 and then broke Osorio to take the set. I hedged at 1.58 on Townsend’s ladder (The same as 2.72 on Osorio).
5-3
6-3

Townsend’s stats were much improved in that set. She won 73% of points on her first serve. Osorio was struggling and won just over half her service points.

After the set, Townsend was priced at 1.57-1.58.

Townsend served first in the third set. She held to 15.
1-0

Osorio was broken to 30. I used some of the profit to lay Townsend at 1.17.
2-0

Townsend was broken after being taken to deuce twice.
2-1

Osorio held after being taken to deuce. I hedged at 1.66.
2-2

Townsend held to 15.
3-2

Osorio was broken to 30.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds.
5-2
5-3
6-3

Townsend won 3-6, 6-3, 6-3.