Quarter Final

Kasatkina (1.64) v Kudermetova (2.52)

Due to start at 15:30

This will be their first meeting.

Long term, overall win percentages are a little stronger for Kasatkina. Her lead is bigger for matches in the last 12 months. Both players have good indoor results. Kasatkina’s long term indoor results are a lot stronger, Her lead isn’t as big for matches in the last year.

Kudermetova needed a third set tie break in the last round as a very strong pre match favourite. Kamilla Rakhimova was badly undervalued in that match and looked like she was going to edge it towards the end of the match. Kudermetova had a couple of quarter finals indoors towards the end of last season. She reached the second round of this tournament in 2020.

Kasatkina also needed a third set tie break in the last round against Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Sasnovich took the opening set. Both players had problems on serve. Kasatkina was broken 8 times and Sasnovich 9 times. they were both broken 3 times in the deciding set. Kasatkina has struggled on serve this week but her return game has been strong. Last season she reached the semis in Lyon in March. That was her only f=good indoor tournament in 2020 and she lost in the first round in St Petersburg.

I think this will be a long match. We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets and we can expect a few breaks of serve. I give Kasatkina the edge. She has been in great form this year.

Back Kasatkina around 2.20. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: Kasatkina made a slow start and lost the opening set easily. She was broken twice in the set. Her stats for the set weren’t terrible but Kudermetova’s first serve was excellent. She hit 86% of first serves in and lost just 3 points on that first serve. In the second set Kasatkina’s serve was very strong. She only lost 5 points on serve. Kudermetova’s serve really started to let her down in that set.
In the deciding set it was a repeat of the second. Kasatkina’s serve wasn’t quite as sharp as it was in the second set but Kudermetova’s didn’t improve at all.
Kasatkina won 1-6, 6-1, 6-2.

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Zhu (2.46) v Zheng (1.67)

Due to start at 7 pm

Zheng has won all 3 of their previous matches. The last time they met was in July 2018 on a hard court in Nanchang. She won in 3 sets, All their matches were on hard courts and the last 2 went to a deciding set.

Overall results are better for Zhu. Her long term hard court results are also stronger.

Even though Zhu has the better results she hasn’t made it through many second rounds on hard courts. The last time was in Acapulco in February last season. This week she beat Bouchard in 2 very tight sets. Bouchard reached the final last week in Guadalajara.

Zheng has won 1 of 7 on hard courts this season. She beat Gracheva in straight sets as underdog in the last round. Before this week the last time she made it through the first round was in Doha in February 2020.

Some value on Zhu and I think we get 3 sets. Lay Zheng around 1.40 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.80. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: Absolutely awful performance from Zhu. Zheng’s price graph will have been a straight line down to 1.01. No real chance to manage the position other than to take the hit. Disappointing.
Zheng won 6-1, 6-2.